New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals Prop Pick: Will MacKenzie Gore Struggle Against Scorching Mets?
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals Prop Pick: Will MacKenzie Gore Struggle Against Scorching Mets?
There is a very small sports slate today with just three MLB games on deck tonight. Even though there are just a few games, there’s still money to be made. For this pick, we are heading to Washington, D.C., where the Mets and Nationals will meet to open a four-game series.
METS VS. NATIONALS DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: July 1, 2024
- Start Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals Prediction
The Mets have recently caught fire, going 16–6 over the last 22 games. The streak has propelled them to third place in the NL East with a record of 40–41. While they are still many games behind the Phillies, the recent form has been very promising. On the other side, the Nationals are coming into this game going 3–7 over their last 10 games and are now 39–44. They are just two games behind the Mets, making this a big series for the NL East foes.
The bet I love in this game is on Washington Nationals starting pitcher Mackenzie Gore. Gore has been pitching pretty well this year, sporting a 3.6 ERA with 99 strikeouts in 85 innings. Although the season is not over, his 3.6 ERA is the lowest of his three-year career so far.
Gore has posted pretty high strikeout numbers this year, and was good in June as well. He had three starts in a row striking out seven or more batters against the Diamondbacks, Marlins, and Braves. He now has three double-digit strikeout appearances this season. However, when you look at the teams he is getting high strikeout numbers against, they are all very high in strikeout rates against left-handed pitching.
In fact, all three starts in June where he recorded 7+ strikeouts were all three teams that were top 10 in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching in June. In May, all three of his appearances where he recorded eight or more strikeouts were also against teams in the top 10 strikeout percentage against left-handed pitching. He hasn’t faced too many lineups this year against teams with low strikeout rates.
Gore actually does have one start against the Mets already this season, where he gave up six earned runs in 4.1 innings while striking out just two batters. Gore has not fared very well against the Mets in his short career so far, as they have posted a .300 batting average against Gore with just a 13% strikeout rate.
Gore has made four appearances against the Mets in his career. In his first appearance, he struck out 10 in six innings, as the Mets were not familiar with him. In the three starts Gore has had against the Mets since then, he has failed to strike out more than three in any of them. Tonight, his strikeout line is set at 5.5 with juice on the over. Looking at his starts this year, it may look like this is an easy over, but looking deeper at the stats against the teams he hit over 5.5 strikeouts against, he should struggle against the Mets tonight, who are in the lowest 10% in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching over the last month. I will be taking plus money on to go under 5.5 strikeouts tonight.
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals Prediction
Pick: Mackenzie Gore Under 5.5 Strikeouts @ +120 CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals System Projections - July 1st
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Article Author
Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.