2023 Waste Management Phoenix Open Expert Picks: Our Experts' Longshot Picks

2023 Waste Management Phoenix Open Expert Picks: Our Experts' Longshot Picks

Last week's winner, Justin Rose, came in with +2400 odds, so he didn't qualify for our longshot picks. But we're back this week as our eight golf experts give us their Phoenix Open longshot picks on the PGA Tour this weekend.

The Waste Management Phoenix Open is the next stop on the PGA Tour and features some of the biggest names on the Tour, including Jon Rahm, Rory, and the defending champion of the Phoenix Open, Scottie Scheffler. 

Geoff Feinberg, Rick Gehman, Andy Lack, Brian Kirschner, Bradley Todd, Stuart Durst, Sam Eaton, and Tom Jacobs give us their favorite Phoenix Open longshot pick ahead of Thursday's first round and break down why they think this week is the right time to strike.

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Phoenix Open Longshot Picks

Tom Jacobs: JT Poston (+13000) (Bet $100 to collect $13,100)

JT Poston is a great player who probably goes under the radar as he’s fairly limited when it comes to where he can win. The good news for us is that the Phoenix Open looks like one of those spots, as he’s played this event four times, made four cuts, and never finished worse than T37. His best effort here was an 11th, where he was 8th at the halfway stage, and if you go back to his debut, he even opened with a 65 that week to sit 4th after round one.

Statistically, he’s been solid in the green, which will be important here, and the shorter course will suit his game. On his last start, Poston finished T6 at the American Express, another West Coast desert event, which is a good sign coming into this week.

-- Tom Jacobs (@TomJacobs93)

Sam Eaton: Jason Day (+7500) (Bet $100 to collect $7,600)

Here’s why any golf fan needs to use OddsChecker; Jason Day is +5500 at DraftKings Sportsbook to win the Waste Management Phoenix Open, however, is a whopping +7500 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Day hasn’t got the best of Phoenix Open records; however, his game is trending in the right direction, and after Justin Rose’s win, who knows what’s possible. Rose held off my Brendon Todd long-shot pick last week, unfortunately, though.

If you filter out the last 36 PGA Tour rounds of every player in this field, Jason Day ranks 5th for shots gained ball striking, 9th in Prox: 150-175, 2nd for bogey avoidance, and 23rd putting. You need a hot putter to win this competition, and Day’s gained over 4.9 shots with the flatstick in his last two competitions.

-- Sam Eaton (@SamEaton12) Andy Lack: Shane Lowry (+8000) (Bet $100 to collect $8,100)

I understand that Shane Lowry has not been at his best over the last few months, but +8000 on a player that routinely goes off at lower than +5000 at most major championships feels a bit irresponsible to me. The 2019 Open Championship winner remains one of the best drivers of the ball in this entire field, ranking ninth in good drive percentage, and his irons are not far behind, ranking ninth in overall strokes gained approach and 20th in long-term proximity from 150-175 yards. Lowry is a far better player than his betting market price this week, and I am willing to look past a few uninspiring results overseas, as my numbers suggest that it is only a matter of time before Lowry gets his season going in the right direction.

-- Andy Lack (@adplacksports)

Stuart Durst: Sahith Theegala (+6000) (Bet $100 to collect $6,100)

I know some people may have a bad taste in their mouths from last year when he had a chance to win this tournament, but I like going right back to him this year in Phoenix. Last year he turned a sponsor's exemption into a 3rd place finish and earned tons of fans along the way, despite missing the playoff by one shot. He's coming into this tournament in good form, finishing 4th in both SG Tee to Green & SG Approach in his last appearance. He looked comfortable on this course last season, he's risen to 34th on the WGR, and I expect his stock to continue to climb this season. It's definitely a stacked field, but he's shown he can hang with the big boys, and I'm fine with the risk at the 60/1 price tag. 

-- Stuart Durst (@MonotoneFootbal)

Bradley Todd: Taylor Montgomery (+6600) (Bet $100 to collect $6,700)

Taking a chance on Las Vegas, born and raised, Taylor Montgomery. He's been incredibly consistent since graduating from the Korn Ferry Tour. He's yet to miss a cut from 10 starts. A lot of his success has come from his dynamite of a putter. He's gained strokes on the green in eight of his ten appearances this season. The two times he hasn't were the Houston Open and The Farmers Insurance Open. These were also the two events he finished outside the top 20. Hailing from Las Vegas, Taylor is more than climatized to desert golf. He also went to college in Vegas, where they have a setup at Shadow Creek. He's a member there and broke the course record in December after shooting 60. Taylor has shown some desert form already this season. Finishing T15th at the Shriners Children Open and, more recently, 5th at The American Express. He's yet to play at TPC Scottsdale but given his success elsewhere and his desert pedigree, I'm confident it's a great fit for him. Taylor bounced back well from when he lost strokes on the green at the Houston Open earlier on in the season. I'm expecting him to do the same this week.

-- Bradley Todd (@Bradley_Todd)

Brian Kirschner: Keith Mitchell (+7500) (Bet $100 to collect $7,600)

Keith Mitchel is a golfer who shined last week at Pebble Beach and could certainly be in contention this upcoming week. I believe Mitchel has the prowess to shine this week because of how good of a ball driver he is. Time and time again, we have seen winners of this event absolutely shine off the tee. Keith ranks 3rd in SG: OTT, 14th in driving distance, and 15th in fairways gained. This is just such an elite skill set that can make him dominate this week. Mitchell also has a 10th and 16th place finish at this event, and I expect him in contention come Sunday. 

-- Brian Kirschner (@BrianKirschner_)

Rick Gehman: JT Poston (+8000) (Bet $100 to collect $8,100)

Poston is quietly playing his best golf, earning three straight T21 finishes and then a T6 at The American Express in his last start. TPC Scottsdale will ask for solid ball striking, which should lend itself to Poston's recent form. He's gained strokes on approach in four straight and has gained off-the-tee in three of his last four. Finally, he's shown an affinity for this event where he's never missed the cut and finished T11 in 2021.

-- Rick Gehman (@RickRunGood)

Geoff Fienberg: Corey Connors (+8000) (Bet $100 to collect $8,100)

Connors is my favorite player this week once we cross that 50/1 range, but I must disclose, as of writing this, I have yet to bet him, that's because I'm already overexposed with my WMPO betting card (find it on my video on the OddscheckerUS YouTube page, it'll be located in the top comment). Suppose anyone is going to crash this party from the cheap seats. In that case, I'm picking Connors, who absolutely flushed it his last time out at the Sony (gaining 10.4 strokes T2G), one of the best iron players on tour, on a course that suits his game perfectly and knack for peeping his head into a leaderboard in big boy parties. He's become one of the more consistent players on Tour; although a second win has been elusive due to the putter, we've seen plenty of bad putters rise to the occasion on these greens and can't ignore he gained nearly 3 strokes putting here in 2022.

-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)