Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers Player Prop Picks: No Denying Deebo

Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers Player Prop Picks: No Denying Deebo

I can't even try to contain my excitement for this weekend's NFL slate. Playoff football is probably the greatest invention we've ever seen on Earth, and now we get six games over a span of three days. We're basically living in a dream.

For starters, this old-school, throwback matchup between the NFC East champion Cowboys and the streaking Niners is probably my favorite of the six matchups featured in the 2022 edition of Wild Card Weekend. Sunday can't come soon enough, so let's jump into the picks!

Click Here for Cowboys vs 49ers Odds

Deebo Samuel Over 28.5 Rushing Yards (-110) (Bet $110 to Win $100)

*Odds Available at Caesars at Time of Publishing*

Deebo Samuel might be more dangerous with the ball in his hands than anyone else in football right now. Head Coach Kyle Shanahan and the San Francisco coaching staff seem to have realized this, too. Deebo led all qualified pass-catchers in yards per reception, while also finishing 4th in yards per rush attempt among all players with at least 50 attempts. It doesn't matter how the Niners choose to involve him in the offense. All we know is that there's no denying Deebo.

Samuel is all but guaranteed a spot on the NFL's All-Pro 1st-Team this year, and for good reason. He even led the entire league with 4.7 rushing yards after contact per attempt. His 8 rushing touchdowns were the most ever by a wide receiver this season. He's basically breaking football. Now, let's get to this rushing line, which is set far too low for the stud playmaker.

Deebo has hit the over on this rushing line in 7 of his last 8 games. In the back half of the 2021 season, he averaged 6.6 carries and 42.9 rushing yards per game. He compiled double-digit touches in four straight games to close the season, averaging 11.5 touches per game in his last four. Shanahan continues to find creative ways to get the ball in Samuel's hands, and with Jimmy Garoppolo playing through a thumb injury, that shouldn't waiver.

Let's take a look at the matchup. The Cowboys have been strong defensively this season. But, they can certainly be exploited on the ground. Dallas ranks 20th in expected points contributed by rushing defense and just 25th in opponent yards per attempt. The Niners sport the league's 4th highest run rate and ranked 7th in rushing yards as a team. Deebo has accounted for 20% of SF's rushing attempts over his last 8 games, seeing at least five carries in every game. Look for the Niners to go at Dallas on the ground and continue to feature their superstar weapon in the trenches.

Dalton Schultz Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110) (Bet $110 to Win $100)

*Odds Available at FanDuel at Time of Publishing*

Dalton Schultz has become one of the NFL's most consistent producers at the tight end position. He finished 3rd in receptions and 6th in receiving yards among all tight ends in 2021 and was just one reception away from tying CeeDee Lamb for the most by a Dallas pass catcher this season.

Schultz closed the season strong, averaging 56 yards per game while seeing 21.3% of the targets from Dak Prescott. For the season, Schultz had at least 40 receiving yards in 12 of his 17 games, good for a 70.6% hit rate on the over.

Dallas WR Michael Gallup suffered a season-ending ACL tear in a loss to the Cardinals two weeks ago, which should open up more downfield opportunities for the Cowboys' top tight end. Schultz averaged 45.3 yards per game with Gallup in the lineup this season, but that increased to 50.0 YPG without Gallup. Excluding Dallas' Week 18 win where Schultz only played in the first half, he had at least 50 yards in 5 of 7 games with Gallup sidelined.

San Francisco's run defense has been far better than their pass defense this season, while Dallas' passing attack has been more efficient than their rushing attack lately. The Cowboys should lean on Dak Prescott in their first playoff game in three years. With Gallup sidelined and his chemistry with Schultz appearing to be at an all-time high, Dak should look Schultz's way quite a bit on Sunday afternoon.