NHL Parlay Picks for Thursday: Building Around Sabres vs. Stars, Capitals vs. Devils
NHL Parlay Picks for Thursday: Building Around Sabres vs. Stars, Capitals vs. Devils
After a Wednesday that saw just three NHL games take place, Thursday's slate will bounce back with 11 games on the schedule. Many of these games hold significant playoff implications, including the two I'm breaking down for this bet.
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NHL Parlay for Thursday
Leg one: Dallas Stars ML
The Dallas Stars, winners of three of their last four games, will travel to Buffalo to face the Sabres on Thursday night. This is a game between two teams that, frankly, aren't in the same class. For instance, at even strength this season, Dallas has the ninth-best expected goals share in the NHL at 52.84%; Buffalo trails in 23rd.
The Stars are likely to win the special teams battle. While the Sabres have a stellar power play, the Stars have an equally good penalty kill, one that ranks sixth In the league with a kill rate of 83.1%. On the other side, though, Dallas has a major edge — their eighth-ranked power play will face the league's second-worst penalty kill (72.9% kill rate).
Form is always an important consideration when handicapping an NHL game, and Dallas is in excellent form. They have generated more expected goals than their opponent in six of their last seven games, a testament to their strong play of late. By contrast, Buffalo has been out-chanced in terms of xG in six of their last nine games.
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The Stars should have the better goaltender in this matchup, possibly by a significant margin. Per EvolvingHockey, out of all NHL starters, Jake Oettinger has saved the sixth-most goals above expected with 21.09. He also has a save percentage of .921, which ranks fourth. The Sabres have gotten solid play out of veteran Craig Anderson, in fairness, but Anderson is not in Oettinger's tier.
Overall, Dallas should be favored by more than they are in this spot. I price this game around Stars -180, meaning that, if I'm right, this is a great leg to add to the parlay.
Leg two: New Jersey Devils ML
The Washington Capitals will host the Devils on Thursday night in a game that holds meaning for both squads. The Capitals are five points out of the final wildcard spot in the Eastern Conference — every game will be vital for them from here on out. As for the Devils, they are looking to chase down the Hurricanes, whom they trail by four points, for the top spot in the Metropolitan Division.
The Devils have been squarely among the NHL's best teams for most of the season. Their 5v5 expected goals share of 55.58% ranks second in the NHL, and their points percentage of .698 ranks third (trailing only the Bruins and Hurricanes). The Capitals come nowhere close to matching this mark — Washington's 5v5 xG share ranks 19th.
When I take a look at form, these teams seem to be headed in opposite directions. The Devils and Jack Hughes have out-generated their opponents, in terms of expected goals, in seven straight games. The Capitals, meanwhile, have been out-generated in three of their last four, despite playing the Ducks, Sharks, and Sabres during the span. This does not bode well for Washington's chances on Thursday, set to face a team that has laid waste to much of the league this season.
This is another example of a game where the favorite deserves to be favored a bit more than they are. The Devils should be -170 here, giving them enough value on the moneyline to confidently throw into the parlay.
NHL Parlay for Thursday (+178) Bet $100 to collect $278. FanDuel has the best odds, click here
- Leg 1: Dallas ML
- Leg 2: New Jersey ML
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