NBA Playoffs Props Tonight: Player Props to Target for Celtics vs. Heat Game 1 (5/17)
NBA Playoffs Props Tonight: Player Props to Target for Celtics vs. Heat Game 1 (5/17)
The Los Angeles Lakers and the Denver Nuggets got the conference finals started with an absolute classic game last night. Tonight, we're heading East for Game 1 in Boston, Massachusetts, tipping off at 8:30 PM ET.
The Heat are facing the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals for the third time in four years. Despite Boston being heavily favored over Miami, we can't count out one of the most consistently competitive teams in basketball.
Let's jump into today's picks!
Wednesday, May 17 NBA Props
Jayson Tatum Over 4.5 Assists -140 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbooks have the best odds
Jayson Tatum is fresh off of the most extraordinary Game 7 performance in league history. So, you better believe Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra will have his guys selling out to stop Tatum in Game 1 tonight. Whether Miami is throwing tough matchups at Tatum or sending double teams his way, I imagine they try to force him off the ball as much as possible.
Tatum has hit this over in 5 straight games entering tonight's action. And, with another 40+ minutes likely ahead of him, he should have plenty of opportunities to rack up five assists against Miami. JT has finished with 5+ assists in 10 of his 13 playoff games this season and in 17 of 24 games last postseason. Overall, he's posted 5.8 APG over Boston's last two playoff runs.
In 13 games where Tatum has seen at least 30 minutes against Miami over the last two seasons, he's cashed this over in 8 of 13, averaging 5.2 APG. He had 4+ assists in every playoff game against Miami last season and finished with 5+ in five of seven games. He's reached the five-assist mark in 21 of his last 27 games, seeing 36+ minutes, and he should be relied upon as a playmaker this evening.
Heat/Celtics Same Game Parlay -125 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbooks have the best odds
Leg 1: Miami Heat Alt-Spread +14.5
Leg 2: Kyle Lowry 2+ Assists
Leg 3: Marcus Smart 2+ Rebounds
I love Miami's chances of keeping this game competitive tonight. They're 8-point underdogs on the regular game spread, and I'm not opposed to playing that straight, either. But I'm an even bigger fan of this SGP we cooked up for Game 1.
We just need the Heat to keep this thing within 15 points. The coaching discrepancy between Spoelstra and rookie HC Joe Mazzulla is massive, and the Heat have done incredibly well in Game 1's over the last few seasons. Since 2020, they're 8-2 in 10 series openers, sporting a +75 point differential in these games. They beat Milwaukee and New York on the road to kick off their first two series, and a win in Boston is not out of the question tonight.
As for Kyle Lowry, he's reached this mark in every single one of his 22 games off the bench this season, averaging 4.5 APG. He should continue to see anywhere between 24-30 minutes per game and will likely remain in Miami's closing lineup. Meanwhile, Marcus Smart has at least three rebounds in every single one of his games this postseason. We're only asking for two, and he should be locked into around 40 minutes of action himself.