San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks Prediction: Hit the First Touchdown Scorer in This Wild Card Matchup

San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks Prediction: Hit the First Touchdown Scorer in This Wild Card Matchup

After a long, 18-week regular season, the NFL playoffs are finally here. The first round of the playoffs consists of six games, three from each conference. The first two games are on Saturday, starting with the Seahawks' visit to San Francisco to face the 49ers for the third time this season. Despite the fact that this is a divisional matchup, the 49ers are heavily favored, with the spread currently hovering around -10 for San Francisco. This line is reasonably fair—San Francisco is one of the best teams in the league. Indeed, they are absolutely in the mix of Super Bowl contenders, even with Brock Purdy under center. Seattle had a wildly successful regular season—given their preseason expectations—but they will be hard-pressed to get a win in this spot.

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For this game, we're taking a look at the first touchdown scorer market. In other words, our goal is to determine which players in this game have a higher chance to score the first touchdown of the day than their market odds imply. Remember, the task isn't simply to identify the players most likely to score first. That just tells us which players should have the shortest odds. Rather, we're looking to find players who are underpriced for this prop—that is how to win over the long run. Let's dive in.

49ers vs. Seahawks Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

• Date: January 14, 2023
• Game Time: 4:30 pm ET
• Where to Watch: FOX

Click here for 49ers vs. Seahawks odds

San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks First Touchdown Scorer

First TD Scorer: Elijah Mitchell (+1200) Bet $100 to collect $1,300 Best odds available at FanDuel, click here to bet

From a usage perspective, the obvious choice for this prop is Christian McCaffrey. However, McCaffrey's odds to score first on Saturday are around +400, a number way too short to bet for a prop with this level of variance. So, we will instead pivot to the other San Francisco running back Elijah Mitchell, who made his return in Week 18 following an eight-week injury absence. I expect Mitchell to see a sizable number of carries during this postseason run; he will capture a higher share of the 49ers' backfield from McCaffrey than most realize.

Part of this is because McCaffrey will be heavily utilized in the passing game. Still, I see Mitchell as a legitimate piece within an offense that may be looking to shield seventh-round rookie quarterback Brock Purdy, especially given that this will be Purdy's first playoff start. Expect Shanahan to heavily deploy the run game early, including in the red zone. I think this bet is worth a shot at 12-1, but wouldn't play it much lower than this.

First TD Scorer: George Kittle (+800) Bet $100 to collect $900 Best odds available at FanDuel, click here to bet

Of the two bets, this is the one I think holds the most value. Over the last few weeks, as Brock Purdy has settled into the San Francisco offense, he has developed a legitimate rapport with tight-end George Kittle in the passing game. Indeed, Kittle has scored a whopping seven touchdowns in his last four games, a figure that demonstrates Purdy's propensity to target Kittle in the red zone. This statistic should not come as a surprise to anyone—elite tight ends tend to be reliable targets for young quarterbacks, leading to an even higher target share for said tight ends than one might expect.

There is a good chance we see this trend continue on Saturday—in a one-and-done playoff game, Purdy is likely to revert to targeting his most trusted weapons more than usual (when he is allowed to throw the ball, which might not be often). Kittle, in my opinion, is the most likely non-running back to score the first touchdown of the game, which doesn't seem to be wholly reflected in this price. I'd feel comfortable betting this prop down to about +650.

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