NBA Playoff Picks, Predictions: 3 Series Props to Target for the 2023 NBA Finals
NBA Playoff Picks, Predictions: 3 Series Props to Target for the 2023 NBA Finals
The Conference Finals have finally concluded. After the Boston Celtics prolonged the Eastern Conference Finals for an extra week, we can confirm our Finals matchup.
The Denver Nuggets will host the Miami Heat on Thursday evening at 8:30 PM ET. Miami is searching for its fourth title in franchise history, while the Nuggets are making their very first NBA Finals appearance.
Let's jump into today's picks for the Finals!
NBA Finals Futures
Denver Nuggets Series Spread -1.5 -135 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
The Denver Nuggets are going to be the best-coached team the Miami Heat have faced in the 2023 NBA Playoffs. Whether you think they're more talented than the Milwaukee Bucks or Boston Celtics is debatable (I would probably take the Nuggets). However, this will likely be the first series where Erik Spoelstra's wizardry won't flat-out embarrass his opponent's coaching staff for an entire series. Michael Malone has done a tremendous job with this group, as they went on a tear through the West and match up quite well with the Heat.
Since 1990, we have seen 33 NBA Finals series play out. Just five of them went to seven games. That's a 28 out of 33 (85%) hit rate on the winning team covering a 1.5-game series spread in the NBA Finals. So, history is certainly on our side here.
How can Denver cover the 1.5-game series spread? If they go 3-0 at home, that makes things easy. Then, they just need to go 1-2 on the road (at worst), and they'll have the series wrapped up in five or six games. But if Denver drops a home game, they can still cover for us by going 2-1 in Miami. The Nuggets are big favorites to win the series, and they probably won't need seven games to do it, so I love this spot for Denver.
Aaron Gordon Over 11.7 Points Per Game -115 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
This bet is in the "PPG" section under the "NBA Finals" tab on DraftKings.
This is an awesome line since we don't even need Gordon to have that great of a series to score 12 points per game in the Finals comfortably. He's averaged 13.0 points in 35.6 minutes per game this postseason, and the massive playing time should continue to be there for Anthony Gordon.
In Denver's three playoff series so far, he's posted 13.4, 12.8, and 12.8 PPG. Since being traded to the Nuggets just over two years ago, Gordon has also squared off against the Heat four times. He found his way into double-digits in all four games, averaging 14.3 PPG in 33.5 minutes. The Denver forward has scored at least 12.5 PPG in five of his six series with the team, and he should be able to do it once more in these Finals.
Jimmy Butler Under 27.8 Points Per Game -115 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
This play may make you feel a little bit uncomfortable. But, if you remove the Michael Jordan comparisons and simply look at the recent track record for Jimmy "Playoff Jimmy" Butler, you'll understand how difficult it is to score close to 30 points per game for an entire series.
Sure, Jimmy is scoring 28.5 PPG this postseason. But that's buoyed by his unbelievable performance against Milwaukee in Round 1 when the Bucks refused to make any adjustments on Butler. And, maybe more importantly, Jimmy has been playing on an ankle that is clearly not 100% healthy for his last 11 games.
In six games before his ankle injury against the New York Knicks, he averaged 35.5 PPG on 58.5% FG. In 11 games since, he's averaging 24.6 PPG on 41.9% FG. Jimmy's averaging 26.7 points per 40 minutes in three games against the Nuggets since last season. And this has cashed in almost all of Butler's playoff series on the Heat. This prop is four of six over the last two seasons and four of four in his Conference Finals and Finals series, going back to the bubble.