Houstons Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Prediction: Ride Jonathan Taylor's Impressive Run
Houstons Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Prediction: Ride Jonathan Taylor's Impressive Run
Another week, another unwatchable game, I try to make watchable. It seems like I found myself betting on Houston games every week. This time, we are betting against them, and I think you could guess the player I'm rolling with, given the matchup.
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Jonathon Taylor Anytime TD/over 84.5 rushing yards (-140)
Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Jonathan Taylor continues to impress week in and week out, and I don't expect any different this week. He proved to me that he was matchup-proof last week vs. Tampa Bay. He now finds the Texans, allowing the second-most rushing yards and the fourth most rushing touchdowns. As Derrick Henry is sidelined, I would say it's fair to say that Taylor is currently the most consistent and impressive runner we're witnessing. I feel like you all have seen how dominant Taylor has been, but allow me to refresh your memory.
Taylor has hit this prop in 6 of his last 9 but has scored a touchdown in those nine games as well. I feel like the touchdown is a given. We're essentially getting a 20 yard discount on his yards. He missed this prop against 2 yards against the Bucs, but they are the number 1 rush defense, so that's still mighty impressive. During this unbelievable stretch, he did face-off against this same Texans team. He ran for a cool 145 yards and had two touchdowns. We don't even need him to do all of that. Just 85 yards and one touchdown will suffice.
The Colts enter this game as 10 point favorites, so I feel really good about the chances of Taylor getting 85 yards rushing. We have seen JT's snap count increase through the year. Although we may see a brief moment of NyHeim Hines, it isn't something I'm overly worried about. Taylor outran Hines last week with 16 attempts to just 1. This is a very nice sign that they are finally giving him the true bell-cow gig. Hopefully, the days of Hines/Mack combining for double-digit carries are over.
Houston has allowed at least one rushing touchdown in 9 of 11 games. Taylor is the NFL leader in touchdowns, and I know he wants to keep increasing that number. If the Colts are in the red zone, he will be in the backfield. Sometimes when we see impressive streaks like this, I choose to stay away out of fear for teams game-planning solely to stop them. For JT, that just isn't the case. He hasn't been prevented from the endzone since September! There's a reason his touchdown prop is set -250 or higher everywhere you look.
I'm not always a believer in riding this chalk, but this is an elite player who has a great matchup vs. a team he already smacked. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to find this spot, but we will gladly take the bet and ride with it. If by some miracle, we see Houston take an early lead, we have seen Indianapolis remain consistent with the run game regardless of the score. The regular rushing prop is set at 105.5, and although I still lean over on that, why not go 20 yards lower and add a touchdown considering he has one in nine straight games. I feel really good about this one. See you all at the ATM.