Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics Same Game Parlay: Will Jaylen Brown and Jrue Holiday Show Up in Game 4?
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics Same Game Parlay: Will Jaylen Brown and Jrue Holiday Show Up in Game 4?
The Milwaukee Bucks and the Boston Celtics are squaring off for the fourth installment of their Round 2 battle this evening. After a flurry of missed layups by the Celts and the end of Game 3, Milwaukee took a 2-1 series lead and is aiming to bury Boston tonight. As for the Celtics, Jayson Tatum struggled on Saturday afternoon, and it would be a massive surprise if the 24-year-old superstar can't get it going again today. And, this may lead to fewer looks for Jaylen Brown. Meanwhile, the Bucks have been heavily leaning on Giannis Antetkounmpo and Jrue Holiday, which could potentially set the Bucks' guard up for another big game.
There's some fantastic value on a big same game parlay including Jaylen Brown and Jrue Holiday for today. We're going to be betting against Jaylen and counting on Jrue, with some fantastic hit rates backing up each of the legs.
Bucks vs. Celtics Game 4 Start Time and Where to Watch
Date:Â May 9, 2022
When:Â 7:30 PM ET
Where to Watch:Â TNT
Click Here for Bucks vs Celtics Game 4 Odds
Bucks vs Celtics Game 4 Line Movement
Milwaukee Bucks vs Boston Celtics Same-Game Parlay (-131)Â (Bet $131 to win $100)
*Odds Available at FanDuel at Time of Publishing*
Leg 1: Jaylen Brown Under 30.5 Points
Leg 2: Jaylen Brown Under 6.5 Assists
Jaylen Brown finished with fewer than 30.5 points and 6.5 assists in 52 of 66 games this regular season. He's also hit in all seven of his postseason games. Even when playing 36+ minutes, Brown has hit in 20 of 25 games this season. Dating back to the bubble in 2020, Brown has also hit in 23 of his 24 games, averaging 22.0 PPG and 2.9 APG.
The Cal product has played some of the best basketball of his career over his last two games. Brown followed up a disastrous Game 1 with back-to-back high-level performances, notching 30 points and 27 points in Games 2 and 3, respectively. However, Brown still cashed the under on both of these legs each game this series. He's due for some regression both in the free-throw attempt department and the three-point shooting department, which will likely lead to a lower scoring output in Game 4 tonight.
Furthermore, the one-time all-star is simply not seeing enough assist opportunities to have much of a chance of racking up 7+ assists. He's averaging 8.1 potential assists per game in the postseason and just 7.0 per game in this series. Dating back to the regular season, he only averaged 7.5 potential assists per 40 minutes. It's highly unlikely the Celts shoot seven for eight on his feeds this evening.
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Leg 3: Jrue Holiday 15+ Points
Leg 4: Jrue Holiday 1+ Threes Made
Milwaukee's reliance on Jrue Holiday lately has been incredible. Outside of Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks severely lack shot creation in Khris Middleton's absence. Thanks to an increase in playing time and Middleton's absence, Holiday can be expected to put up 20 shots each and every game.
The former Pelicans guard saw his Usage Rate jump from 22.6% with Middleton active to 29.4% when he sits. And, Head Coach Mike Budenholzer tends to play Holiday significantly more once the postseason rolls around. This has led to 39.0 postseason minutes per game for Jrue over the last two seasons -- a massive increase from his 32.7 MPG in regular-season play.
Holiday finished with 15+ Points and 1+ Threes in 24 of 27 games when seeing at least 36 minutes this season. And, he had 15+ and a three in 13 of 15 games when seeing at least 36 minutes in the 2020-21 season. He should see around 40 minutes of action today, and the Bucks will need plenty of scoring out of him with Middleton still on the shelf.
Jrue has been a Celtics killer since he joined the Bucks, too. He has 17+ Points and at least one three in 9 of 10 games against Boston since last season. He's averaging 20.7 PPG across these games and is in a great spot to get the job done against Boston again in Game 4.
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