Jan 15, 9:07am | 10 min read

Saturday Free Horse Racing Picks: Late Pick Four at Santa Anita

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Saturday is Cal Cup Day at Santa Anita, and a number of stakes races have attracted some of the most talented state-breds on the circuit. The wagering menu features a mandatory payout in the Pick Six, which means potential spillover into the late Pick Four.

ANALYSIS

Saturday Free Horse Racing Picks: Late Pick Four at Santa Anita

Saturday is Cal Cup Day at Santa Anita, and a number of stakes races have attracted some of the most talented state-breds on the circuit. The wagering menu features a mandatory payout in the Pick Six, which means potential spillover into the late Pick Four.

That sequence starts in the seventh of 10 races on the Saturday program. I’ll attack it with a $30 ticket, and here’s how I’ve put it together.

RACE #7

We start the sequence with an optional claiming event that’s drawn an eight-horse field. Your guess is as good as mine with regard to which runner will go favored, and I’m going three-deep.

My top pick is #1 ADMIRABLY, whose recent record looks far better if you toss his two recent turf races. His last-out win at Del Mar came at this level over several rivals that also show up in this spot, and there should be plenty of pace signed on to set up for his late kick. The rail draw isn’t ideal, but I think he could be talented enough to overcome it.

I’ll also use #2 SCARY FAST SMILE and #6 BRACE FOR IMPACT. The latter runner intrigues me at a bit of a price. His return off a nine-month break was pretty good, as he pressed a solid pace and was beaten less than two lengths by my top selection. Any sort of step forward second off the bench may be good enough to get him in the winner’s circle.

RACE #8

Older fillies and mares will go down the hill in the second leg. The Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf Sprint drew a field of 12, plus one also-eligible, and I’ll zig where most handicappers may zag. In a field that looks pretty wide-open at first glance, some may be inclined to spread, but I’ll single my top pick.

#9 WARREN’S SHOWTIME is one of the most honest horses in training. She’s run 24 times, and she’s finished out of the money just twice. She runs well on both turf and dirt, and she gets some class relief here after chasing multiple graded stakes winner As Time Goes By in the Grade 3 Bayakoa. Warren’s Showtime’s lone start to date down the hill was a win in a similar race three back, and I think she gets the exact same setup here. She wants to rate a few lengths off of a solid pace and come rolling late, and that’s precisely the trip she figures to get.

RACE #9

Singling Warren’s Showtime allows me to spread in the last two legs, and I’m doing that for several reasons. The Don Valpredo Cal Cup Sprint will go with a field of eight, and I’m against 9/5 morning line favorite #3 BRICKYARD RIDE. At his best, he almost certainly wins, but he hasn’t run since August and he got a bit inconsistent towards the end of that campaign. He also won’t be alone up front early on. Maybe he beats me, but his likely price hits me as a significant underlay.

I’ll use four others, and my top selection is #4 POSITIVITY. He did everything but win last time out, when he contested a pretty fast pace at this level at Del Mar. It took a little while for trainer Doug O’Neill to figure him out after a claim in July, but if the last two starts are any indication, he’s going the right way. I think he’ll sit an ideal stalking trip beneath Flavien Prat and get first run at the pace-setters turning for home.

#6 LETSGETLUCKY, #7 PRINCIPE CARLO, and #8 COLT FICTION are on my ticket as well. Letsgetlucky is 12-1 on the morning line, and anything close to that price hits me as very juicy. He’s never missed the board in seven lifetime starts and makes his third start off the layoff here. He went from an 87 Beyer Speed Figure two back to a 94 last time out, and another step forward gives him a legitimate shot at a nice price.

RACE #10

We’ll finish with the Cal Cup Oaks for 3-year-old fillies going a mile on the turf. This is a pretty tough race to handicap. Many of the most proven runners (at least based on ability) are trying turf for the first time, which means deep dives into pedigrees are required.

One horse that’s proven on turf is #8 DENDERA, who comes back to her preferred surface for trainer John Sadler. She won twice on turf a season ago, and her lone defeat on the green came when she was fifth against much better horses in a stakes race at Del Mar. Kent Desormeaux hasn’t won much at the meet, but despite going just 2-for-28, he’s recorded six seconds and eight thirds as of this writing.

Dendera is one of five runners I’m using in an attempt to bring this home. #1 BIG NOVEL, #3 VIVACIOUS VANESSA, #6 ELEUTHERA, and #11 ROSE DAWSON would also make my ticket more valuable, especially because I’m against 5/2 morning line choice #7 PROFESSORS’ PRIDE. Yes, that filly is 2-for-2, but she’s never tried turf before and will likely face some opposition up front going into the first turn.