2024 John Deere Classic Sleepers and Value Picks: Back Dunlap, Glover in Illinois

2024 John Deere Classic Sleepers and Value Picks: Back Dunlap, Phillips in Illinois

After a couple of weeks of watching Scottie Scheffler winning signature events either side of Bryson DeChambeau's U.S. Open win, we saw Cam Davis (+6600) pick up a win at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Now, we have another chance at finding a longshot winner at the John Deere Classic, with the clear favorite, Patrick Cantlay withdrawing before Thursday's opening round.

That leaves Sepp Straka, Sungjae Im, and Jordan Spieth vying for favoritism in the John Deere Classic outright market, which makes it look like a very open odds board this week.

With a couple of weeks until the Open Championship, it is the Scottish Open next week that will attract the elite field and give pointers to the final major of the year, but this John Deere is wide open and it feels like many different players can win.

There are plenty of players at +4000 and beyond, but is there enough quality in the field to feel confident about this week's selections? I think so, and I will get into all the reasons why, below.

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What Skill Set is Required to Win The 2024 John Deere Classic?

Here are some standout statistics to focus on ahead of the 2024 John Deere Classic this week. This is an all-round test, where all facets of your game will be firing to go low enough, but which will stand out.

Bentgrass Putting- Putting will be a huge factor this week, with the last four winners ranking, 4th, 31st, 19th, and 2nd in putting the week they won. Poston was 31st in putting the week he won, but he also led the field in Tee to Green and Around the Green and ranked top 15 in both Off the Tee and Approach, so he was superb everywhere else. To get to the required number this week, putts will need to drop on these Bentgrass greens.

Birdie or Better Percentage - The winning score has surpassed the -20 mark in 7 of the last 10 renewals, including four of the last five. Lucas Glover won at -19 to stop a five-year streak of the winning score getting to -20 or beyond. You simply HAVE to make birdies here, and you will therefore be looking at players who have excelled in that department this season.

SG Approach - Favor approach play over driving here, as you do not need to hit every fairway to contend here, but you do have to continuously circle the hole with your approaches to keep up.

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win the John Deere Classic?

Below are the pre-tournament odds of each of the last ten winners of the John Deere Classic.

2023 - Sepp Straka +6000

2022 - J.T. Poston +5000

2021 - Lucas Glover +5000

2019 - Dylan Frittelli +9000

2018 - Michael Kim +30000

2017 - Bryson DeChambeau +5000

2016 - Ryan Moore +2500

2015 - Jordan Spieth +400

2014 - Brian Harman +12500

2013 - Jordan Spieth +4000

Jordan Spieth (+400) is the only favorite to win here since 2013 and Ryan Moore (+2500) is the only other player short of +4000 to win here over the past 10 renewals. This gives us plenty of confidence coming into the week.

John Deere Classic Betting Trends, Correlating Courses

The John Deere Classic has been a staple of the PGA Tour for years now, and there is plenty of data to observe as we look for betting trends. We will also look for the most obvious correlating course for this event.

Great Event for Veterans - While this has been a good course for breakthrough youngsters, there have been plenty of experienced players who have added to their collection here. Zach Johnson was a 10-time winner as a professional before winning here in 2012, Jordan Spieth had won six times before his 2015 win, Ryan Moore was a four-time winner before claiming victory here in 2016, and Lucas Glover had notched four wins before his 2021 victory as well. Don't be afraid of taking a wily veteran at an undemanding golf course.

Previous Look Advantageous - 10 of the last 11 winners of this event had played here at least once before winning here. Over the past 12 years, only Dylan Frittelli has won on debut.

Top 5 on the Season a Pointer - 9 of the last 11 winners here have finished inside the top 5 in the same season, before winning here at the John Deere Classic. Michael Kim and Frittelli were the outliers.

Correlating Course: TPC Summerlin Provides Plenty of Crossover

TPC Summerlin looks like a standout course correlation this week, with no less than three players winning both events, and many more contending at both.

Below are the results that lead me to believe that the Shriners Open is an event to consider.

• Bryson DeChambeau - Won Both
• Ryan Moore - Won Both
• Jonathan Byrd - Won Both
• J.T. Poston - Won Here, 3rd and 4th at the Shriners
• Lucas Glover - Won Here, 3rd at the Shriners
• Ben Martin - Won Shriners, 2nd Here
• Troy Matteson - Won Shriners, 2nd and 3rd Here
• Kevin Na - Two-time Shriners Winner, 2nd Here
• Sam Ryder - 2nd Here, 3rd Shriners
• David Hearn - 2nd Here, 5th and 7th Shriners
• Adam Schenk - 4th Here twice, 3rd and 12th Shriners
• Joel Dahmen - 2nd Here, 7th and 9th Shriners

Colonial Country Club Also Worthy of Consideration

It is also worth looking at form in the Charles Schwab Challenge, at Colonial Country Club.

Jordan Spieth, Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker, and Kenny Perry have all won here at TPC Deere Run and Colonial Country Club

Sean O'Hair has finished 2nd at both

Emiliano Grillo won the Charles Schwab and has finished 2nd here

Sepp Straka won this last year and finished 5th at Colonial earlier this year.

Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2024 John Deere Classic

Here are my picks at +4000 and bigger for the 2024 John Deere Classic.

Nick Dunlap +4000 (BetMGM)

While a few may point to Nick Dunlap being +4000 this week as a representation of how weak this field is, I instead want to focus on the positives of why he's this high up on the odds board.

If you are looking for a player who has the perfect profile for a low-scoring event, you have it in Nick Dunlap, who won the American Express as an amateur earlier this season, before finishing 10th last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

When he's struggled it has generally been on tougher courses, and he won't have to worry about that this week.

Since winning the Amex, Dunlap has posted strong finishes at the Houston Open (11th), the Wells Fargo (24th), the Memorial (12th), and the Rocket Mortgage (10th). He spiked with his irons in all of these, but it has been his putter that has been the difference in those weeks.

I think he is a perfect fit for this event, and while it may be hard to see him win two in the same season as a 20-year-old, he is more than capable.

5th in Approach and 11th in Tee to Green last week, Dunlap recorded some fine strokes-gained numbers last week, and that certainly caught the eye.

Lucas Glover +6000 (FanDuel)

From a player at the start of his career to one in the twilight years, Lucas Glover is a former winner of this event who I think can go well again here at the John Deere Classic.

Glover is hitting the ball nicely in 2024, particularly on approach and while his missed cuts at the US Open and the Memorial have halted his progress, he was on a good run coming into the third major of the year.

He can pick himself up again here at TPC Deere Run, where he has finished 10th-1st-MC-6th in his last four starts and I fully expect him to do so.

Glover was far from convincing at the Travelers, but he signed off with a 66, his best round of the week, and he will hopefully take confidence from that round, into this week.

Neal Shipley +9000 (bet365)

Back to the youngsters then, and it is Neal Shipley that has really caught my eye this year.

While Luke Clanton recorded an eye-catching top 10 at the Rocket Mortgage, it is Shipley who has finished as the low Amateur at both at The Masters and the US Open, and he himself finished 20th last week.

Shipley regressed as the week went on in terms of position last week, but it was another fine four-round display, and he can use that experience as he looks to stay the course this week.

A 26th-place finish at the US Open would be eye-catching for many players in this field, but when it's a player who is new to the Tour, I think we should pay close attention.

On his first start on the PGA Tour as a professional, Shipley ranked 6th in both SG Approach and Tee to Green, and I am confident the rookie is somewhat of a gamer.

He hasn't had the same recognition as someone like Ludvig Aberg, Michael Thorbjornsen, or even his fellow US Amateur finalist, Nick Dunlap, but Shipley seemingly knows how to score, as evidenced by getting to the final against Dunlap in that US Am before eventually losing. He has plenty of pedigree at the Amateur level, and he has made a seamless transition into the pro ranks so far.

I think we take a shot at Shipley before another strong performance starts to really crash his price.

Chandler Phillips +15000 (Caesars)

Another relative newcomer to the PGA Tour is Chandler Phillips, and while at 27, he's not in the same position as Nick Dunlap and Neal Shipley, there is still seemingly plenty more to come from Phillips.

Phillips has been a professional for five years and has already picked up a win on the Korn Ferry Tour, back in 2023. That helped him secure his PGA Tour card, and he has taken full advantage of his playing opportunities so far.

Six top 25s already in 2024 shows a certain level of consistency early in his PGA Tour career, and spike weeks at the Valspar (3rd) and the Canadian Open (10th) show what sort of level he can get to at his best.

At the American Express earlier in the year, Phillips was very good with his irons and shot his lowest round to date on Tour, with a 63. His performances at the Valspar and Colonial (T12) are particularly encouraging, considering the leaderboard crossover from those events. We have already covered Colonial, but there are also four players who have won the John Deere Classic and the Valspar, so that T12 finish at the latter is a nice addition for Phillips.

He didn't have his best stuff last week, but I think he can bounce back quickly, and he's a big price to do so.

Dylan Frittelli +50000 (FanDuel)

Finally, I can't resist a small bet on former John Deere Classic winner, Dylan Frittelli who is still 500-1 to win this week, despite winning again on the DP World Tour earlier this season.

It has been a lean period for the South African in recent years, but a return to the European Tour has certainly reignited his form, and in addition to that win in Bahrain earlier this year, Frittelli has finished 33rd or better in three of his last four starts.

When he was 20th at the European Open four starts ago, Frittelli was 10th going into the final round, and at the Scandinavian Mixed, he was 2nd after round 1 and still 8th going into the weekend. He could only finish 20th that week, and four great rounds have been a problem for him, but I think we are being more than compensated for that.

Frittelli won here on debut in 2019, beating Russell Henley by two strokes, and getting to -21 in his first John Deere Classic. Since then his form reads MC-20-MC here, but I am still interested in his chances here at huge odds.

He hit his irons really nicely in Holland a couple of weeks ago, where a terrible putter let him down, and I could see him getting hot with his approaches again here, as he did in Bahrain when he won and at the KLM Open a fortnight ago when he missed the cut.

I couldn't look past a former winner who has already picked up a win this season and will come here with a bit more confidence than he has done in recent seasons.