NBA Props for Today: 4 Props to Target for Hawks vs. Heat (4/11)
NBA Props for Today: 4 Props to Target for Hawks vs. Heat (4/11)
Postseason basketball is here. We're locked and loaded for the Eastern Conference Play-In matchup between the seventh-seed Miami Heat and eighth-seed Atlanta Hawks, which should be must-watch television.
This contest tips off at 7:30 PM ET, and we have plenty of awesome angles on these familiar foes.
Let's jump into today's picks!
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Tuesday, April 11 NBA Props
Trae Young Under 25.5 Points (-120) (Bet $120 to collect $220) Best odds available at FanDuel; click here to bet
This is a line I'd feel comfortable playing down to 23.5 points. The Miami Heat, led by head coach Erik Spoelstra, defend Trae Young as well as any team in basketball. When these teams squared off in the postseason last April, Trae failed to surpass the 25-point mark in all five games, averaging 15.4 points per game.
Over the last three seasons, Young has faced the Heat 15 times. He's scored 25 or fewer in 13 of these 15 games, averaging 19.4 PPG. And he failed to score more than 25 points in all four games against Miami this season (19.8 PPG).
Miami's trapping defense makes life extraordinarily difficult for Trae and forces the ball out of his hands early in possessions. The Heat are best against opposing guards, as they allowed the fourth fewest PPG to point guards this season and the fifth-fewest over their last 30 games.
Plus, they play at an incredibly slow pace (second-slowest in the NBA). This will slow even more now that we're playing postseason basketball, which means fewer possessions for Trae. I'd be shocked if the two-time all-star guard has a huge game tonight.
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Trae Young Under 29.5 Points + Heat ML (-125) (Bet $125 to collect $225) Best odds available at FanDuel; click here to bet
I'm doubling down on fading Trae Young and backing the Miami Heat tonight. Trae scored just 23.9 PPG against teams that ranked bottom 10 in Pace this season. He scored 30+ points in just 7 of these 27 games. And this parlay has cashed in 10 of Trae's 15 games against the Heat since 2021.
Atlanta is 4-11 against Miami over the last three seasons, and Trae has topped the 30-point mark just once in this sample. The Heat will play the 6'1" Young physically and will throw a lot of size at him with some mix of Gabe Vincent, Caleb Martin, Jimmy Butler, and Victor Oladipo as his primary defenders tonight. He should see multiple bodies on every drive and every pick-and-roll, and that's led to 6.0 turnovers per game against the Heat since 2021.
Atlanta is just 3-6 on the road under Quin Snyder, with two of those wins coming against the Washington Wizards. They've lost seven straight games in Miami, and I'm expecting that streak to extend to eight games tonight.
Tyler Herro Under 21.5 Points (-125) (Bet $125 to collect $225) Best odds available at BetMGM; click here to bet
I'd happily play this down to 20.5 points. In a do-or-die game, I'm looking for the Heat to rely on Jimmy Butler even more. The Hawks also offer a nice matchup for Bam Adebayo, so Herro feels like a more distant third option for Miami tonight than he has been this season.
He's played at least 30 minutes in 10 meetings with Atlanta since last season. He's remained under this line in eight of these 10 games, averaging 17.4 PPG. In four games against the Hawks this season, he failed to top the 20-point mark, posting 13, 20, 15, and 11 points (14.8 PPG). And, in three games where he played 30+ minutes during last year's playoff series against Atlanta, he remained under this line in two of the three games.
He scored just 20.1 PPG in 34.9 minutes per game this season. It's hard to imagine Herro seeing close to 40 minutes in this one, given how much he handicaps Miami's perimeter defense. However, he's yet to be a proven postseason performer. Herro's remained under this line in 14 of 17 career playoff games seeing 32+ minutes (averaging just 17.4 PPG). I love the value in a Herro fade with this inflated line tonight.
De'Andre Hunter 15+ Points (-110) (Bet $110 to collect $210) Best odds available at FanDuel; click here to bet
With the Miami Heat likely to key in on Trae Young tonight, there could be additional opportunities available for Atlanta's role players. De'Andre Hunter has stepped up big against Miami in recent matchups, and he's in a great spot to score against a team that bleeds catch-and-shoot threes.
The Virginia product has scored 13+ points in 12 of 13 games against the Heat since 2021, averaging 16.9 PPG. He also dropped 14+ points in all four meetings with Miami this season and in all five games during their first-round playoff series last year.
Hunter has also played well lately, scoring 12+ points in 14 of his last 15 games. He hasn't seen a usage dropoff since Atlanta's coaching change, posting similar scoring numbers under Quin Snyder as he did before Snyder arrived. His shooting and defense should keep him on the floor tonight, as Atlanta may shorten its rotation. The 6-foot-8 forward has cashed this over in 30 of 46 games seeing 30+ minutes this season (16.8 PPG), with 13+ in 37 of these 46 games.
Hunter's seen more consistent usage and playing time than both Saddiq Bey and Bogdan Bogdanovic down the stretch. He'll see a good mix of Tyler Herro and Max Strus, which should lead to some easy looks attacking closeouts as a result of the pressure Miami will put on Trae Young.
Heat vs. Hawks Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
- Date: Tuesday, April 11, 2023
- Game Time: 7:30 pm ET
- Where to Watch: TNT