Carolina Panthers vs Miami Dolphins Player Prop Picks: The Safe Bet
Carolina Panthers vs Miami Dolphins Player Prop Picks: The Safe Bet
We have two teams with losing records duking it out here. The Panthers are trying to make it back to .500 while the Dolphins are riding a 3 game win streak but still well below a winning record. I think we found a nice bet here in what would otherwise be a boring game to watch.
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Mike Gesicki 3+ receptions/40+ yards (-120 @ DK)
I know what the people want to know right away. You want to know the hit rate. I’ll be nice for this one and won’t make you wait. Gesicki has hit this prop in 9 of his last 10. Gesicki has been very consistent outside of the shutout week vs Baltimore. In his last 10 games, he is averaging 57.9 yards per game and 4.9 receptions. We are getting both a 2 reception discount and 18 yard discount here.
The Panthers rank well vs defending TE’s but its important to give those stats context. On first glance, you might be scared away but if you go through the game logs week by week they have been playing multiple teams that don't integrate the tight end into their pass attack. In the last 6 weeks, we have seen Tyler Conklin, Zach Ertz, and Evan Engram all hit this prop and it’s arguable that Gesicki is more talented than all 3 at this point in time.
I’m a believer in trusting talent when the numbers make sense. We all know Gesicki is a top recieving TE and these numbers we’re getting just feel too low. I said this in my last article but any prop that hits 9/10 times at good odds is worth betting. The spread for this game is close so I don't see any game scripts where Miami go up big and start running the football aggressively. This bet should have legs in all 4 quarters but hopefully cashes for us before then.
Stephen Gilmore will more than likely be battling with Jaylen Waddle so Tua might need to look other places to move down the field. Gesicki is the #2 option typically behind Waddle but if Jaylen is getting clamped we may see a surplus of Gesicki in this one. The weather will be nice for passing and i expect Miami to take advantage. I personally have Carolina winning this game because of the dynamic Cam Newton brings to the offense and the return of Christian McCaffrey. If that is the case we will likely see Tua throw the ball 35+ times which gives us a great opportunity to hit this one.
Carolina Panthers vs Miami Dolphins Pick
- Mike Gesicki 3+ receptions/40+ yards (-120 @ DK)