NBA Finals Props: How To Play Jimmy Butler Props in Game 4 (6/9)
NBA Finals Props: How To Play Jimmy Butler Props in Game 4 (6/9)
The Denver Nuggets, led by Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, turned in a masterful Game 3 performance on Wednesday night. The Joker was too much for the Miami Heat to handle as Denver cruised to a 15-point win. Now, they enter Game 4 as 3.5-point favorites.
As for the Heat, Jimmy Butler hasn't played up to the level we've expected from "Playoff Jimmy" over the last eight weeks. We'll be jumping on a player prop for the Miami superstar as his team tries to tie the series at two games apiece.
Let's jump into some early Friday night picks!
NBA Finals Player Props - Friday, June 9
Jimmy Butler Under 1.5 Steals -120  is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
Sure, steals can be kind of random. Who cares? Jimmy Butler has just one steal in three games during the 2023 NBA Finals. This under has cashed in five of his last seven games, and I'm playing it yet again in Friday's Game 4.
Although steals can be accumulated randomly in NBA games, that's not quite the case against the Denver Nuggets. Denver takes care of the ball incredibly well - they've allowed just 5.5 opponent steals per game this postseason, which has been just as good as Philadelphia and Miami's ball control to round out the top three. Plus, this series between the Nuggets and the Heat has been one of the slowest-paced NBA playoff series this year.
These squads are playing at a snail's pace of just 89 possessions per 48 minutes through three contests. To put that into perspective, Denver played at a pace of 98.1 possessions per 48 in the regular season, while Miami turned in a 96.3 pace. We can expect another slow game with just 89-90 possessions in Game 4, which should offer fewer opportunities for Jimmy Butler to collect two steals.
In nine postseason games featuring fewer than 92.5 possessions, Jimmy has failed to collect two steals in six of nine games. On the season as a whole, this has cashed in 18 of 26 games with a pace of 92 possessions or fewer. This under is also 5-for-6 in Jimmy's matchups versus Denver over the last two seasons. He's been matched up against Jamal Murray far more over the last two games, which limits his ability to play the passing lanes against the Nuggets' offense. There aren't going to be many opportunities for Jimmy to luck into a pair of steals in Game 4, so I'm playing the under on this prop.