The Valspar Championship Prop Bets, Picks: Riding With Ryan Gerard

The Valspar Championship Prop Bets, Picks: Riding With Ryan Gerard

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2023 Valspar Championship Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

• Dates: March 16-19, 2023
• Where: Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club (Palm Harbor, Florida)
• Where to Watch: ESPN+, NBC, Golf Channel

Click here for PGA odds

The Valspar Championship Prediction

It was a case of close but no cigar at TPC Sawgrass last week. Hickok got off to a slow start but fired rounds of 70 and 69 to sit comfortably inside the top 40 going into the final round. Unfortunately for us, he didn't bring his best stuff on Sunday and closed with a round of 73 to finish T44th, a shot off returning. What makes matters worse is that he bogeyed the last. Ben Martin got through the cutline but couldn't shoot low enough for us over the weekend. He finished three shots shy of the top 40 in T54th. After showing some promising signs in previous weeks, Webb Simpson was extremely disappointing. He shot back-to-back rounds of 76 to miss the cut comfortably.

The 'Florida Swing' concludes this week at the Valspar Championship. Copperhead is another tricky, wind-affected Florida track that always provides a tough test for the players. It looks as though the weather will play its part, with the wind at its strongest in the morning on Thursday and in the afternoon on Friday. That will likely result in a wave advantage for players that have a PM/AM tee time. It doesn't look too severe, but it's definitely worth noting. This event doesn't have elevated status, so we're missing a lot of the top players. Still, with Monday qualifiers, sponsor exemptions, and Korn Ferry Tour graduates all returning, there is value to be had further down the board.

Below, I've identified three players to take in the top 40 market.

The Valspar Championship Prop Bets

Ryan Gerard Top 40 (+175) Bet $100 to collect $275. FanDuel has the best odds, click here

I'm captivated by Ryan Gerard's journey to the PGA Tour. The former top 100 amateur has burst onto the scene this year, not only on the Korn Ferry Tour but also on the biggest stage. He's already got a win under his belt, albeit on the Canadian tour when he won the Quebec Open not long after turning professional.

Ryan qualified for the Korn Ferry Tour this year. Despite a slow start to his season, he finished T3rd in Columbia and carried over that form into the Honda Classic Monday qualifying event. He qualified for the Honda Classic and made the most of his opportunity, surprising everyone by finishing fourth. This got him into the Puerto Rico Open, where he needed to finish in a three-way tie for ninth or better to secure special temporary membership on the PGA Tour. He, unfortunately, came up short, placing T11th.

Thankfully, Ryan has been given a sponsor exemption into the Valspar Championship this week, which gives him another fantastic opportunity to secure temporary membership. Ryan needs no worse than a 2-way T54th finish, but he won't be playing for that. He's on a heater at the moment and hitting the ball superbly. Going off the interviews I've seen, he looks full of confidence and relaxed, and he feels as though this is where he belongs. Ryan will be seriously motivated to play well this week, but with an early tee time on Thursday, it looks like Ryan will have to battle the elements to get through that cut line. Taking that into account, I believe a top 40 bet is probably best suited.

Austin Smotherman Top 40 (+300) Bet $100 to collect $400. FanDuel has the best odds, click here

It's Austin Smotherman's second season on the PGA Tour, and so far, it's been a tough ride for the Californian. Before last week's Players Championship, Austin was on a run of four consecutive missed cuts. He only narrowly made the weekend but improved with rounds of 69 and 70 to finish T35th. Taking into account his poor recent form, and that being his debut at TPC Sawgrass, I believe Austin will be delighted with that result. He hit the ball superbly tee to green, only losing strokes with the putter. It's got to do wonders for his confidence, and he now returns to a course where he showed some promising signs last year.

Austin finished T25th on his first start at Copperhead; firing rounds of 67 and 68 suggests the course suits. Interestingly, over ten starts in Florida across the PGA and Korn Ferry Tour, Austin has missed only two cuts and has finished inside the top 40 every time he makes the weekend. Similar to Gerard, it looks as though he might be on the wrong side of the draw, but that's not enough to put me off him. I foresee him building on that solid performance at TPC Sawgrass. He looks like brilliant value in the top 40 market.

Nick Gabrelcik Top 40 (+360) Bet $100 to collect $460. FanDuel has the best odds, click here

We had some success with talented amateur Ludvig Aberg at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. I'm taking a similar approach this week with Nick Gabrelcik. He's in the field this week thanks to a sponsor exemption, and it will be his first start on the PGA Tour. Nick is currently ranked the 12th-best amateur in the world and has already won six times at that level. He lives locally to Innisbrook resort and goes to the University of North Florida.

According to his 'amateurgolf' profile, his home course is Fox Hollow Golf Club, which is just 21 minutes away. It also states on there his favorite course is Copperhead. If he were going to make his PGA Tour debut anywhere, this would be his choice. It's likely to be a course he knows well and feels comfortable on. The downside is that this is a completely new experience, and the occasion might be too much for him. Nick goes out late on Thursday, so he should see the best of the weather over the first couple of rounds. Given his impressive record as an amateur and his local ties to the course, I must take a chance on him this week in the top 40 market.