Farmers Insurance Open Expert Picks: Our Experts' Longshot Picks

Farmers Insurance Open Expert Picks: Our Experts' Longshot Picks

The nature of golf betting and longshot picks means that we rarely have two experts making the same longshot pick during a week. But, this week ,for the Farmers Insurance longshot picks from our golf experts, three of them have landed on the same name.

Geoff Fienberg, Rick Gehman and Bradley Todd are all in agreement when it comes to their favorite Farmers Insurance Open longshot pick, and it comes to us at a nice +8000 price.

Geoff, Rick and Bradley are joined by Andy Lack, Brian Kirschner, Stuart Durst, Sam Eaton and Tom Jacobs as they break down their favorite pick for this week's event that comes to us at odds longer than +3500.

Oh, and if you really want to get crazy, Stuart Durst's Farmer Open Longshot pick goes off on Wednesday at +35000 odds! Read on below to see who our golf expers are backing at big prices.

Looking for sportsbook offers for the Farmers Insurance Open? We have over $5,000 in free bets just waiting to be claimed

Farmers Insurance Open Longshot Picks

Sam Eaton: Cam Davis @ +6600 (Bet $100 to collect $6,700)

Two of my picks made the playoff in this event last year, with Luke List 90/1 being the eventual winner (which was my longshot pick in this column). This year I was torn between Cam Davis, Luke List (again) and Ben Griffin. I've landed on the more reliable Cameron Davis despite his showing last week. This event requires a big hitter with hot long irons, and Cam Davis fits that criterion. The Australian is 5th in this field for driving distance in the last six months, 13th shots gained Prox: 200+ and 16th shots gained prox 150-175.

-- Sam Eaton (@SamEaton12)

Tom Jacobs: Robby Shelton @ +15000 (Bet $100 to collect $15,100)

I like both JJ Spaun and Justin Rose who qualify as longshots as well this week, but let's go for broke and an emerging talent in Robby Shelton at a huge number.

Shelton has already posted three top-15 finishes this season, one of which came last week at the American Express when he finished T6.

The former Alabama star has already won four times on the Korn Ferry Tour, boasting two-win seasons in both 2019 and 2022.

Even as an amateur, Shelton enjoyed success, as he finished 3rd at the Barbasol Championship before turning pro, the best finish by an amateur on the PGA Tour since Mickelson won as one in 1991.

He has a history here, finishing T36 and T16 in two starts at this event, and while he has yet to post a low enough round at the South Course to really compete, I think that changes this week. His 64 at the North Course when finishing 16th shows he can score as required there, and it will not come down to breaking 70 for the first time over the weekend rounds.

-- Tom Jacobs (@TomJacobs93)

Rick Gehman: Taylor Pendrith @ +8000 (Bet $100 to collect $8,100)

Pendrith missed the cut in Palm Springs last week but there are no concerns about that. We knew it wouldn't be a good set-up for him but Torrey Pines should be one of the better courses on the schedule. He can tap into his strong off-the-tee play -- gaining 0.80 strokes per round over his last 50 -- and separate himself from the field. He finished T16 at this event last year and has the ability to do even better this time around.

-- Rick Gehman (@RickRunGood)

Geoff Fienberg: Taylor Pendrith @ +8000 (Bet $100 to collect $8,100)

Going with the big-hitting Canadian this week, Taylor Pendrith +8000. Torrey Pines has a long history of rewarding dominant drivers of the golf ball with a prestigious spot on the leaderboard. Pendrith provides a poor man's version of a skill set you will normally pay a premium price for at Torrey. If I'm tasked with finding someone on the Luke List at Torrey Pines trajectory, then for me it's Pendrith

-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)

Best Sportsbook Offers

1. DRAFTKINGS: Bet $5, Get $200 INSTANTLY on ANY sport
2. FANDUEL: Bet $5, Get $150 GUARANTEED. Win or Lose
3. POINTSBET: Get up to FIVE second-chance bets. Up to $100 EACH

Andy Lack: Cam Davis @ +6600 (Bet $100 to collect $6,700)

I believe that Cam Davis has now been featured in this column for the third week in a row, and I do not fault anyone for refusing the possibility of more pain. Still, either he is a complete Ponzi scheme, or the former Rocket Mortgage Classic champion remains one of the best values on the board at a course that should accentuate his strongest skill sets to a tee. Once we get past Rahm, Xander, Finau, Zalatoris, Sungjae, and Max Homa, the list of players that possess all four essential Torrey Pines skill sets get extremely short. Hideki Matsuyama and the Australian are the only two players in this field past 30/1 that possess elite driving ability, are top-20 long iron players with above-average short games, and have a proven track record of success on West Coast Poa greens. Coming off a missed cut by seven strokes at the American Express, we are getting a top-10 player in my model this week at a completely depressed price, and I expect him to start paying off his most loyal of defenders sooner rather than later.

-- Andy Lack (@adplacksports)

Stuart Durst: Austin Smotherman @ +35000 (Bet $100 to collect $35,100)

While you can still get very good odds on a top 10/20 finish, I like taking a small risk on the California native here. Last season, he ended up with a very impressive debut T11 finish, ranking second in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, only behind Will Zalatoris. Everyone knows how beneficial that length can be off the tee at Torrey Pines, and if his putter can run hot then we have a real chance at being in contention on Sunday. This is a very strong field, but this number just feels too high given his past performance here and his length off the tee.

-- Stuart Durst (@MonotoneFootbal)

Bradley Todd: Taylor Pendrith @ +8000 (Bet $100 to collect $8,100)

Avoided Pendrith last year at big prices, despite thinking Torrey Pines would be a great fit for him based off his Korn Ferry Tour stats. I was kicking myself when I saw he was in and around the top ten going into the final round. He finished T15th at the end, which was a respectable result on his debut. I anticipate Taylor can better that result this year and potentially spring a surprise. He has all the attributes to play well again on this course. One of the biggest hitters on tour, a great long iron player, a tidy short game and he putted well on the South Course POA greens, gaining over 2 strokes on the field last year. He returns a much improved, experienced player after some superb performances on the PGA Tour since his last appearance at Torrey Pines. Available at a generous price this week coming off a MC where he shook off some holiday rust, love his chances.

-- Bradley Todd (@Bradley_Todd)

Brian Kirschner: Wyndham Clark @ +8000 (Bet $100 to collect $8,100)

An outright that I am targeting for the Farmers Insurance Open is Wyndham Clark at +80000. Given the length of the course, having distance off the tee can be a huge advantage. Over the past 50 rounds, Clark ranks first in this field in driving distance, 8th in prox from 200+, and 14th in SG: ARG. On a very basic level, all three of these stats are going to be extremely important this week, so this is great to see. Wyndham also historically raises his baseline putting on Poa greens as he was able to gain over 6 strokes putting at this event last year. Clark is someone I think can have a breakout year and I think this is a perfect spot for him to get his first win. You can find him at +8000 on BetMGM. 

-- Brian Kirschner (@BrianKirschner_)

Are you already signed up at DraftKings and FanDuel? Click "CLAIM NOW" on the amazing offer below for a new place to bet!