MLB Picks Today: Targeting Astros vs. Blue Jays, Brewers vs. Rockies on Thursday
MLB Picks Today: Targeting Astros vs. Blue Jays, Brewers vs. Rockies on Thursday
Two games on the 4th of July MLB slate really caught my eye that I want to combine together. I like the early Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays game and the late-night Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies game.
MLB Picks Today
The Astros will take on the Blue Jays today for the final game of their four game series. Framber Valdez will get the nod for the Astros and he will be looking to bounce back after a rough outing against the New York Mets where he surrendered eight hits and three earned runs in just 4.2 innings pitched.
He will have a great opportunity to atone for that outing against a Blue Jays' lineup that ranks 24th in batting average (.228), 21st in wRC+ (93), 23rd in on-base percentage (.296) over the last month when facing off against left-handed pitchers.
On the season, Valdez has held his opponents under this mark in 10 of his 14 starts. When looking at other left-handed starters that have faced the Blue Jays, 13 of the last 16 opposing left-handed starters have allowed six hits or fewer which I expect to be the case again today with Valdez as well.
The player prop I'm targeting currently sits at around -150 on pretty much every book at the time I'm writing this article so to reduce the juice I'm pairing it with the Milwaukee Brewers over 2.5 alternate team total. The Brewers average 4.82 runs per game this season which is the seventh best mark in baseball, playing as the visiting team guarantees them nine plate appearances, and a warm summer night at Coors Field will certainly boost their ability to produce runs.
This combination comes out to -112 odds on DraftKings and can be played on several different books as well including Caesars and Bet365. There is a chance that Framber's hits allowed line shifts to 5.5 and if that happens I recommend playing it solo for around 0.5 units. Good luck and let's cash!
MLB Picks Today
Framber Valdez U6.5 Hits Allowed + Brewers Alt Team Total O2.5 Runs (-112 @ DraftKings)
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