Edmonton Oilers vs. Dallas Stars Player Prop Pick: Will Stuart Skinner Shut Down Stars in Crucial Game 5?
Edmonton Oilers vs. Dallas Stars Player Prop Pick: Will Stuart Skinner Shut Down Stars in Crucial Game 5?
The Stanley Cup Playoffs continue tonight as Edmonton and Dallas head back to the American Airlines Center in Texas for Game 5 of their series. The Oilers were able to take Game 4 to even up the series on their home ice and will now have a tall task ahead of them tonight to beat the Stars on the road.
After an overtime win in game one and the Oilers shocking the Stars on their home ice, the Stars took a commanding 2-1 lead in the series while winning both games by multiple goals. The Stars jumped out to an early 2–0 leading Game 4 before the Oilers tied up and eventually scored five goals in a row, shutting out the Stars for the remainder of the game. What should we expect in Game 5 tonight from Dallas?
Oilers vs. Stars Game 5 DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: May 31, 2024
- Start Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: TNT
Edmonton Oilers vs. Dallas Stars Game 5 Prediction
The player I am looking at in this game is Edmonton goalie Stuart Skinner. Skinner has had an up-and-down postseason, having stretches where he has looked terrific and then completely unfolding in some games. During the regular season, Skinner was 14th in the NHL with a 2.62 goals allowed average and 25th in the NHL with a 90.5% save rate. The Oilers' defense was behind him, though, as he was tied with the third-best record for a goalie in the NHL with a 36–16–5 record. In the postseason, Skinner's save percentage has dropped quite a bit to 88.7%. However, he’s still just allowing 2.7 goals per game as the Oilers' defense has been doing well in front of him. That is what I expect to continue tonight in this series. Skinner was pulled for Games 4 and 5 of the Canucks series and ever since then, the Oilers have made it an absolute brick wall in front of Skinner. In Games 6 and 7 of the Canucks series, Skinner faced just 15 and 17 shots on goal, respectively. Aside from game one of the series, Skinner has not faced more than 24 shots on net since Game 4 of the first round against the Kings on April 28. The Oilers' blue line being so suffocating is what has helped Edmonton get this far in the playoffs, as everyone knows Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid are a dangerous duo, but you need a defense to win championships. Skinner may not be the best goalie in the playoffs, but the Oilers don’t really have any other options, and the defense knows they have to buckle down to help him and keep shots on goal at a minimum. That is why I'm taking the under on his saves. Skinner is set at 24.5 saves tonight. This is a line that he is passed and just one of his last ten games. Skinner has not been in a position to face many shots for most of the postseason, mostly due to the way the Edmonton defense is playing, and I expect that to continue tonight. Over the last three games of this series, the most shots on goal Skinner has seen is 24. The Oilers are averaging 24.7 shots on goal allowed per game in the postseason, which is right where his saves line is.
At a save rate of 88.7% in the playoffs, this would put Skinner at 22 saves tonight. That is roughly where he’s been over the last few games of this series, and there’s no reason to think that anything should change in this game tonight. Skinner had 31 saves in Game 1, but that was with 80 minutes of ice time after the game went to double overtime. I think we see another low-shot effort from the Stars as the Oilers' defense continues to keep Skinner out of harm's way, knowing he could break at any moment.
Edmonton Oilers vs. Dallas Stars Game 5 Player Prop Pick
Pick: Stuart Skinner Under 24.5 Saves -110 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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Article Author
Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.