NBA Playoff Picks, Predictions: 3 Series Props to Target for Round 1
NBA Playoff Picks, Predictions: 3 Series Props to Target for Round 1
We're only 48 hours from the first round of the 2023 NBA Playoffs. With no play-in games today, it's only right we get rolling with some futures for Round 1.
Let's jump into today's picks for Round 1!
Round 1 NBA Playoffs Futures
Los Angeles Lakers Series Winner (+120) (Bet $100 to collect $220) Best odds available at DraftKings; click here to bet
The Los Angeles Lakers can go toe to toe with any team in the Western Conference. The only question about this team surrounds their inability to stay healthy. In fact, LeBron James and Anthony Davis are yet to face the Memphis Grizzlies together this season. Since 2021, they're 4-1 against Memphis when active together, and as long as they stay on the court for the next two weeks, they should be able to rip off four wins.
The Lakers have been one of the league's best teams since re-arranging their roster at the trade deadline. They're 17-7 since the all-star break, tied with the Milwaukee Bucks for the best record in the league. They're also 9-2 with LeBron and AD during this stretch.
Since the break, LA has been the NBA's third-ranked defense and 15th-ranked offense. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies have had the league's 11th-best offense and 11th-best defense during this stretch. The Lakers are the better road team in this series, and their half-court offense is better suited for the postseason. As long as they can slow down Ja Morant just enough, they should move on to Round 2.
New York Knicks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Over 5.5 Total Games (-150) (Bet $150 to collect $250) Best odds available at BetMGM; click here to bet
If this series goes six or seven, we cash this bet. That sounds pretty good to me; we just can't have one of these two squads get blown out. We have history on our side for this spot, too. Since 2016, we've seen 14 matchups between four and five seeds. Ten of them have gone to at least six games (with an average of 5.9 games per series).
Julius Randle is likely to miss the first game or two of this series due to a sprained ankle at the end of March. But Jalen Brunson proved last year that he could carry an offense in April. He scored 27.8 points per game in a 4-2 series victory over Donovan Mitchell's Jazz while leading the Mavericks to a 2-1 series lead in three games without Luka Doncic.
Cleveland may have a bit more talent on their roster, but the Knicks have more postseason experience, as Darius Garland and Evan Mobley are yet to make their NBA Playoff debuts. New York won the season series 3-1, so look for Brunson and the rest of Tom Thibodeau's group to steal one of the first two games in Cleveland and make this a series.
Boston Celtics Series Spread -2.5 (-138) (Bet $138 to collect $238) Best odds available at FanDuel; click here to bet
The Boston Celtics had their wishes granted (one can assume) when the Atlanta Hawks moved past the Miami Heat on Tuesday night. Miami took the C's to seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals last season, so it's certainly fair to assume that a rematch against Jimmy Butler wouldn't have been their first choice.
Boston finished 16 wins ahead of Atlanta this season, and win-differential has been an excellent predictor of series results. Over the last five NBA postseasons, 11 first-round series have featured teams separated by at least 12 regular-season wins. The higher seeds are 9-2 against the series spread of 2.5 games, as only two of these matchups went to six games.
The Celtics have won five straight games against Atlanta. Plus, they swept Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving in Round 1 last April. Look for the reigning Eastern Conference champs to take care of business.