Cincinnati Bengals vs. Los Angeles Chargers Player Prop Picks: Attempts, Attempts, and More Attempts

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Los Angeles Chargers Player Prop Picks: Attempts, Attempts, and More Attempts

The Cincinnati Bengals are hosting the Los Angeles Chargers in another big-time AFC showdown in Week 13. After huge wins over the Raiders and Steelers, the Bengals have a tough in-conference opponent yet again this week, while the Chargers can say the same after going 1-1 against the Steelers and Broncos in their last two games.

This Week 13 matchup is headlined by a duel between two of the NFL’s best young quarterbacks: Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow. There is some spectacular value on these guys’ betting lines for this contest, so let’s jump in! 

Click Here For Bengals vs. Chargers Odds

Justin Herbert Over 37.5 Pass Attempts (-125)

Line Available at DraftKings at Time of Publishing

After throwing a rookie record 31 touchdown passes last season, Justin Herbert is on pace for 37 touchdowns in his sophomore campaign. Herbert is one of the best young passers we’ve seen in recent memory, and the Chargers have made his arm talent their offensive identity.

Herbert has attempted at least 38 passes in 9 of his 11 games this season. His only two games where he didn’t reach this mark came against the Patriots and Vikings, and both teams allow fewer pass attempts than the league average. Last season’s rookie of the year is averaging 39.8 attempts per game after throwing 39.7 times per game as a rookie last season. That puts him at third in the NFL behind only - surprisingly enough - Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes.

The Chargers have the 2nd highest Pass Rate (65%) in the NFL and the 3rd highest Pass Rate (60%) when they’re tied or leading in games this season. In other words, the team’s offensive philosophy doesn’t shift regardless of the game script: they want to rely on Herbert’s arm at all times, no matter the situation.

The Bengals present quite the compelling matchup for this prop, as opponents air the ball out plenty against Cincinnati. Opponents average 37.9 attempts per game against the Bengals this season, good for the 6th most in the league. The Bengals also give up the 3rd fewest rush attempts per game and have the NFL’s 5th best rushing defense by expected points contributed. So, we have a Chargers offense that doesn’t want to run the ball and a Bengals defense that creates nightmares for opponents that try to run the ball on them. That sounds pretty good to me.

Cincinnati has allowed opponents to reach the over on this prop in 5 of the team’s last seven games, giving up 37.3 attempts per game over this stretch. If Jared Goff and Ben Roethlisberger are throwing 40+ times against this defense, I think we can expect Herbert to do the same. 

Joe Burrow Under 34.5 Pass Attempts (-125)

Line Available at DraftKings at Time of Publishing

The Bengals’ offense is surging right now, but it’s not because of Joe Burrow. The Bengals have the 9th lowest Pass Rate in the NFL this season, and that number is decreasing by the week. Joe Mixon is emerging as a superstar running back, and Cincy is feeding him the ball as such. Mixon is averaging 29 carries and 144 rushing yards per game over the last two weeks, while Burrow has thrown just 26.5 times per game.

This under has hit in 8/11 games for Burrow, who’s averaging just 30.8 pass attempts per game. This line feels a few attempts too high, especially in a matchup that heavily favors Cincinnati’s ground game. The Chargers have the NFL’s single worst rush defense and give up 31.2 pass attempts per game, the 4th fewest in the NFL.

The Broncos threw just 25 passes in their commanding victory over Los Angeles last week. The Chargers have been thrown on 35+ times in just 4 of their 11 games this season. And, in the Chargers’ five losses, opponents are throwing just 30.2 times per game, while opponents throw on LA 32 times per game in the Chargers’ wins.

With the Bengals coming in as 3-point favorites, expect them to continue to lean on Joe Mixon and the ground game. Burrow’s play has been inconsistent and shaky at times, and I’d be surprised to see him throw over 35 times in this contest.

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