NBA Finals Player Props: Will Jimmy Butler Show Up in Game 5 (6/12)
NBA Finals Player Props: Will Jimmy Butler Show Up in Game 5 (6/12)
The Denver Nuggets have an excellent opportunity to bring home their first NBA title in front of their home crowd tonight. They're 9-point favorites over the Miami Heat in Game 5 and should be able to take care of business this evening.
Denver has had an answer for everything Miami has thrown at them. It feels like the Heat will need a monster Jimmy Butler performance to extend this series, but that doesn't feel incredibly likely.
Let's jump into tonight's picks!
NBA Finals Player Props - Monday, June 12
Jimmy Butler Under 27.5 Points -120 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick.
Jimmy Butler has only reached the over on this prop once in four games this series. And he did it with exactly 28 points in Game 3. Aaron Gordon has been masterful defensively, holding Jimmy to 21.8 points per game. Butler has shot just 44.6% from the field and is only attempting 5.0 free throws per game in these Finals, a big step down from his 48.3 FG% and 9.1 FTA per game through his first three playoff series.
In fact, since the start of the second round, Jimmy Buckets hasn't been the same. He's faced tougher defenses and has played through an ankle injury that seems to be catching up with him. He's scored fewer than 30 points in 15 of his last 16 games, averaging 23.9 PPG on 43.0 FG% during this stretch.
Jimmy has also performed worse on the road over these last three rounds. He's posting just 22.8 PPG on the road, compared to 25.1 PPG at home. Plus, Miami being +300 underdogs tonight works in our favor as well. If we look at Butler's performance in losses this postseason, this under is 7-for-9, while he's averaging only 22.0 PPG.
The Miami star has also gone under this mark in five of seven games against the Nuggets over the last two seasons. Even if he plays around 45 minutes in a gigantic elimination game for the Heat, we still have an edge. Jimmy has scored just 26.1 PTS per 45 minutes in these games versus Denver and 26.5 PTS per 45 minutes since Round 2. A huge Denver win would certainly work in our favor, but this play can still hit for us in a close game, too.