Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens Player Prop Prediction: Bank on the Hollywood Brown Show
Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens Player Prop Prediction: Bank on the Hollywood Brown Show
We have a fun one here between two divisional rivals with something to play for as they face each other with a month left in the regular season. I found a plus odds play that I’m very confident backing.
Click Here For Browns vs. Ravens Odds
Marquise Brown Over 4.5 Receptions (+100)
Line Available at DraftKings at Time of Publishing
Simply put, I find this number too low. Hollywood has hit this in five straight and 8 of 11 games on the season. Funny enough, he just played this same Cleveland team two weeks ago. I would say it’s a pretty encouraging sign that he caught eight balls in that game. Baltimore has been finding ways to get Brown involved that aren’t just him running a deep route and hoping he outruns the defender.
Lamar has been throwing to Marquise in situations where he can provide yards after the catch. Although it hasn’t been all that effective thus far, we know what Hollywood can do in open space. In their last matchup, Brown had 8 receptions for just 51 yards. That low receiving total may deter some people, but I love that. Shorter passes are more likely to be completions, and it looks like Lamar Jackson sees Brown as a security blanket.
At first glance, you would think that Cleveland is an above-average defense and that you shouldn’t want to target overs against them. However, that’s true in most cases, but they have allowed five or more quite frequently when it comes to receptions to pass catchers. Below I’ve listed every pass-catcher to exceed 5+ receptions, so you understand how possible this is.
- Week 1: Tyreek Hill 11/197
- Week 1: Travis Kelce 6/76
- Week 2: Brandin Cooks 9/78
- Week 4: Justin Jefferson 6/84
- Week 5: Mike Williams 8/165
- Week 5: Keenan Allen 6/75
- Week 6: Christian Kirk 5/75
- Week 6: AJ Green 5/79
- Week 7: Noah Fant 5/39
- Week 7: Javonte Williams 6/32
- Week 7: Cortland Sutton 5/68
- Week 8: Diontae Johnson 6/98
- Week 9: Tee Higgins: 6/78
- Week 9: Jamarr Chase: 6/49
- Week 9: Joe Mixon: 5/46
- Week 11: TJ Hockenson 6/51
- Week 12: Marquise Brown 8/51
There have only been two weeks the Browns have not allowed a 5+ reception catcher. Week 3 against Chicago when Justin Fields was still getting acclimated to the NFL. Fields completed six passes all game. If Lamar replicates that, I will print out this article and eat the piece of paper. The other time was Week 10 against New England. The Patriots beat Cleveland so bad they could run the ball all game. Patriots ran the ball 34 times and won the game by 38 points.
Baltimore enters this game as a field-goal underdog. In games where Baltimore loses, we have seen Brown hit this in 4/4 on the year. Although I can’t say with absolute certainty that will be the result, I would say it is fair to predict this game to remain close. If that’s the case, passing should be a viable option in all four quarters, and our bet should have legs if it extends into the late game. Brown is a target hog, but we don’t need him to turn into Jerry Rice on Sunday. Just go out there and get us five measly 8-yard catches, and we’ll thank you for your service.