Valspar Championship Expert Picks: Our Experts' Longshot Picks
Valspar Championship Expert Picks: Our Experts' Longshot Picks
Last week at The Players Championship, Scottie Scheffler dominated and came away with the win at TPC Sawgrass. Scheffler was the third favorite to win (+1100), so there wasn't an opportunity to hit a longshot, but we're back this week with Valspar Championship longshot picks.
There are some big names at the top of the Valspar Championship odds board like Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas and Matt Fitzpatrick. But, there are also a few stars missing from the field, meaning there is a good chance we get a longshot winner this week.
Geoff Fienberg, Rick Gehman, Bradley Todd, Brian Kirschner, Sam Eaton and Tom Jacobs give us a breakdown of their favorite pick with odds longer than +3500.
Looking for a lottery-ticket Valspar pick that can turn into a massive profit? You've come to the right place. Let's take a look at our experts' Valspar Championship longshot picks.
Valspar Championship Longshot Picks
Geoff Fienberg: Victor Perez (+6600) (Bet $100 to collect $6,700)
I'm chasing what I believe is an undervalued European Tour golfer who has won at every level he's participated in and, I believe, is only getting better. Perez is an outstanding driver of the golf ball and while that won't be as big a factor this week it should set him up with plenty of opportunities on this difficult track. The irons are hit-and-miss but he's shown an ability to spike. A tough, narrow, penal track is far more common on the Euro Tour than the PGA, so Victor should be comfortable with this layout. The confidence of a win in Abu Dhabi to start the year with one of the stronger world tour fields could have him poised for a PGA breakthrough.
-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)
Rick Gehman: Dylan Wu (+20000) (Bet $100 to collect $20,100)
It's hard to say that Wu is being "very disrespected" at 200-1, but he should have opened at 80-1. He's been one of the best ball-strikers in the field recently, gaining 15.61 strokes to the field over his last four events in those categories. He popped at the Honda Classic, finishing 10th, and held his own at THE PLAYERS Championship to a T35 finish. He should be able to lean into those ball-striking assets to separate himself from a much weaker field this week.
-- Rick Gehman (@RickRunGood)
Brian Kirschner: Ben Taylor (+15000) (Bet $100 to collect $15,100)
It is not very often that you can get a golfer with three top-5 finishes this year at this good of odds but we have found that this week with Ben Taylor.
Ben Taylor started his first season on the PGA Tour with a 3rd place finish at the Houston Open and since 2023 has had some really impressive results. Taylor finished 4th at the Sony Open and recently finish 5th at the Honda Classic.
Ben ranks third in this field in SG: putting (Bermuda), 19th in total strokes gained, and third in SG: short game over the past 50 rounds in this field. I think that the odds board is overlooking a golfer that has shown he can contend on the PGA Tour in his first season.
-- Brian Kirschner (@BrianKirschner_)
Sam Eaton: Nate Lashley (+8000) (Bet $100 to collect $8,100)
Finding the fairway and nailing long irons is the order of play at the Valspar Championship. Nate Lashley's game has been trending in the right direction of late and has had a few stand-out finishes, including 3rd in Puerto Rico, 20th at the Genesis, and 7th at the Sony Open. He ranks 30th in terms of fairways gained in this field over the last three months, and 3rd Prox 175-200. In terms of overall, Lashley comes in 3rd in my model for the week. That's well worth chancing after a decent showing in this competition last year.
-- Sam Eaton (@SamEaton12)
Bradley Todd: Ryan Gerard (+13000) (Bet $100 to collect $13,100)
Former top 100 amateur Ryan Gerard has burst onto the scene this year not only on the Korn Ferry Tour but also on the top stage. He won the Quebec Open on the Canadian Tour not long after turning professional. After grabbing his first top-5 finish on the Korn Ferry Tour he Monday qualified for the Honda Classic and finished 4th. This then got him into the Puerto Rico Open where he needed to finish in a three-way tie for ninth, or better, to secure special temporary membership on the PGA Tour. Unfortunately, he finished just short in T11th. Thankfully, Ryan has been given a sponsor exemption into the Valspar Championship this week which gives him another opportunity. I believe a top-50 finish will be enough but he won't be playing for that. He's absolutely flying at the moment and hitting the ball superbly. Going off the interviews I've seen, he feels as though this is where he belongs and looks pretty relaxed in this environment.
-- Bradley Todd (@Bradley_Todd)
Tom Jacobs: David Lingmerth (+12500) (Bet $100 to collect $12,600)
Lingmerth is back to playing really good golf again on the PGA Tour, and at his peak we know he's a player more than capable of winning an event like this.
The Swede finished 6th last week at the Players in a far deeper field, and he was 10th at the Honda Classic two weeks before, in a field similar to this one.
He has now posted five top-11 finishes on the season and as he stays in Florida, his adopted home state, he is still worth chancing at triple digits, until his form falls away.
Despite not finishing higher than 27th here, Lingmerth has hit the ball around here in the past, and if he can find a putting stroke, he is very live to make a run at this title, even as a 125-1 shot!
-- Tom Jacobs (@TomJacobs93)
Article Authors
Brian Kirschner is the host of the Tap in Birdie Podcast and is a golf betting content creator from Long Island. Every week Brian has prominent guests in the industry come on his podcast and break down the upcoming PGA Tour event from a betting/DFS perspective. Brian loves nothing more than sweating first round leader and outrights bets.
Bradley Todd is best known for his knowledge of golf on a global scale. He shares his bets across all the tours on his Patreon and has turned a profit of 700+ points for the last three years. He can also be found weekly on the Lost Fore Words podcast contributing his thoughts of the upcoming PGA/DPWT events.
Tom Jacobs is the host of the Lost Fore Words golf podcast and has been writing betting articles on golf for the past decade. Tom also co-hosts the DP World Tour Picks & Bets show on the Mayo Media Network, so has his finger on the pulse on all the major Tours. A long-suffering Nottingham Forest fan, Tom also enjoys watching Soccer at the weekend, and was delighted to see his Forest team win promotion this season!