Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Player Prop Picks: Getting Value With Najee Harris

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Player Prop Picks: Getting Value With Najee Harris

The Cincinnati Bengals are hosting the division-rival Pittsburgh Steelers in an immensely impactful Week 12 matchup this Sunday. These teams hate each other, as we’ve seen from their heated battles in years past, and that sets the perfect stage for a game that will probably decide who qualifies for the playoffs and who does not.

For this Week 12 matchup, I’ll be diving into two of my favorite player props that are focused on some of the NFL’s bright, young stars. Let’s ride!

Click here for complete Bengals vs. Steelers betting odds

Najee Harris Over 4.5 Receptions (+130)

Najee Harris was a much-maligned first-round pick by the Pittsburgh Steelers back in April’s NFL Draft. But, he has unquestionably proved the doubters wrong through the first 10 games of his career.

Najee’s 49 receptions and 62 targets each rank second among all running backs this season. And, the volume he’s been able to handle has been wildly impressive. He leads the NFL with 237 touches this season (23.7 per game) and has the highest snap share of any back, by a wide margin. Harris has handled an unthinkable 85% of Pittsburgh’s offensive snaps, while only two other backs in the entire league are clearing the 70% mark. This incredible workload should keep the star RB plenty involved on passing downs.

Harris is averaging 4.9 receptions per game and has at least five catches in five of his 10 games. Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has struggled this season and has shown his age on a weekly basis. And, a product of this has been his proclivity for check-downs and short passes. Roethlisberger’s 6.8-yard average depth of target ranks 28th out of 29 quarterbacks that have thrown at least 200 passes this season. Roethlisberger’s declining arm strength becomes increasingly prevalent when the Steelers fall behind.

Harris has at least 5 catches in all four of Pittsburgh’s losses this season. And, with the Bengals coming in as 3.5-point favorites, the game script may very well work in our favor. However, this matchup isn’t only a great one because the Bengals are favored. In fact, the Bengals give up more receptions to running backs than team in the NFL.

Cincinnati’s 7.6 receptions allowed to running backs per game is the highest mark by any defense in the NFL this season, as is their league-leading 9.9 running back targets per game. Here are some noteworthy running back performances in the receiving game vs. Cincy this season:

• Josh Jacobs, Week 11: 7 targets, 5 receptions
• Michael Carter, Week 8: 14 targets, 9 receptions
• Ty Johnson, Week 8: 6 targets, 5 receptions
• D’Andre Swift, Week 6: 7 targets, 5 receptions
• AJ Dillon, Week 5: 4 targets, 4 receptions
• Aaron Jones, Week 5: 5 targets, 4 receptions
• Najee Harris, Week 3: 19 targets, 14 receptions
• Dalvin Cook, Week 1: 7 targets, 6 receptions

As shown above, there is plenty of room for opposing backs to see a ton of work out of the backfield against this defense. Najee Harris’ 14 catches against the Bengals in their last meeting remain the most receptions by any player in any game this season! The +130 odds on this bet are a terrific value, and if Pittsburgh ever falls behind, we should have an easy win on our hands.