MLB Home Run Parlay Picks: Targeting Royce Lewis, Tommy Pham, and More on Tuesday Night
MLB Home Run Parlay Picks: Targeting Royce Lewis, Tommy Pham, and More on Tuesday Night
We have a loaded slate tonight in the MLB with tons of good ballpark conditions for home runs to capitalize on. I have three players picked out in three different games to hit some dingers for us tonight at a huge payout.
Tuesday June 18th MLB Home Run Parlay Picks
Pick One: Wilmer Flores Home Run
For the first player, we’re going to Wrigley field, where the San Francisco Giants are on the road taking on the Chicago Cubs. The player I’m going with to hit a homer is Wilmer Flores. He is up against left-handed pitcher, Justin Steele, who has given up six home runs in 50 innings. Steele has given up three home runs in 21 innings at Wrigley Field this season, as he has been a much worse pitcher at home than on the road. Steele has given up five of his six runs to right hand batter, which plays into our bet on Wilmer Flores has here.
Flores is 3–6 off Steele in his lifetime with a home run. He is the only batter for the Giants tonight who has hit a home run off Steele before. The weather is prime for long balls in Wrigley Field tonight, as the wind is blowing out to left center, and it will also be a hot night. This game has the highest boost on the slate, which makes it perfect for Flores to cash one for us.
Pick Two: Royce Lewis Home Run
The second player takes us to target field where the Tampa Bay Rays are taking on the Minnesota Twins. The play I’m going with in this game is Royce Lewis to hit a home run. Royce Lewis has already hit seven home runs this year, which doesn’t sound like a lot until you consider that he is only played in 12 games. Lewis has hit a home run in more games this season then he hasn’t hit one. He’s hitting a home run in over 50% of games so far, and that doesn’t sound sustainable, but there’s no way we’re fading a hot hand like him right now.
He is up against Rays pitcher Aaron Civale tonight, who has been giving up home runs at one of the highest rates in baseball this season for starting pitchers. He has given up 14 home runs this season in 72 innings. The weather conditions will also be very conducive to long balls in target field tonight, with the winds blowing out to left center and it also being a very humid night in Minneapolis. Royce Lewis should be able to hit one out of the park tonight.
Pick Three: Tommy Pham Home Run
The last player we are going with has absolutely astronomical odds. The last player in this parlay will be Tommy Pham of the Chicago White Sox. The Houston Astros are playing in Guaranteed Rate Field tonight and are starting Framber Valdez on the mound. Valdez has had an average season so far, but has also given up six home runs in 67 innings. Pham may not seem like the first pick in the Chicago White Sox lineup to hit a home run, that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have home run power. Over his career in 1041 games, he has hit 133 home runs, or an average of one home run in about every seven games. This season, Pham has only hit three home runs in 36 games.
His underlining metrics are still supporting home runs to come in the future for him, as he has a high hard hit rate and exit velocity. Pham also hit a home run off Valdez before in just six at bats. Two of his three home runs this season has come off left-handed pitching in just 33 bats against left-handed pitchers and 110 against right handed pitchers. He should be able to hit off Valdez tonight. His price is extremely high at +750, making this one of the best value home run bets of the day.
Tuesday June 18th MLB Home Run Parlay Picks (+17580) (Bet $10 to collect $17580) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
- Leg 1: Wilmer Flores Home Run +420
- Leg 2: Royce Lewis Home Run +310
- Leg 3: Tommy Pham Home Run +750
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Article Author
Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.