Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams Best Anytime TD Scorer Bets: Week 18 Player Props
Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams Best Anytime TD Scorer Bets: Week 18 Player Props
The final week of the NFL regular season always creates fascinating narratives—some teams are fighting for their playoff lives, others are battling for playoff seeding, and others still have nothing but draft positioning to consider. These conflicting incentives lend themselves to interesting betting angles, as teams will undoubtedly have varying levels of motivation to win their games this weekend. Some teams, naturally, will have already mailed it in on their seasons (which will become evident shortly after those teams kick off). Others, such as the Giants, Bucs, and Vikings, have already (effectively) locked themselves into certain seeds, meaning that is in those teams' best interests to rest starters ahead of their first playoff games. Therefore, any handicap of a Week 18 game must begin from a motivational lens: how motivated is each team to win their game?
In the case of the Rams vs. Seahawks, though, I am fairly confident that both teams will be putting their best foot forward. The Seahawks, of course, have everything to play for—they need a win to stay alive in the race for the final NFC wildcard spot (with a win and a Lions win on Sunday night, the Seahawks would be in as the No. 7 seed). The Seahawks might be playing their last game at home in Seattle, Washington, giving them even more momentum for Sunday. The Rams, meanwhile, are already eliminated, but they do not own their first-round pick, meaning that they have essentially zero motivation to tank. So, expect starters from both teams to play throughout the course of the game, as they would in any other week. As such, we can approach handicapping the anytime TD scorer market as we normally would—identify inefficient prices by focusing on positional, competitive advantages.
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Seahawks vs. Rams Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
- Date: January 8, 2023
- Game Time: 4:25 pm ET
- Where to Watch: FOX
Seahawks vs. Rams Odds
- Spread: Seahawks -6 (-110)
- Total Odds: O/U 41 (-110)
- Moneyline Odds:Â Seahawks -260 / Rams +220
Click here for Seahawks vs. Rams odds
Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks
Cam Akers Anytime TD (+130) Bet $100 to collect $230. FanDuel has the best odds, click here to bet
Cam Akers' resurgence has been one of the more intriguing, albeit under-the-radar, storylines of the 2022 NFL season. After being written off by most due to his seemingly inadequate comeback from an achilles injury, Akers regained a starting role for the Rams around Week 13. Since then, he has carried the ball 12 or more times in five-straight games, scoring six touchdowns over the span. Three of those scores came in Week 16 against a stout Broncos front, a game in which he carried the ball 23 times. Given that he attained that level of usage (i.e. that of a workhorse back) just two weeks ago, Akers probably shouldn't be priced this far north of even money to score in any game.
Luckily for us, it isn't any game! The Seahawks have allowed the seventh-most rushing touchdowns of any defense in the NFL, meaning that Akers likely has a favorable matchup in this spot with respect to his touchdown chances. This is not a statistical aberration on the part of the Seahawks' defense, either—their run D is the ninth-worst in the league in terms of DVOA. Look for the Rams to continue to run the ball at volume — especially in the red zone — just as they have over the last few weeks. This prop should be priced around +105—safely bet it down to +110.
Tyler Higbee Anytime TD (+320) Bet $100 to collect $420. Bet365 has the best odds, click here to bet
Tyler Higbee's usage has ramped up in recent weeks, a fact on which we can capitalize. Firstly, his role in the Rams' offense has remained high—Higbee has recorded a snap percentage north of 80% in each of his last five games. Next, he has been consistently targeted in scoring range, a pattern that has materialized in the form of three touchdowns over his last three games. On top of that, the Seahawks are just as bad at keeping tight ends out of the end zone as they are running backs—Seattle's defense has allowed the eighth-most receiving touchdowns amongst NFL defenses to tight ends. My model prices this bet closer to +230, giving us a nice chunk of value in this spot.