John Deere Classic Betting Picks, Odds, Course Preview and Prediction
The PGA Tour heads back to Illinois for the John Deere Classic this week. Andy Lack shares his John Deere Classic betting picks, odds, course preview, and prediction. Don't miss out on these Golf picks.
John Deere Classic Betting Picks, Odds, Course Preview and Prediction
The PGA Tour returns to Illinois for the John Deere Classic, a staple on the schedule since 1971. Formerly known as the "Quad Cities Open," John Deere took over as the title sponsor in 1999, and TPC Deere Run has been the host venue ever since. While the event rarely ever boasts a star-studded field, the John Deere generally attracts a great deal of local support, and features a long history of dramatic finishes.
In search of his first victory in nearly two years, Patrick Cantlay will be making his debut appearance in the Quad Cities, while another searching star in Jordan Spieth will also return to TPC Deere Run in hopes of reclaiming former glory. Spieth famously won the John Deere Classic in 2013, just two weeks shy of his 20th birthday, becoming the first teenager to win on the PGA Tour since 1931. The field sees a rather significant drop off in star power and talent once we get past the aforementioned Cantlay and Spieth, as similar to last week, many of the Tour's best players will be resting up before the Open Championship at Royal Troon in just two weeks’ time.
John Deere Classic DATE, START TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: July 4 - 7, 2024
- Where: Silvis, IL
- Where to Watch: Golf Channel, NBC, Peacock
John Deere CLASSIC ODDS
- Winner: Patrick Cantlay (+900), Sepp Straka (+2000), Sungjae Im (+2000)
Click here for the latest the John Deere Classic odds
John Deere Classic: Course Preview
TPC Deere Run
Bent-grass Birdie-fest season rolls on, as TPC Deere Run requires a very similar skill-set to what was necessary last week at Detroit Golf Club. The D.A. Weibring desing remains a fairly standard run-of-the-mill PGA Tour golf course, that plays on the far easier end in terms of scoring conditions. Featuring extremely wide fairways and receptive greens, bombers and shorter hitters have both found avenues to success. Similar to Detroit Golf Club, this is not a golf course that great penalizes shorter and inaccurate players, and both courses rank amongst the easiest on Tour. Detroit Golf Club features more challenging and undulating greens, but TPC Deere Run features one less par five and a few longer par fours.
Thunderstorms are often prevalent in the area this time of year, and the greens often get overwatered. We can come to expect a lush and receptive golf course, and 50% of the holes at TPC Deere Run feature over a 20% birdie rate. Last year, it ranked as the ninth-easiest course on the PGA TOUR, and the Weibring design has ranked inside the top 10 easiest courses on the PGA Tour each of the last five years. It features the second easiest set of par threes on the PGA Tour, and the seventh easiest set of set of par fours. All three of the par fives measure between 560 and 596 yards, feature over a 30% birdie rate, and expect to be reachable by nearly all players in the field.
Michael Kim explained the formula well after his 2018 victory, "Guys like Zach Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Steve Stricker, you know, guys that don't necessarily bomb the ball, but with a good wedge game and putting, they can do well out here. So kind of along that same mold. Greens are great. They're soft, they're rolling true, and they're Bent greens, so you just got to hit your line." D.A. Points echoed a similar sentiment, "Again, for lack of a better term, it's a putting contest and that's why Steve Stricker and Zach Johnson win a lot because they make everything. I shoot under par every time I come here, it's just not enough to see the weekend." Both Kim and Points are correct.
The John Deere Classic is a putting contest in its truest sense, and as discussed last week, these types of events are extremely volatile and challenging to predict. Michael Kim came here in 2018 with the form of three missed cuts in a row, but he gained a whopping 13 strokes putting and won the event at 300/1. This week, I will primarily be looking for elite wedge players and with a high spike putting percentage who consistently raise their baseline in easy scoring conditions.
John Deere Classic Key Stats
- Strokes Gained Putting: Bent-grass
- Strokes Gained Approach
- Strokes Gained Total: Easy Scoring Conditions
John Deere Classic: Outright Picks
Sungjae Im (+2000) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Sungjae Im has been starting to play some much better golf of late, and now he travels to a golf course that should fit his skill-set to a tee. Im is coming off a third-place finish at the Travelers Championship where he gained strokes in all four major categories, including over five on approach. The three-time PGA Tour winner has now finished top-10 in four of his last six starts, and all aspects of his game are trending in the right direction. Iron play has been a concern for Im all season, but he is coming off his best approach performance of the season. While Sungjae has only recorded two middling finishes at TPC Deere Run, he has played well at many of the similar comparative courses, and I completely trust his putter to keep up in a low scoring affair.
Seamus Power (+8000) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Coming off a top-20 finish at the Travelers Championship where he gained strokes in all four major categories for the first time all year, Seamus Power is trending in the right direction. Already ranking top-five in this field in easy scoring conditions, the Irishman always raises his baseline in low-scoring affairs. In five appearances at TPC Deere Run, Power has already recorded four top-25 finishes, with an eighth and a 13th the last two years. Power's results in birdie-fests should not come as a surprise, as he remains one of the best wedge players in this entire field. Power has already shown his meddle at similar Bent-grass birdie-fests such as TPC Craig Ranch, TPC River Highlands, Keene Trace, and Detroit Golf Club. I expect him to play a factor once again in the Quad Cities.
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GOLF ODDS
Article Author
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from Manhattan, New York. Andy came to OddsChecker in January 2022 after previously writing for Golf Digest, GolfWRX, Rotoballer, and the Score. Andy is also the host of a golf betting and daily fantasy podcast, Inside Golf Podcast, as well as "The Scramble” with Rick Gehman, and a recurring guest on the Pat Mayo Experience. In his free time, Andy is still grinding away at his lifelong dream of qualifying for the U.S. Amateur, and if not writing, can likely be found somewhere on a golf course.