Pebble Beach Pro-Am Expert Picks: Our Experts' Longshot Picks
Pebble Beach Pro-Am Expert Picks: Our Experts' Longshot Picks
Last week's winner, Max Home, came in with +3000 odds, so he didn't qualify for our longshot picks. But, we're back this week as our eight golf experts give us their Pebble Beach Pro-Am longshot picks for this weekend on the PGA Tour.
The Pebble Beach Pro-Am is the most iconic pro-am on Tour. We'll see everything from the usual big names to celebrities out on the course this week. And, as we've seen in the best, that can lead to some wild finishes and some wild outright picks.
Geoff Feinberg, Rick Gehman, Andy Lack, Brian Kirschner, Bradley Todd, Stuart Durst, Sam Eaton and Tom Jacobs give us their favorite Pebble Beach Pro-Am longshot pick ahead of Thursday's first round and break down why they think this week is the right time to strike.
Pebble Beach Pro-Am Longshot Picks
Tom Jacobs: Nick Taylor @ +7000 (Bet $100 to collect $7,100)
My case for Nick Taylor is very simple this week.
Pebble Beach is an event where experienced professionals do well, especially those that have already won on the Tour, and Taylor checks both of those boxes.
Taylor has not only won twice on Tour but he has also won this event back in 2020, where he was the wire-to-wire winner, in an extremely impressive performance. We have seen many repeat winners here over the years, and while Taylor is not in the class of Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson, and maybe even Brandt Snedeker, he is good enough to win this event again, in a poor field.
Taylor has finished 1st, 10th, and 14th here, and he also has finishes of 6th, 7th, and 19th on the season, so he's playing well enough to contend at an event he loves.
That 7th came two starts ago at the Sony Open, so his recent form suggests he can come back with another strong performance in a weak field, in a tournament he has had previous success at.
-- Tom Jacobs (@TomJacobs93)
Sam Eaton: Brendon Todd @ +8000 (Bet $100 to collect $8,100)
I'm not a Brendon Todd guy at all, but he seems a decent option at 80/1 in this field. He's got two top tens at this event and finished T16 last time around. He's nowhere near the dizzy heights he was in 2019, but has the ability to get very hot. Approach play will be key at this event, and if he can catch fire like the CJ Cup or Fortinet Championship he's got every chance of mounting a challenge. In the last six months, he ranks 12th SG around the green in this field and 6th shots gained Prox: 100-125.
-- Sam Eaton (@SamEaton12)
Stuart Durst: Kevin Kisner @ +9000 (Bet $100 to collect $9,100)
Considering the lack of depth at this tournament, I was surprised to see a guy like Kisner had fallen so low on the odds board. This is one of the tournaments where Kisner's lack of length shouldn’t be much of an issue. Pebble Beach is known to be a friendly spot for shorter hitters, with much more of an emphasis on approach and putting. Over the last eight tournaments, Kisner is coming in ranked 1st in SG:APP and 14th SG:PUTT. I’m more of a course fit over course history guy, and despite the middling past results here, I think he provides some good value. His top 20 at +335 is the safer bet, but I like sprinkling on a spike week from the veteran.
-- Stuart Durst (@MonotoneFootbal)
Bradley Todd: Justin Suh @ +9000 (Bet $100 to collect $9,100)
Justin Suh missed his first three cuts of the season but since then he has made seven consecutive cuts as he continues to find his feet at this level. Last week's T20 was his best finish yet. He was much better with his irons ranking 24th on approach. He also showed his love for POA Annua greens ranking 11th in putting. Justin played in this event back in 2020 where he missed the cut. Although, he played in the Pebble Beach Invitational a year later finishing 4th. He shot two rounds of 64 around Pebble Beach Golf Links. That's a bit of hidden form that might not have been picked up elsewhere and it shows exactly what he's capable of doing around here. I expect him to keep progressing and a big performance is surely on the horizon. I have a feeling it could be this week at Pebble Beach.
