Valero Texas Open Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Wallace, Martin to Win in Texas

Valero Texas Open Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Wallace, Martin to Win in Texas

Since returning to this part of the schedule in 2019, the Valero Texas Open has been played three times, and we have seen two players book spots in the following week's US Masters with a win.

In 2019, Corey Conners Monday Qualified for this event, and then went on to win it, to put together one of the biggest two-week stretches in golf that season. That win got him into his first-ever Masters, and whilst he could only finish T46 that year, he has since finished inside the top 10 on three straight occasions. Building an affinity with such a historic golf course is massive, and it all came with a win here.

J.J. Spaun also secured his first win and subsequently his first start at the Masters with a win here last year, and he fared better than Conners initially did at Augusta, with a T23 finish.

Jordan Spieth won the 2021 renewal of this event, and it was canceled in 2020, so since its return to this slot, we have only three Texas Opens, but it's safe to say, expect a player to book a spot in the Masters next week.

Favorites like Tyrrell Hatton, Corey Conners, and Si Woo Kim are all in the field next week, but Rickie Fowler needs a win to get in. Fowler won't qualify for a sleeper and value pick this week, but he's certainly one to keep an eye on.

Let's now turn our attention to who we can bet at +4000 and bigger to win the event this week, and which trends suggest a longshot could get the job done here.

Before we get into the Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2023 Valero Texas Open, check out this offer from DraftKings Sportsbook. With the DraftKings promo code, you will bet $5, win $150 if your golfer win this weekend, giving you a +3000 odds boost on your favorite play.

What Skillset is Required to Succeed at the 2023 Valero Texas Open?

Here are the top statistics to look at, ahead of the 2023 Valero Texas Open

• Par 4 Scoring - The last four winners of the Valero Texas Open have ranked inside the top 3 for Par 4 Scoring. Bogeys are certainly going to be made on the tougher Par 3s and birdies or better are expected on the Par 5s, but how you play in the Par 4s may well determine how good of a week you have.
• Putting Average - The last four winners of the Valero Texas Open have ranked 4th or better in Putting Average the week they won, with the last three ranking 1st.
• SG Tee to Green - This is an all-around test of golf, and it shows. The last four winners have all ranked inside the top 5 for SG Tee to Green the week they won, with the three winners before last year all ranking inside the top 4 for SG Approach as well. J.J. Spaun ranked 23rd for Approach when winning last year.

Valero Texas Open Trends

To help you with your 2023 Valero Texas Open value and sleeper picks, here are multiple trends that might help you narrow down those that can actually contend at TPC San Antonio

• 5 of the past 8 winners of this event had previously posted a Top 30 at the Valero Texas Open, before winning for the first time
• 5 of the past 8 winners of the event were winning on the PGA Tour for the first time
• Only 6 of the past 12 winners of the Valero Texas Open had posted a top 10 in the same calendar year, before their win here.
• Five of the winners of this event since 2011, have also posted top 12 finishes at the Sony Open. Jimmy Walker has won both events. Jordan Spieth and Corey Conners won here and finished 3rd at the Sony. Brendan Steele who won here in 2011 has twice traded at odds-on at the Sony Open only to lose out on the final day.

These two trends suggest we are looking for:

• Someone who has finished T30 or better at TPC San Antonio before
• Potentially someone who has not yet won on the PGA Tour
• Someone who has played well at the Sony Open
• A player who is still looking to book a spot at Augusta

Clearly, we have some strong trends, all of which are volatile, however, and should be treated with caution. There is every chance a player who has already won on Tour wins this week, and it could easily be someone who is in strong current form. The strongest indicator may well be the course form, which suggests at least one good effort in the past here could prove the difference this week.

Do Sleeper and Value Picks Win The Valero Texas Open

Here are the pre-tournament odds of the last 10 winners of the Valero Texas Open

2022 - J.J Spaun +15000

2021 - Jordan Spieth +1200

2019 - Corey Conners +20000

2018 - Andrew Landry +20000

2017 - Kevin Chappell +3300

2016 - Charley Hoffman +3000

2015 - Jimmy Walker +2500

2014 - Steven Bowditch +35000

2013 - Martin Laird +10000

2012 - Ben Curtis +15000

Clearly, value and sleeper picks do well at the Valero Texas Open, with really only one favorite (Jordan Spieth) coming through in this event over the past decade.

Corey Conners wasn't in the initial field for this event or the Masters when he won in 2019, but by Monday qualifying for this event and then winning, he changed his career for the better, in a fortnight.

Find a longshot like these above, that you think can come through and claim that prize of a 2023 US Masters spot with a win here!

