Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Prop Pick: Can Yankees Get to Graham Ashcraft, Reds Early?
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Prop Pick: Can Yankees Get to Graham Ashcraft, Reds Early?
The Cincinnati Reds take on the New York Yankees tonight for the first game of a 3-game series at Yankee stadium. The Reds will send Graham Ashcraft to the mound to open the series.
Reds vs. Yankees DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: July 2, 2024
- Start Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: YES Network, MLB Extra Innings
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Prediction
Ashcraft has had his fair share of struggles this season, so much so that the Reds decided to send him down to the minors, but he was recalled when a spot opened back up in the starting pitching rotation. In his return, Ashcraft allowed six earned runs and nine total hits in 5.1 innings pitched. That start was against a Pittsburgh Pirates team that ranks 27th in wRC+ (85), 27th in batting average (.227), and 23rd in runs scored per game.
Tonight, he faces a Yankees offense that leads the league in wRC+ (123) against right-handed pitchers, and that number increases to (129) when they are playing at home. New York ranks second in all of baseball, scoring an average of 5.08 runs per game. Ashcraft will have his work cut out for him against this offense, and his numbers this season suggest that he will struggle in this matchup.
On the year, Ashcraft holds a 5.45 ERA, his xBA (.291) puts him in the bottom 9th percentile, and his hard hit percentage (45.6%) also puts him in the bottom 9th percentile amongst qualified pitchers. He has allowed 3+ earned runs in each of his last seven starts, and that trend should continue against one of the best offenses in baseball.
History is on our side as well, Ashcraft has made one career start against the Yankees which was back in the 2022 season. In that outing, he pitched 5.0 innings and gave up three earned runs. Today, I’m hoping for a similar result, and taking the over on Graham Ashcraft’s 2.5 earned runs allowed player prop. Trusting the New York Yankees to put runs on the board early in this series home opener.