Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals Player Prop Picks: Can Seattle Spoil Arizona's Week 18?
Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals Player Prop Picks: Can Seattle Spoil Arizona's Week 18?
Russell Wilson Under 0.5 Interceptions (-120 @ Caesar's)
Russell Wilson's run in Seattle could potentially come to a close soon, which creates a possibility that this Sunday's matchup is his last as a member of the Seahawks. This year has been an unsuccessful one for Seattle, but it's important to remember that Russ is one of the greatest quarterbacks in recent NFL history. And, one of the primary reasons for his high level of play over the years has been his elite ball security.
Wilson has thrown an interception in just 4 of his 13 games this season and in just 39% of his games since 2018. Recently, he's hit the under in 5 of his last 7 games, a run that began with an interception-less outing against this same Cardinals squad.
The Cardinals' defense hasn't been a weak spot for the team this season. However, Arizona's defensive unit doesn't force a ton of turnovers. The Cards have picked off a pass in 8 of their 16 games this season. Only eight teams have fewer games forcing an interception this season. Their secondary has also hit a cold streak lately, as they've now gone four consecutive games without an interception.
The Cardinals' pass defense has displayed some feast-or-famine tendencies this season, struggling against good QB's and feasting against bad QB's. Wilson falls into the good QB group, as his 1.3% interception rate places him 3rd out of 32 qualified passers. He's throwing a pick just once every 74.8 pass attempts, which is the second-best mark of his decade-long career. Arizona has faced 6 QB's in the top half of the INT% rankings and not a single one gave away an interception to the Cardinals.
Russ has been one of the NFL's best at taking care of the rock over the last decade, and I like his chances to keep his passes in Seattle's possession in Week 18.
Arizona Cardinals Team Total Under 27.5 Points (-115 @ DraftKings)
The Cardinals started the season as one of the NFL's most prolific offenses. They've trailed off considerably in the second half of the 2021 season, however.
Arizona went 7-0 in their first seven games, scoring 32.1 PPG during this stretch, good for 4th in the NFL. They've gone 4-5 in nine games since, averaging just 21.6 PPG, good for the 17th-ranked scoring offense in the NFL. The Cards have remained under 27.5 points scored in 7 of their last 9 games and their recent offensive struggles can be attributed to several different factors.
A major reason for Arizona's massive offensive decline is the absence of superstar WR DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins has been sidelined for six games this season. In these six contests, Arizona has scored just 19.5 PPG, remaining under the 27.5 line in five of six games. Their sub-twenty scoring average is a far cry from the 30.2 PPG the team scored on a weekly basis with Hopkins in the lineup.
Arizona Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury has a tall task in front of him in the closing week of the regular season. The Cards are hosting the division-rival Seahawks, whose defense has quietly improved quite a bit throughout the season.
Seattle has held their opponents under 27.5 points in 12 of their last 13 outings. The only exception was just last week against the Lions, where the Seahawks conceded a substantial amount of garbage time points after holding a 31-7 halftime lead.
The Seahawks are allowing just 21.0 PPG, which places them as the NFL's 10th best scoring defense this season. Their run defense was one of the league's weakest units through the first few weeks of the season but has done a complete 180-degree turn. Seattle has the 2nd-ranked rush defense by expected points and yards per carry allowed. They're allowing just 3.4 yards per carry over their last 10 games, while no other defense is holding their opponents below 3.7 YPC.
Arizona, already without Hopkins, will now be missing Chase Edmonds and Rondale Moore this week as well. The Cards may struggle to move the ball again this week, especially on the ground. Kingsbury and Kyler Murray's offense hasn't looked the same lately and a 28-point outing doesn't seem like it will be in the cards for Arizona.
AJ Green Longest Reception Over 21.5 Yards (-115 @ DraftKings)
AJ Green has adjusted quite well to a new role in his first year with the Cardinals this season. His 16.5 yards per reception isn't only the best mark of his 11-year career. Green's 16.5 Y/R ranks 5th among 153 players with at least 30 catches in 2021.
Especially in DeAndre Hopkins' absence, Kyler Murray has honed in on Green as his favorite downfield target. Green's 12.5-yard average target depth is the highest mark among all of Arizona's pass catchers. His 13.0 air yards per reception also rank first on the Cards.
Green has a reception of at least 22 yards in 11 of 15 games this season, as well as a long reception of 21 yards in the Cards' season opener. His deep-ball numbers only improve when Hopkins is sidelined. AJG is posting 19.5 Y/R in five games without Hopkins, with a reception of at least 22 yards in four of these five games.
The former Cincinnati wideout got loose for catches of 31 yards and 21 yards last game against Seattle and should see plenty of opportunities to make a big play on Sunday.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals Picks
- Russell Wilson Under 0.5 Interceptions
- Arizona Cardinals Team Total Under 27.5 Points
- AJ Green Longest Reception Over 21.5 Yards