Valero Texas Open Expert Picks: Our Experts' Longshot Picks

Valero Texas Open Expert Picks: Our Experts' Longshot Picks

We're just one week away from golf's Super Bowl, the Masters, but this week's Valero Texas Open is a great way to pad your bankroll ahead of the biggest golf event in the world. And, what better way to maximize profit than with a longshots winner?

Geoff Fienberg, Rick Gehman, Andy Lack, Brian Kirschner, Bradley Todd, Sam Eaton and Tom Jacobs get together to give us their favorite Valero Texas Open pick at odds of +3500 or longer.

This week, seven different handicappers produced seven different picks for their Valero Texas Open outright winner, which is rare in this weekly article as our golf experts usually find some common ground. This week's Valero Texas Open picks are as short as +5000 but get as long as +25000. That means a $100 bet could profit you $25,000! So, let's take a look at everyone's favorite golf picks as our experts break down their Valero Texas Open longshot picks.

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Valero Texas Open Longshot Picks

Geoff Fienberg: Robby Shelton (+9000) (Bet $100 to collect $9,100)

Shelton appears like an ideal fit for TPC San Antonio, as a player who continues to be at the top of his tee-to-green game due to his great approach play (ranking 36th this season). The putter has remained elusive to Shelton this season but I'm willing to trust his driving accuracy and approach play on a course that will cause lots of problems for many in the field. The Oaks course presents an ideal opportunity for his skill set, we hope the 4x Korn Ferry Tour winner can find his breakthrough.

-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)

Rick Gehman: Sam Ryder (+7000) (Bet $100 to collect $7,100)

Ryder has earned (4) Top 20 finishes in his last six starts which include some big-time events on the schedule -- Torrey Pines, Phoenix Open, Riviera and Valspar. He's been red hot with the putter, which admittedly concerns me a bit -- however, his long-term approach play is stellar. If he can marry those two items together this week, he could contend in a field this weak.

-- Rick Gehman (@RickRunGood)

Andy Lack: Nick Taylor (+5000) (Bet $100 to collect $5,100)

Nick Taylor has quietly been playing some excellent golf and was able to back up a runner-up finish at the Waste Management Open with another top-10 at the Valspar Championship where he gained over four strokes on approach. My numbers suggest he should be getting more respect on the odds board than his price of +5000, and I will gladly take my chances on the Canadian.

-- Andy Lack (@adplacksports)

Brian Kirschner: Greyson Sigg (+25000) (Bet $100 to collect $25,100)

We saw JJ Spaun emerge on top at last year’s Valero Texas Open at similar odds, why can't Greyson do the same? I expected Sigg to be around +10000, this week, so I am more than happy to hop on at +25000 at FanDuel, which is much higher than other books are offering.

There has been a trend over the past of winners of this event gaining strokes on approach in their last start before this event. Sigg was about to gain 4.6 strokes in his last start at the Valspar. This was good enough to rank 7th in the field in this category.

Admittedly, Sigg hasn't been in the best of form, but it was not that long ago that he made eight cuts in a row that included three top-15 finishes. I think he had a productive week off an is ready to contend this week at the Valero Texas Open.

-- Brian Kirschner (@BrianKirschner_)

Bradley Todd: Kevin Chappell (+18000) (Bet $100 to collect $18,100)

I was on Kevin Chappell last week at the Corales Championship and I'm gonna give him another go for this one. Immediately what stands out is his course form. He's a previous winner, has a runner-up and a 4th place finish. He's also finished inside the top 20 a couple of times and has only missed the cut three times from 10 starts. He's a typical course horse. We see quite a few of them here with Charley Hoffman being the standout. If you couple that with his recent form which reads 29th at the Honda, 15th at the Puerto Rico Open & 16th at the Corales in his last three starts. He looks like a lively longshot. The stats that we received from the Corales event are limited but he ranked 12th in Driving Distance, 21st in Driving Accuracy and 27th in GIR which is solid. In his last three events, he has gotten off to a slow start and progressively gotten better as the week goes on. A hot start could be all he needs to get himself in contention.

-- Bradley Todd (@Bradley_Todd)

Sam Eaton: Ryan Palmer (+10000) (Bet $100 to collect $10,100)

I didn't really want to pick Ryan Palmer for my long shot this week as he's hardly what you'd call a winner on the PGA Tour. However, his stats add up in the model at an event he's done well in the past. He has finished in the top 10 at the Valero Texas Open, and coming into the event he ranks 6th in terms of ball striking in the last three months, 8th SG par 5's, 11th SG Approach and 8th Opportunities gained. I don't love betting on Ryan Palmer, but he can't be ignored. The alternative on the list was Garrick Higgo.

-- Sam Eaton (@SamEaton12)

Tom Jacobs: Ben Martin (+9000) (Bet $100 to collect $9,100)

I like a couple of longshots this week, and one of the others is David Lingmerth at +11000 who is in stellar form. You can read why I like Lingmerth here, and we will instead focus on the (slightly) more modestly priced, Ben Martin here.

Martin has finished inside the top 13 in three of his past five starts, and made the cut in the other weeks as well, at the Players Championship and the Valspar.

It appears then, that Martin's best finishes come when the field strength drops and that is the case this week. He was 13th at Pebble, 5th at the Honda and 8th last week at the Corales, and the latter two look like good pointers to this week.

Martin is 4/5 for made cuts here, in his PGA Tour career, and when TPC San Antonio hosted a Korn Ferry Tour event in 2020, he also finished T9 there.

His best finish here remains a 34th-place effort, but he was 27th thru two rounds here last year, and the signs are there to suggest he's getting comfortable with the layout.

J.J Spaun had modest course history before his win, with a T27 his best effort before last year, and Martin comes with a similar profile this week.

At his best, he has already proven capable of winning on the PGA Tour (2014 Shriners) and I am willing to bet he can double that tally this week, and book a spot at the US Masters too.

-- Tom Jacobs (@TomJacobs93)