John Deere Classic First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back McNealy, Skinns For a Quick Start

John Deere Classic First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Back McNealy, Skinns For a Quick Start

It is time for another full-field PGA Tour event, as we head to the Twin Cities for the John Deere Classic.

This means we have a big field to choose from as we look to cash a big First Round Leader ticket this week. Whether you are picking favorites like Sungjae Im and Sepp Straka or a rank outsider, we are going to break down the best ways to bet on this market.

You will need to go low here at the John Deere Classic, with a round of 62 or 63 likely required to lead on Thursday, but who has it in them to fire this number?

2024 John Deere Classic First Round Leader Strategy, Trends

Below, we look at the last five renewals of this event to see who led after round 1 of the tournament, the score they had to shoot to do, and what time they teed off. We will also include which tee they started their round on.

• 2023 - Jonas Blixt (6:45 am #1) - 62
• 2022 - JT Poston (7:29 am #10) - 62
• 2021 - Sebastian Munoz (12:54 pm #10) - 63 and Chesson Hadley (1:27 pm #1) - 63
• 2019 - Roberto Diaz (2:00 pm #1) - 62
• 2018 - Steve Wheatcroft (7:10 am #1) - 62

In four of the last five renewals, a player has opened with a round of 62 to lead on day one. The one time a score of 63 led on day one, two players shared the lead, so it is clear a round of 62 is the target for an outright lead.

In 3 of the 5 years, the first round leader has come from the morning wave, with the particularly early starters prospering. We have however seen late starters lead in 2018 and 2021, so you do not need to rule out either wave unless the weather suggests otherwise.

Weather Forecast at the 2024 John Deere Classic

The strongest gusts come in the morning, with 10 am the time when it could actually get a bit dicey, but I can't see there being much of an impact weather-wise throughout the day.

Who in this Field Has Started Fastest on Tour This Season?

Here are the 5 fastest starters in the field based on their Round 1 Scoring Average during the 2024 PGA Tour Season.

• Aaron Rai (8th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 69.06 - Low Opening Round - 65 (Sony Open)
• Zach Johnson (11th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 69.18 - Low Opening Round - 62 (American Express)
• Ben Silverman (13th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 69.31 - Low Opening Round - 66 (Myrtle Beach Classic)
• Troy Merritt (14th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 69.38 - Low Opening Round - 66 (Corales)
• S.H. Kim (15th Overall in 2024 - Scoring Average 69.45 - Low Opening Round - 64 (Cognizant Classic)

What Score is Required to Lead After Round 1 at the John Deere Classic?

We have seen very clearly over the last five years that a 62 has been required for an outright lead, with 63 once being good enough for two players to share the lead on Thursday. 63 will put you in the mix, a 62 is likely needed to guarantee a first round lead.

The Favorites in the 2024 John Deere Classic First Round Leader Market This Week

Here are the favorites in the First Round Leader market at the 2024 John Deere Classic.

• Sungjae Im +3300
• Sepp Straka +3500
• Denny McCarthy +4000
• Jordan Spieth +4000
• Aaron Rai +4500
• Davis Thompson +4500
• Maverick McNealy +4500

2024 John Deere Classic First Round Leader Picks

Here are five picks, all of which are +4500 or bigger, for the John Deere Classic First Round Leader market.

Maverick McNealy +4500 (Caesars)

Maverick McNealy will be popular in the outright market, and while I have my doubts as to whether he can get it done over four rounds, I think he can come out of the blocks the fastest this week.

McNealy ranks 14th in Birdie or Better Percentage and 16th in Round 1 Scoring Average this season, meaning he's perfectly suited to this sort of market - especially at a course where he is 3/3 for made cuts, and has posted rounds of 63, 64, and 65.

He's generally waited until Friday to play his best stuff here in the past, but I like his chances of getting going early here at the John Deere Classic.

McNealy held two first round leads in the Korn Ferry Tour back in 2018 but has failed to hold the first round lead since but he's clearly due. 13 times in his career he has been inside the top 5 after round 1, including twice this year at the Phoenix Open and the PGA Championship. He's also found himself in the mix on day one of the Shriners Open, sitting within two of the lead on two occasions. There has been plenty of crossover with this event and the one in Vegas and I like his chances of finding the first opening-day lead on the PGA Tour here in the Twin Cities. McNealy also had a chance to lead after round 1 of the Valspar Championship, another event that has provided plenty of leaderboard crossover with this one.

