Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals Player Prop Picks: Will Tennessee Lean on the Run?
Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals Player Prop Picks: Will Tennessee Lean on the Run?
The Tennesee Titans miraculously secured the AFC's #1 Seed thanks to a tie-breaker over the Chiefs. And, it's already paying dividends. Instead of hosting one of the Chiefs or the Bills, the Titans have secured a home game against the Cincinnati Bengals this Saturday.
Joe Burrow and the Bengals have been a great story as this season's AFC North champs. But, it remains to be seen whether or not they have enough to take down the Titans during the return of superstar running back Derrick Henry.
Click Here for Titans vs Bengals Odds
Ryan Tannehill Under 299.5 Passing Yards + CJ Uzomah Over 2.5 Receptions (-140) (Bet $140 to Win $100)
*Odds Available at DraftKings at Time of Publishing*
Leg 1: Ryan Tannehill Under 299.5 Passing Yards
For starters, Ryan Tannehill only threw for 300+ Passing Yards twice in 17 games this season. He's remained under this mark in 28 of his 33 regular-season contests over the last two seasons.
That's just the regular season. Tanny is yet to reach even 210 passing yards in four playoff starts with the Titans. His marks of 133.5 passing yards and just 21.5 attempts per game in the postseason suggest he won't see the volume needed to approach the 300 mark against Cincy.
The Titans have been one of the lowest volume passing offenses around the league during the Derrick Henry era. Tannehill's 229 yards per game over the last two seasons and 220 yards per game this season shouldn't come as a major surprise.
Tennessee threw just 31.5 passes per game this season, well below the league average of 34.4. This also ranked as the 7th fewest attempts per game in 2021. This is coming off of a 2020 campaign that saw the AFC South division champs attempt the 3rd fewest passes per game. Tennessee has miraculously ranked top three in Run Rate every year since 2019. This is not a knock on Tannehill, who has mostly always been productive for the Titans. But, with Derrick Henry's return imminent, expect conservative, run-heavy play calls this Saturday.
Leg 2: CJ Uzomah Over 2.5 Receptions
Uzomah enjoyed a career year for the Bengals this season. He finished with 49 receptions for 493 yards and 5 touchdowns. More importantly, he was terrific down the stretch. He's become a nearly every-down player for Cincinnati and has fully gained Joe Burrow's trust in the passing game.
The Cincy tight end has just one 3+ reception game in the first five weeks of the 2021 season. Since then, he's ripped off 11 three-plus reception games in his last 12.
After averaging just 2.6 targets and 2.2 receptions per game in his first five games, Uzomah is posting impressive per-game averages of 4.7 targets and 3.7 receptions since then. He's seen at least six targets in 5 of his last 6 games, playing over 80% of the team's offensive snaps during this stretch, too.
Tennesee's opponents averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game this season, good for the third-highest mark in the NFL. Uzomah's 15% target share since the midpoint of the 2021 NFL season should result in at least 5 targets if Burrow is throwing even close to that much this Saturday. And that type of volume would be more than enough for him to reel in three receptions. Look for Cincy's young QB to find one of his safety blankets a few times in Round 2.