Valero Texas Open Prop Bets, Picks: Can Kevin Chappell, Chandler Phillips Shine in Texas?

Valero Texas Open Prop Bets, Picks: Can Kevin Chappell, Chandler Phillips Shine in Texas?

It was a slightly profitable week for us at the WGC Matchplay, with Jason Day coming out on top of his group at +210. Unfortunately, Tyrrell Hatton was battling a hand injury that he picked up on the range before facing Ben Griffin. He managed to play through the pain, although it clearly affected his game, and he didn't look comfortable throughout the event. Tom Hoge looked like a decent long shot on paper; however, he failed to show up last week and lost every game in his group.

The WGC Matchplay is always a good watch and rarely disappoints for drama. Everyone was licking their lips in anticipation of a Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler final last week, only for Sam Burns and Cameron Young to steal the show. Sam Burns was seriously impressive and fully deserved his win. It's an event that will be sorely missed from the PGA Tour calendar, though from a betting standpoint, I won't be too upset to see the back of it.

Click here for $5000 worth of sports betting bonuses to use on the Valero Texas Open

Excitement is building as we are just one week away from the Masters, but before then, we head to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open. It's an event that gives players that haven't already qualified a final chance to punch their ticket to the Masters. It also acts as an opportunity for players already qualified to tune up their game before the big event. However, many of those players have chosen to prepare elsewhere, with only eight of the top 50 in the world choosing to tee it up this week. It's a relatively weak field, yet there are some interesting additions that will be raring to take their opportunity.

Below, I've identified three players to take in the top 40 market.

Valero Texas Open Start Time, Where to Watch, and Watch

• Date - Thursday, March 30 - Sunday, April 2
• Opening Tee Times - 8:30 a.m. ET - 2 p.m. ET
• Where - TPC San Antonio Oaks Course, San Antonio, Texas
• Where to Watch - ESPN+, Golf Channel, NBC

Click here for Valero Texas Open odds

2023 Valero Texas Open Prop Picks

Kevin Chappell Top 40 (+225) Bet $100 to collect $325 BetRivers has the best odds; click here to bet

Kevin Chappell has had his injury troubles over the years, which has caused him to fall heavily down the world rankings. Although he has been impressive in recent weeks and at 36 years old, still has plenty of time on his side to make a comeback. I chanced on Kevin last week at the Corales Championship, and he's far too appealing to ignore him for this event. Immediately what stands out is his course form. Kevin won his one and only PGA title at TPC San Antonio back in 2017.

On top of that, he has a runner-up and a fourth-place finish. He's also finished inside the top 20 a couple of times, only missing the cut three times from 10 starts. He's a typical course horse. We see quite a few players who typically show up here, with Charley Hoffman being the standout. If you couple that with his recent form, which reads 29th at the Honda, 15th at the Puerto Rico Open, and 16th at the Corales, in his last three starts, he looks in great shape for this week.

The stats that we receive from the Corales Championship are limited. Still, he ranked 12th in Driving Distance, 21st in Driving Accuracy, and 27th in GIR, which is solid. In his last three events, he got off to a slow start and progressively got better as the week went on. I will be betting on him outright and in the top 20 market; however, as the other two selections are a bit more adventurous, I believe the safest way to play him will be to finish inside the top 40 at +225.

Satoshi Kodaira Top 40 (+430) Bet $100 to collect $530 FanDuel has the best odds; click here to bet

Satoshi Kodaira has found PGA Tour starts hard to come by this year. The 2018 RBC Heritage winner was on the alternate list for this event; with the Japanese men's tour starting up again this week, he took a gamble that he could get in. It's a gamble that has paid off. With Robert Streb withdrawing on Tuesday, he now finds himself in the field. After winning the RBC Heritage, Satoshi got to as high as 27th in the world rankings. He has slipped down the rankings in recent years, although he has been presented with an opportunity this week, and it's certainly one he'll be looking to take advantage of.

Satoshi competed at TPC Antonio once before, back in 2021, but he comfortably missed the cut. It's worth noting he was in poor form at the time, and his status on the PGA Tour was a lot clearer. He's made four out of seven cuts in Texas, with his best finish, T13th, coming at the Byron Nelson Championship. Satoshi's best performance on the PGA Tour last year came at the Sony Open, where he finished T12th. Looking at past leaderboards, we regularly see players show up at both Waialae Country Club and TPC San Antonio. Jimmy Walker is the best example as he has won on both courses; previous Texas Open winners Conners and Spaun also have strong form at the Sony Open.

We last saw Satoshi at the Honda Classic; he opened with a round of 75 and left himself a lot of work to do in round 2. He shot a round of 68 to miss the cut by two shots. Prior to that, he made two consecutive cuts, finishing T54th at Torrey Pines and T29th at Pebble Beach. Although it was quite a while ago now, I have to highlight how well Satoshi hit the ball that week. He ranked fourth in strokes, gained tee to green, and second in approach.

He also gained 2.839 strokes tee to green at the Honda Classic, despite missing the cut. It's the short game that's letting him down, but overall, there are a lot of positives there. Potentially there might be a little bit of competitive rust, but I'm counting on him to overcome that this week, given that it's another fantastic opportunity for him.

Chandler Phillips Top 40 (+650) Bet $100 to collect $750 FanDuel has the best odds; click here to bet

I've written about Sam Stevens in recent weeks as someone that crept on my radar, thanks to the All-Pro Golf tour in the United States. The same goes for Chandler Phillips. They both regularly battled it out and were always up the top of the leaderboards. Since then, I've been following his progress; as Sam Stevens qualified for the Korn Ferry Tour in 2022, Phillips narrowly missed out. He opted to keep playing on the All-Pro Tour, although remarkably didn't win all year, despite finishing inside the top-five seven times in 13 events.

Chandler made no mistake at the Korn Ferry Tour Q School finals the second time around. He finished T10th to lock up his card for the upcoming season. Chandler got off to the perfect start, winning the Great Exuma Classic in the Bahamas by two shots in January. He followed that up with a T12th finish in his second event. Since then, he has missed three consecutive cuts yet still remains third in the Korn Ferry Tour season points. That win alone has given him an excellent chance of making the top 25 come the end of the year to secure his PGA Tour playing rights. He has been presented with an opportunity to fast-track that this week at the Texas Open.

It'll be a tough ask to win, but a top finish could secure temporary membership or more sponsored exemptions. Similar to what we've seen with Ryan Gerard in recent weeks. Chandler grew up in Houston and was a star at Texas A&M, improving each year he was there. He regularly competed against Scottie Scheffler in his early years; when Scottie heard the news of him winning in the Bahamas, he quoted, "I’ve known him for a long time. He’s super talented. I’m sure you’ll see his name pop up (on the PGA TOUR) pretty soon.”

Chandler hasn't made an appearance on the PGA Tour since 2020. He has made four appearances in total at this level, making the cut just once at the Houston Open back in 2019. It seems he likes playing close to home, as his best finish on the Korn Ferry Tour prior to this year was a T5th finish at the Veritex Bank Championship back in 2021. It's an exciting opportunity for Chandler, and given his recent win, he'll be full of confidence that he can make a mark this week in his state open.