Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings Player Prop Prediction: Alexander Mattison Steps Into Workhorse Role
Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings Player Prop Prediction: Alexander Mattison Steps Into Workhorse Role
The winless Lions take on the Vikings for a game that could only be enjoyed by gamblers. This is another week I do not anticipate the Lions breaking the drought. I fully expect Minnesota to walk into Detroit and take care of business. Luckily for us, this prop is game script proof.
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Alexander Mattison Over 95.5 rushing + receiving Yards (-114)
Mattison steps into the workhorse role with Dalvin Cook sidelined. The last time we saw Mattison in this role was coincidentally against this same Lions team. In that game, he had 113 rushing yards and 40 receiving yards for a total of 15 rushing/receiving. Lions allow the 5th most rushing yards to running backs. Although they have a good track record vs. defending running backs receiving the ball, I put more stock into Mattison getting seven receptions against them in their last matchup.
Whether the Lions pull off a miracle or not, this prop should have legs. Although it's very unlikely, if Minnesota has to abandon the run, then Minnesota will simply keep him involved in the passing game. The other time this season where we saw Mattison as the lead back was against Seattle. In that contest, he had a combined 171 yards. This prop is simply too low for what he's capable of and considering the matchup. I feel so great about this prop. I'm laying 1.5 units on it as opposed to my normal 1u. I'm that confident about it.
Mattison is projected 20 rushes, and every running back who has seen that volume has hit this prop. Joe Mixon, Elijah Mitchell, Aaron Jones, David Montgomery, Najee Harris, Nick Chubb, and Alexander Mattison himself have all hit this vs. Detroit this year. I've always believed that Mattison and Minnesota's O-line should take care of business against Detroit's lackluster d-line. This is such a nice spot for him, and I love that he's coming into this game with mostly fresh legs. If there's a flaw with this play, I struggle to find it.
Lastly, one of the main reasons I love this prop is I know for an absolute fact this line will move. Fanduel has this prop lower than every other sportsbook by 12 yards. The value that they are giving us is absolutely insane, and it is every season for them to do so during the season of giving. If you're reading this, I would like to start by saying thank you but secondly, advise you to act fast! Being a Lions fan isn't a quality I would wish upon my worst enemy, but I'm somehow still powering through. Looking forward to celebrating this one with you guys on Sunday