A combination of fast starts and a clear ability to birdie or better this season, the first round leader market is the way to play McNealy at the John Deere Classic this week.

McNealy tees off in the afternoon, but that will suit him, given he ranks 4th in Late Round 1 Scoring Average this season.

Jhonattan Vegas +8000 (bet365)

McNealy's record is impressive at the John Deere Class, but another player who has shown an ability to go really low here, is veteran, Jhonattan Vegas.

The three-time winner is heading into the twilight years of his career, and while the latter part of his career has been plagued with injuries, there has been reason for optimism this season.

So far this season, Vegas has finished T22 at the Phoenix Open, T23 at the Corales, and T25 again last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Last week, Vegas had his best ball-striking week since the Phoenix Open, and he could easily spike this week on a friendly golf course.

2 of Vegas' 7 first round leads have come at the Shriners Open and the Valspar Championship, two correlating events, and the latter of the two came in 2022, so it has not been that long since he led after round one.

Here at the John Deere Classic, Vegas has recorded two strong finishes of 3rd and 11th and he has made 5 of 6 cuts in total, so he's comfortable at TPC Deere Run.

When he finished 68th on debut, he shot a second round 64, and he has since posted rounds of 63 and 62, so there is no doubting Vegas' ability to go low around this track.

An opening day 67 saw him end round 1 on the first page of the leaderboard, and I can see him climbing even further this week at a course where he has posted three rounds of 64 or better.

Michael Kim +9000 (FanDuel)

Michael Kim won this event in 2018, and he got off to a quick start, with a Thursday 63. Steve Wheatcroft pipped him with a round of 62, but another round of 63 would certainly put him in the mix, and he's also capable of going one better anyway.

In 2022, Kim held the first round lead three times, twice on the Korn Ferry Tour and once on the PGA Tour, opening with a 65 at the Puerto Rico Open, and rounds of 63 and 61 on the Korn Ferry.

Just last week Kim opened with a round of 65 to sit in 2nd place, one back of Akshay Bhatia's first round lead, and you only have to go back to the World Wide Technology Championship for the last time he was in contention on Thursday again. He opened with a 64 there to sit within two of the lead, and another fast start looks entirely possible.

So far this season Kim ranks 6th in Birdie or Better Percentage, and while he only ranks 40th in Round 1 Scoring Average, he can get off to a quick start here with an early tee time.

David Skinns +10000 (DraftKings)

David Skinns was the last player off my outright betting card this week, but he was the first on my first round leader card. He's got off to quick starts already in 2024, and he's been hitting his irons well in recent weeks, so there is every chance he goes low on Thursday here.

He has a late tee time, but that's no issue for Skinns who ranks 14th in Late Round 1 Scoring Average, so like McNealy, he clearly prefers a lie-in.

Skinns opened with a round of 65 at the Cognizant Classic to sit one stroke back of the lead back in March, and he finished clear of the pack at the Canadian Open recently when he opened with a round of 62. Clearly, the veteran likes a fast start, as evidenced by the 17 times in his career he's been inside the top 5 after round 1, and I think he can add to his tally here.

When Skinns missed the cut here on debut two years ago, he opened with a 77, but he made up for that with a round of 64 on Friday, and the latter is the more likely score this time around.

In Skinns' last four made cuts, he has ranked 21st, 12th, 12th, and 1st in SG Approach, so he is finding form with his irons just at the right time.

Wesley Bryan +17500 (BetMGM)

Now for a stab in the dark.

Wesley Bryan finished 8th on debut here in 2016 and 3rd a year later, showing a clear affinity for this course in the early part of his career. He has failed to hit those heights since, missing three cuts, but in those first two starts here, he shot two rounds of 64 and two 66s, to show an ability to go low here.

Out of the blue, Bryan opened with a round 63 to lead on day one of the Corales, and while he couldn't see out the win there, it was a reminder of what he could do.

He might focus more on YouTube than he does the PGA Tour this season, but even last week he opened with rounds of 68-67 to sit inside the top 10 going into the weekend, so he might just be playing well enough to shoot a low one here at TPC Twin Cities.

His first round lead at the Corales was the third of Bryan's career, and I think he's a good price to add a fourth here.

Bryan is one of the earliest starters on Thursday and that is a big reason why I was drawn to him this week.