-- Bradley Todd (@Bradley_Todd)
Rick Gehman: Joseph Bramlett @+10000 (Bet $100 to collect $10,100)
Bramlett has more firepower than basically anyone in this field and while that won't be required off-the-tee, he'll be hitting shorter clubs than his peers into every single green. He's made six straight cuts including a T13 last week in San Diego where he gained just 0.02 strokes putting. Let me tell you, an average putting week is a big win for Bramlett who usually gives back a ton of strokes on the putting surfaces. He's back on poa annua again this week with plenty of good vibes.
-- Rick Gehman (@RickRunGood)
Brian Kirschner: Matt NeSmith @ +8500 (Bet $100 to collect $8,600)
A long shot that I am eyeing this week is Matthew NeSmith. He is currently listed at +8500 on FanDuel, I think this is an excellent price for a golfer that has shown a lot of success at this event. NeSmith has finished top 16 in two different appearances since 2020.
It has been shown time and time again that prior success at this event has been a good indicator of who is going to perform well. As 16 out of the past 16 winners here have had a prior finish of 21st or better.
This number is very inflated due to the fact that he has missed his last three cuts. However, I expect a big bounce-back week for NeSmith, who ranks 6th in this entire field in ball striking.
-- Brian Kirschner (@BrianKirschner_)
Geoff Fienberg: Taylor Moore +7000 (Bet $100 to collect $7,100)
The variance in Pebble Beach winners over the years has given us confidence that it might finally be time for a longer-odds winner on Tour. I'm rolling with Taylor Moore, whose boom-or-bust results don't scare me off in outright-winner conversation. Taylor's coming off an 11th-place finish at the Farmers which was preceded by three consecutive MCs, with a 12th and 23rd finish before that. A 16th-place finish in his debut here last year should have him comfortable and excited to build off last week's results
-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)
Andy Lack: Will Gordon @+7500 (Bet $100 to collect $7,600)
Despite a limited resume, Will Gordon is one of my favorite breakthrough candidates for the upcoming season. The 26-year-old made seven of seven cuts this fall swing, including a third-place finish at the Mayakoba and a 15th-place finish at the RSM Classic, two shorter, coastal tracks that place a heavy emphasis on wedge play and scoring inside 150 yards. Now Gordon returns to an event that he has already finished 21st at in 2021, and lest we forget that he made it all the way to the quarter-finals in the 2018 U.S. Amateur hosted at Pebble Beach. Despite coming off back-to-back missed cuts, Gordon has remained a steady ball-striker, and this is a perfect time to buy in on his talent at a depressed price.
-- Andy Lack (@adplacksports)
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Article Authors
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from Manhattan, New York. Andy came to OddsChecker in January 2022 after previously writing for Golf Digest, GolfWRX, Rotoballer, and the Score. Andy is also the host of a golf betting and daily fantasy podcast, Inside Golf Podcast, as well as "The Scramble” with Rick Gehman, and a recurring guest on the Pat Mayo Experience. In his free time, Andy is still grinding away at his lifelong dream of qualifying for the U.S. Amateur, and if not writing, can likely be found somewhere on a golf course.
Brian Kirschner is the host of the Tap in Birdie Podcast and is a golf betting content creator from Long Island. Every week Brian has prominent guests in the industry come on his podcast and break down the upcoming PGA Tour event from a betting/DFS perspective. Brian loves nothing more than sweating first round leader and outrights bets.
Bradley Todd is best known for his knowledge of golf on a global scale. He shares his bets across all the tours on his Patreon and has turned a profit of 700+ points for the last three years. He can also be found weekly on the Lost Fore Words podcast contributing his thoughts of the upcoming PGA/DPWT events.
Tom Jacobs is the host of the Lost Fore Words golf podcast and has been writing betting articles on golf for the past decade. Tom also co-hosts the DP World Tour Picks & Bets show on the Mayo Media Network, so has his finger on the pulse on all the major Tours. A long-suffering Nottingham Forest fan, Tom also enjoys watching Soccer at the weekend, and was delighted to see his Forest team win promotion this season!