The Players Championship Prop Bets, Picks: Target Webb Simpson, Kramer Hickok, Ben Martin at TPC Sawgrass
The Players Championship Prop Bets, Picks: Target Webb Simpson, Kramer Hickok, Ben Martin at TPC Sawgrass
We had some success at Bay Hill last week with both top 40 selections landing at +250 & +330. I should've shown a bit more faith in Davis Riley, who closed with a superb round of 66 to finish inside the top 10. Ludvig Aberg showed exactly why he is so sought after as a player. He showed his maturity all week and looked more than comfortable playing amongst the best players in the world. I'm excited to see him progress over the next few years.
We stay in Florida once again this week for the PGA Tour's flagship event, The Players Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a visually intimadating course, which always offers up a stern test. It definitely pays to have some experience here, as it's a tricky course that can easily catch a player out. It's going to test the player's patience, creativity and it will simply reward the players who are hitting it the best.
Below, I've identified three players that look great value in the placement markets.
Players Championship Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
- Date: March 9-12
- Start Time: 8 am ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN+, NBC, Golf Channel
Click here for the latest 2023 Players Championship odds
The Players Championship Prediction
Webb Simpson Top 30 +250 (Bet $100 to collect $350) Get the best odds, available at Fanduel
Webb Simpson has been nowhere near his best for quite a while now. At the beginning of last year, he struggled with a bulging disk in his neck, which kept him out of action for a few months.
This of course disrupted his season and the seven-time PGA Tour winner failed to recapture any notable form. Webb has had a slow start to the year but he's made his last three cuts and looks to be hitting the ball a lot better. Last time out at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, he closed with a round of 66 to finish T24th. Webb struggled off the tee all week but did improve by the final round, his irons in particular were brilliant ranking 6th on approach.
A big performance might be on the horizon and if it was going to come anywhere, it would be at a course such as TPC Sawgrass where he's a previous winner. It's a great fit for Webb; what he lacks in distance he can make up for elsewhere. If you look at his last three results, it's always been one round that has let him down. At the Phoenix Open, he was sitting 28th going into the final round, shooting 74 to finish T57th. At the Honda Classic he was 31st going into the final round, shot 77 to finish T74th.
Last week at Bay Hill, he was 41st after getting through the cutline then shot 76 and 66 to finish T24th. That performance and the way he responded in that final round, might just be a sign that he's edging closer to putting it all together. Webb Simpson has got to be changed this week and I've backed him in both the outright and top 30 market.
Kramer Hickok Top 40 +330 (Bet $100 to collect $430) Get the best odds, available at DraftKings
Kramer Hickok's recent form has attracted my attention. After eight consecutive missed cuts, Kramer found something at the Genesis Invitational. He hit the ball superbly from tee to green on his way to a T29th finish.
Given his recent form and the event's elevated status, that was a fantastic result. Kramer built on that performance, with a T14th place finish at the Honda Classic last time out. He continued to hit the ball exceptionally well, ranking 28th off the tee, 12th in driving accuracy, 14th on approach and 28th around the greens; only slightly losing strokes on the greens.
He now arrivives at TPC Sawgrass with momentum and in excellent form. He's played here twice before and made the cut each time with finishes of 58th and 42nd. There have been some promising signs from them two appearance with rounds of 67 and 68, showing what's capable of achieving around this course. He's shown up in decent fields in the past and came close to his first PGA title at the Travelers Championship in 2021, where he narrowly missed out in a playoff. TPC River Highlands bares some resemblance to TPC Sawgrass, so to see him come close there certainly catches the eye.
Ben Martin Top 40 +350 (Bet $100 to collect $450) Get the best odds, available at Fanduel
Ben Martin's argument is not too dissimilar to Kramer Hickok's. He arrives at TPC Sawgrass off the back of two brilliant results. He finished 13th at Pebble Beach, where he gained strokes in every department bar putting. He built on that performance at the Honda Classic and continued to hit the ball well, gaining strokes across the board. It looks as though a change in putting surface might've been all that he needed, as he gained over six strokes putting on his way to a fifth-place finish. Ben is on similar greens this week and comes into this event with momentum.
He's got some eye-catching course form at TPC Sawgrass; he finished fourth on his debut back in 2015, clearly taking a liking to the course. Since then he has two missed cuts and a T30th finish. After a slow start to the season, Ben will be full of confidence after his last two starts and fits the profile of the player I'm targeting for this test. I love his chances of finishing inside the top 40 this week.
The Players Championship Picks
- Ben Martin Top 40 +350 (Bet $100 to collect $450) Get the best odds, available at Fanduel
- Kramer Hickok Top 40 +330 (Bet $100 to collect $430) Get the best odds, available at DraftKings
- Webb Simpson Top 30 +250 (Bet $100 to collect $350) Get the best odds, available at Fanduel
Article Author
Bradley Todd is best known for his knowledge of golf on a global scale. He shares his bets across all the tours on his Patreon and has turned a profit of 700+ points for the last three years. He can also be found weekly on the Lost Fore Words podcast contributing his thoughts of the upcoming PGA/DPWT events.