The Honda Classic Expert Picks and Prop Bets: Top 40 Picks

Honda Classic Expert Picks and Prop Bets: Top 40 Picks

We came away empty-handed at Riviera last week. I thought we had a fairly decent chance with Wyndham Clark, but a final round of 70 was never going to be enough. He finished T33rd, two shots outside the Top 20. We say our goodbyes to the West Coast and head to Palm Beach Gardens for the Honda Classic, which marks the first event of the Florida swing.

PGA National is one of the best courses we'll see all season, but unfortunately, it never gets the strong field it rightly deserves. However, from a betting standpoint, I enjoy these weaker fields, especially for placement bets, as there are Monday qualifiers, sponsored exemptions, and alternates that barely play at this level anymore. Some of these players you can rule out, and others might represent great value. It's the type of event that can produce a few surprises, so it doesn't hurt to get a bit creative. I've done just that with three selections in the Top 40 market this week.

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Honda Classic Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

• Date: Thursday, February 23- Sunday, February 26
• Where:  PGA National Resort and Spa, Palm Beach Garden, Florida
• Where to Watch: Golf Channel, ESPN+, CBS

Click here for the Honda Classic odds

Sam Stevens Top 40 (+165) Bet $100 to collect $265. DraftKings has the best odds, click here

Earlier this year, I discussed Sam Stevens on the Lost Fore Words podcast as one of my players to watch this season. He first came on my radar in 2019, when it was still possible to bet on the All-Pro Tour (the biggest non-PGA-affiliated developmental tour in the USA). He caught my eye as he just used to dominate there. In 2020 he had three wins and a runner-up in 10 events; in 2021, he made nine of nine cuts, winning twice. Sam got off to a poor start to the season, but it looks as though he's starting to settle at this level. He has made three consecutive cuts and had a season-best finish of T13th at Torrey Pines. It's got to do wonders for his confidence.

Sam qualified for this event last year whilst still being on the Korn Ferry Tour. He was 12th at the halfway stage, then fired rounds of 73 and 74 to slip down to T55th. There are still a lot of positives from that performance. The 26-year-old took a liking to the course and test on his first visit. He's now back as a PGA Tour player with a bit more experience on his side. Last time out at Pebble Beach, Stevens hit his irons at the best we've seen at this level, ranking out 16th on Approach. When Sam was on the Korn Ferry Tour, he was a ball-striking machine, so I expect this to improve throughout the season as he continues to grow in confidence.

Interestingly, Sam has never missed a cut in Florida from five events on the LatinAmerica, Korn Ferry, and PGA Tour. I believe he's more than capable of finishing inside the Top 20, but to be on the safe side, I'd advise betting on him in the Top 40 market.

Jonas Blixt Top 40 (+440) Bet $100 to collect $540. FanDuel has the best odds, click here

Now we go to the other end of the spectrum, where PGA Tour veteran Jonas Blixt piques my interest. He was only confirmed in the field on Monday and was originally one of the alternates. Jonas was a seriously good player in his prime. He won twice on the PGA Tour and finished runner-up at the Masters in 2014. The 38-year-old Swede has been struggling in recent years, missing cut after cut, but it looks as though he might have turned a corner.

In his last two events, Jonas finished 20th at Pebble Beach and followed that up a week later with a seventh-place finish at the Astara Championship in Columbia. That's the first time he's made two consecutive cuts in nearly two years. Jonas lives in Florida and has competed at PGA National five times before. He has made the cut twice, finishing 31st and 36th. Looking at his missed cuts, they've never been disastrous, usually missing out by a shot or two. I'm hoping he can continue on the upward trend this week and finish inside the Top 40.

Andrew Kozan Top 40 (+550) Bet $100 to collect $650. FanDuel has the best odds, click here

Andrew Kozan got a sponsor exemption into last year's Honda Classic and took full advantage of that opportunity finishing T30th. The Palm Beach Gardens local was a PGA National member from a young age and grew up watching the Honda Classic every year. It was an event he had always dreamed of playing as a kid, so to achieve what he did last year meant the world to him. Kozan gets another opportunity to impress this week, and according to Honda Classic Executive Director Andrew George, "He wants to make the cut again and continue to create waves".

Andrew was a top amateur, getting to as high as 46th in the WAGR. He currently plays on the Korn Ferry Tour and won for the first time last year at the Utah Championship off the back of 11 consecutive missed cuts. He hasn't got off to the best of starts this season, missing three out of four cuts. Although, last time out in Columbia, he opened with a round of 74, then shot a second round of 67 to miss the cut on the number narrowly. It's something to build on coming into this important week. He's a talented young golfer who has an affiliation with the event and course. He used it to his advantage last year, and I'm expecting him to do the same this time around.

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