Sports Betting Picks Today: Monday's Best +EV Betting Picks
Sports Betting Picks Today: Monday’s Best +EV Betting Picks
Welcome back to the best positive EV picks for Monday, June 17th. Each day, we will be providing the best value bets from our AI powered model to determine where the most profit lies on player props from NBA, NHL, MLB, WNBA, and others.
The Expected Value shows what our predictive tech assumes the odds should be versus what the bookies are offering, highlighting the best available selections. +EV means profit, -EV means loss over time. Higher EV = better bet value.
Monday’s Best +EV Betting Picks and Predictions
1. Josh Green Over 6.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-125) Click here to see which Sportsbook has the best odds
- AI Projection: 9.5
- Cover: 76%
- Hit Rate: 10/15
- +EV: 36%
The Dallas Mavericks will try to stay alive against the Boston Celtics in Game 5 of the NBA Finals. However, their chances aren't looking too good as a nearly 7-point road underdog. Josh Green will attempt to step up in a supporting role for the Mavs tonight, and has gotten good minutes in this finals series. He's averaging about 19 minutes out on the floor, and has been able to score at least once in every game, while adding several rebounds and a few assists.
In Game 4, he stacked up five boards with an assist in addition to his scoring. While he doesn't shoot much, he's gotten to the line several times, and has been a solid sub for the tired Mavs' stars. Add in the fact that this game could easily be a blowout on the Celtics' floor, Green will see even more garbage-time minutes at the end of the game. Regardless of the scenario, he can hit this line in a variety of ways. After soaring over at eight and nine in the last two games, let's keep rolling with Green to hit in this 36% positive EV play that has cashed in 10 of the last 15 games through the playoffs.
— Monday, June 17th Dallas Mavericks @ Boston Celtics
2. Yusei Kikuchi Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+100) Click here to see which Sportsbook has the best odds
- AI Projection: 5.6
- Cover: 66%
- Hit Rate: 10/15
- +EV: 32%
The Boston Red Sox will head to Toronto on Monday night for yet another AL East series after a weekend against the Yankees. The Sox bats are heating up, after finishing strong in a blowout win over the Yanks last night to take the series. They have 17 runs in their last two games, and are heating up at the right time in these divisional matchups.
Going against Yusei Kikuchi and the Jays tonight, they will try to knock the veteran out early with more offense. Kikuchi has gone under the 6.5 strikeout line in 10 of his last 15 games, including five in a row. We get a nice price at even odds here tonight because the Sox bats have a generally high strikeout rate on the season, however they have been getting shut down less as of late.
Boston only struck out three times last night against Marcus Stroman through five innings, and their lineup also has a lower 21% strikeout rate against Kikuchi, matched up with a profitable .297 lifetime batting average. Look for the Sox to stay hot at the dish tonight and keep the offense rolling on the road, scoring more runs and avoiding strikeouts from Kikuchi in this +32% positive EV pick.
3. Addison Barger Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI's (+140) Click here to see which Sportsbook has the best odds
- AI Projection: 3
- Cover: 75%
- Hit Rate: 2/2
- +EV: 80%
Staying in the Red Sox vs. Blue Jays game, we'll now head to the Toronto bats to find another strong positive EV pick. Our Q4 predictive metrics have detected Addison Barger as one of the hottest props for Monday, and his numbers may be explosive tonight. The youngster was just called up from Triple-A Buffalo, and he's already making a splash in this Jays lineup.
Barger will be going against Red Sox pitcher Nick Pivetta, who was just blown up in his last start against the Phillies, and will be shaky on the mound early. Facing a hitter he's never seen before will not help him settle in. The lefty has batted seventh since getting called up, and he already has three hits, two RBI's, and a run scored in just two games over the weekend.
Our metrics project him at over three Hits + Runs + RBI's well over his plus-money line of 1.5. We're going to stick with the hot bat here as he continues to help propel the Blue Jays offense after shaking up the lineup. While his over 0.5 singles line is another strong bet at +120, adding in the extra stats here can help boost his chances of covering the line.
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Peter is a sports writer focused on coverage and analysis of college football and basketball, as well as the NFL and other major sports. A graduate of the University of Missouri School of Journalism, he has been writing sports articles for over 8 years.
After working for ClutchPoints, Peter joined OddsChecker in 2023. He is a New York sports superfan and is fluent in the sports betting industry.