Arnold Palmer Invitational Expert Picks: Our Experts' Longshot Picks

Arnold Palmer Invitational Expert Picks: Our Experts' Longshot Picks

We've been spoiled with good golf of late and this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational is no different as the API boasts a field that looks like a major. That means we're going to get great golf this week, but it also means that we're going to have a lot of big names with big prices.

This week, Geoff Fienberg, Rick Gehman, Brian Kirschner, Bradley Todd, Stuart Durst, Sam Eaton and Tom Jacobs all get together to give us their favorite Arnold Palmer Invitational longshot picks.

So, who should you be backing when you make your picks for this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational? Find out here as our team of golf handicappers give you their best bet at odds of +3500 or longer.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Longshot Picks

Geoff Fienberg: Sam Burns (+5000) (Bet $100 to collect $5,100)

The current landscape of golf betting has now forced me to take liberties with the term longshot. Plus, no one wants to read me telling them this could be the week for Tommy Fleetwood. So for me, it's Sam Burns, back in the state of Florida. We're now in his wheelhouse, where in just a few short years on Tour he's earned the nickname Bermuda Burns, due to his ability to thrive on this surface.

This number is simply too high for a natural-born winner, on a comfortable course fit with the ability to flash at any moment, and we'll need that flash from his irons this week. But history shows us Burns can spike at any moment and I would absolutely trust him if he ended up in a spot against the current kings of the golf world on Sunday. Outright golf betting can be cruel but a missed cut is worth the same as a guy finishing in 3rd place, which makes Burns the ideal play. Top talent, long odds, and a history of spike performances popping up at any time.

-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)

Sam Eaton: Tom Kim (+5500) (Bet $100 to collect $5,600)

I originally had a hit list of two players for the longshot, which were Gary Woodland and Tom Hoge, both of whom look great value. However, Gary Woodland's super cold putting concerned me, and Tom Hoge was knocked out when I realized I could bet Tom Kim at +5500.

The Tom Kim honeymoon period seems to be over, with many jumping ship and not talking about the South Korean stud. However, at +5500 I'm willing to ride the train. Long irons are one of the keys to success here and Kim ranks 2nd in terms of Prox 200+ in the last three months in this field. His game has faltered a little of late, but he still remains a top-30 player in this field when it comes to shots gained approach and GIR.

-- Sam Eaton (@SamEaton12)

Tom Jacobs: Rickie Fowler +7000 (Bet $100 to collect $7,100)

Rickie Fowler is right on the comeback trail, and a win doesn't feel too far away, given the sharp improvements he's made since returning to his old coach, Butch Harmon.

Fowler has ranked inside the top-9 for SG Approach in each of his past four events, and his SG Tee to Green numbers are trending in the right direction as well.

Last time out, he was 20th at Riviera, a course he has struggled at in the past, and that finish tied for the best performance he has put in at that event

.Now he returns to Bay Hill where he has a 3rd place finish, and where he was 5th going into the final round on his second start here in 2011. More recently he has been 12th, 14th and 18th here, and now he's back to something close to his best, it is time for him to turn solid efforts into winning one this week.

He's a two-time winner in Florida at the Honda Classic and the PLAYERS Championship, and he can complete the trifecta this weekend with a win at Bay Hill.

If the wind is as bad as forecast on Friday, Fowler can excel in those conditions, as he has done in the Open Championship in the past.

-- Tom Jacobs (@TomJacobs93)

Rick Gehman: Keegan Bradley (+8000) (Bet $100 to collect $8,100)

Bradley is currently in the midst of the best season of his career, but I'm not sure how many people are noticing. He missed the cut at the Genesis Invitational but had earned five top-25 finishes in his seven starts prior to that week. That stretch included a win at the ZOZO Championship and now he returns to Bay Hill where he's made the cut in ten straight trips and has earned four Top-12 finishes during that run.

-- Rick Gehman (@RickRunGood)

Brian Kirschner: Sam Burns (+5000) (Bet $100 to collect $5,100)

I am more than willing to back Sam Burns at +5000 in this field. The four-time PGA Tour winner has drifted too far in the odds board for me to pass up. Sam Burns, who is already a 2-time winner in Florida, has shown some success at this course which is proven to be a great indicator of performance. Burns was able to finish T9 last year at API, gaining 3.7 strokes on approach and a staggering six strokes on the greens. Last year was also not the first time he spiked with the putter on these Bermuda grass greens. Burns was able to gain 4.6 strokes and 7.2 strokes, putting at the 2019 and 2020 editions of the API. I am more than willing to overlook his missed cut at the Genesis in his last start. Before that, Burns had a great showing at the WMPO, finishing in 6th place and gaining strokes in all major categories. Prior to that, an 11th-place finish at the American Express shows that Sam's current form has not fallen off as far as the odds reflect. Sam has garnered the nickname “Bermuda Burns,” and there is certainly data to back up this name. Over the past 50 rounds, Sam Burns ranks first in SG: Putting on Bermuda. We have also seen Sam Burns win in difficult conditions, as he was a winner less than a year ago at the Charles Schwab at -9. I am confident we will see a great showing from Sam Burns in the sunshine state this week.

-- Brian Kirschner (@BrianKirschner_)

Bradley Todd: Tommy Fleetwood (+8000) (Bet $100 to collect $8,100)

Tommy Fleetwood missed the cut at the Phoenix Open but bounced back with a solid 20th-place finish at Riviera. He was steady tee to green, only losing strokes slightly off the tee. I think that performance sets him up nicely going into one of his favorite events on the PGA Tour calendar.

Fleetwood has played at Bay Hill six times, missing the cut just once. His best finish of 3rd came in 2019, where he led at the halfway point. He's been in contention twice at Bay Hill, and looking at his past interviews it's clearly a course he enjoys and feels comfortable playing on.

He also has a close friend that lives on the course which gives him some familiar surroundings. If Tommy is going to break through anywhere on the PGA Tour and get that monkey off his back, I'm confident it will be Bay Hill. He loves a tough test, and if the wind is up, we know he can handle it. Promising signs from his last start; excited to chance him at +8000.

-- Bradley Todd (@Bradley_Todd)

Stuart Durst: Sahith Theegala (+8000) (Bet $100 to collect $8,100)

This is not Theegala’s first time being included in this article, and it won’t be his last. Not only is the second-year player coming into this season with some very good form, but he’s shown the ability to stick around in tough crowds. He is tied for the third most T10s this season, and he’s consistently putting himself in a position to contend every single week. I think he can break through at the API. He just played an elevated event a couple of weeks ago where he finished T6 at the Genesis, ending up 3rd T2G & 4th in approach. 

-- Stuart Durst (@MonotoneFootbal)