Gael Monfils vs. Andrey Rublev Prediction: Can Monfils Pull off the Upset at US Open Day 4?

Men's US Open - Gael Monfils vs. Andrey Rublev Prediction

The second round of the Men's US Open will feature an exciting match on the grandstand between Gael Monfils and Andrey Rublev. Monfils is 162 in the ATP Tour, while Rublev is No. 8, but we're only seeing Rublev with -215 odds on the moneyline. Monfils, a 36-year-old Frenchman, played a lot better than Rublev during the ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati event in mid-August, with Monfils winning Round of 64 and Round of 32 matches before running into Novak Djokovic in the Round of 16 and losing in two consecutive sets. Meanwhile, Rublev battled in the Round of 32 at Cincinnati but could not outduel Emil Ruusuvuori (No. 60), falling short in two of three sets, all of which required a seventh-game tiebreaker.

Gael Monfils vs. Andrey Rublev Date, Time, And Where To Watch

• Date: August 31, 2023
• Time: 2:15 pm ET
• Where to Watch: ESPN

Gael Monfils vs. Andrey Rublev Prediction

Monfils has more experience and height than Rublev, who is a 25-year-old Russian who deploys a right-handed forehand and two-handed backhand swing. Monfils uses the same style, but his ranking in the ATP Tour has fluctuated dramatically in the past year in comparison to Rublev. The Frenchman was 24 in ATP Tour rankings a year ago, before sliding all the way down to 394 in May. Since hitting that rank, Monfils has improved, recently climbing into 162 based on quality play in June, July, and August.

Rublev holds the edge in break points saved percentage, while both players are even in terms of break points converted as a returner. Rublev also has nearly 4x the number of aces recorded in 2023, winning 84 percent of his service games, compared to Monfils, who has won 78 percent of his service games. However, both also rank evenly at a 25 percent return games won rate, so they are a bit closer in talent than current rankings reflect.

Rublev is in a cold slump, losing three consecutive matches entering Friday's match against Monfils. He battled and was close to advancing in Cincinnati a couple of weeks ago, but previous losses were lopsided against No. 61 and No. 59 ranked players, which didn't require any sets to go to a seventh game for the tiebreaker. Conversely, Monfils is 5-2 entering Friday's match against Rublev, having defeated quality players like Stefanos Tsitsipas (No. 4), Chris Eubanks (No. 29), and Alex de Minaur (No. 12) since the beginning of the month.

Oddsmakers have this line calculated poorly, so let's take advantage and bet on Monfils to win outright, taking his plus odds on the moneyline at +180 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Gael Monfils vs. Andrey Rublev Pick

• Pick: Gael Monfils Moneyline @ +180 (Click here to get the best odds for this match)