Value and Sleeper Selections for the 2023 Valero Texas Open

Here are my value and sleeper selections for the 2023 Valero Texas Open. All of these plays are +4000 or bigger in the outright market, to ensure they meet our sleepers and value picks criteria.

Matt Wallace +4500 Outright (Claim a $50 Free Bet on DraftKings for This Pick)

Matt Wallace landed the first PGA Tour win of his career last week, at the Corales Puntacana Championship, and that came one week after finishing 7th at the Valspar Championship, where he was right in the mix as well.

The Englishman is more than capable of winning multiple times in a season. having won six times in one season on the Alps Tour, and then three times in one season on the DP World Tour.

That run on the DP World Tour in 2018 was in no small part down to Wallace chasing a Ryder Cup spot, and now, with a potential Masters spot on the line, I can foresee another inspired performance from the Englishman.

One concern is that his performances immediately after a win have never been great. In 2017 when he won the co-sanctioned Open de Portugal, he then went to the Rocco Forte Open and finished T38 on his next start.

In 2018, despite winning three times, it was a similar story the week after a win. He won the Hero Indian Open to kick off his run in 2018 but followed it up with back-to-back missed cuts. He won again three months later at the BMW International Open, but again went on to struggle, this time missing four cuts in a row. He won again in Denmark in September, but after missing out on a Ryder Cup spot, he struggled, finishing T51 and T44 on his next two starts.

I am going to alleviate the above concerns, although important to note, with some clear counters this time around. Firstly, Wallace is now on a run of 7th and 1st, so it's not like he just got hot for one week, he has sustained form and capped it off with a win. Secondly, he is now chasing a spot in the Masters, which provides the added motivation he needs to go back-to-back, and only another win will get him in. Thirdly, he chased Jordan Spieth down in 2021, to make a run at his first Tour win here, two years ago, but ultimately finished 3rd. Nevertheless, that effort suggests he likes this course.

Finally, even if his results one start later have looked poor after a win, he knows how to put multiple wins together in a season, and he's never been in a better position to back-to-back, as he heads to a course he likes, with a spot at Augusta on the line.

Ben Martin +9000 Outright (Claim a $50 Free Bet on DraftKings for This Pick)

Ben Martin is back playing some tremendous golf on the PGA Tour, and as a former winner at this level, and someone who has two more wins on the Korn Ferry Tour, it is not hard to put faith in him when in form.

His +9000 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook look incredibly generous when you consider he's finished inside the top 13 in three of his past five starts and clearly thrives when the field is weaker.

Martin's best efforts this season have come at The Honda Classic (T5), the Corales Puntacana Championship (T8), and Pebble Beach (T13), all events that featured good players, but were significantly weaker than the elevated events.

The fact he made the cut at both the Players and the Valspar before his 8th place finish last week suggests he's in consistently solid form, and it is just field-strength dependent as to when he can capitalize.

He now returns to TPC San Antonio where he is 4/5 for made cuts on the PGA Tour, with a best of 34th two years ago, and where he also finished T9 on the Korn Ferry Tour. Yes, his Korn Ferry effort came in weaker company, but I was encouraged to see he posted his best result at this event a year later, and even last year when 63rd, he was T27 at the halfway stage. Now back to playing some of the most consistent golf of his career, Martin can follow in Corey Conners and J.J Spaun's footsteps and turn in a big week into a career changer here. A T7 finish at the Sony Open in the past was the final icing on the cake for me when it came to picking Ben Martin this week.

David Lingemerth +11000 Outright (Place a No Sweat Bet up to $1000 on this Pick at FanDuel)

David Lingmerth, like Ben Martin, is a former winner on the PGA Tour who has certainly returned to form this season, and he can now play his way into the US Masters, an event he played once in 2016.

Lingmerth has finished inside the top 11 five times this season, most recently when T6 at The Players Championship. He followed that effort up with a T27 finish at the Valspar, where he sat 10th going into the final round.

The Swede now returns to TPC San Antonio for the first time since 2018, when he finished T51. After missing his first two cuts here, Lingmerth has since finished T44 and T51, and now he can build on both of those efforts and post a career-best and potentially get the win his good form has been building towards.

5th and 18th place finishes at Colonial suggest he likes playing in Texas, and his 8th place finish at Mayakoba and 13th place finish at the Sony Open in the past also suggest he could like it more here on his fifth-course start, as success at both of those courses correlates well here.

When 44th at this event, he was better placed after 36 holes, sitting 18th at the halfway stage, and his current confidence, form, and the fact the Texas Open has moved to this part of the schedule since he last played it, all work in his favor. He's another that will be hugely motivated to get into the Masters, and he typically plays well at this time of year as well.

Back the overpriced Lingmerth at +11000 at FanDuel.