Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction: Will Reds' Bats Get to Paul Skenes, Pirates Early?
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction: Will Reds' Bats Get to Paul Skenes, Pirates Early?
If you’ve gone on social media over the last 24 hours or so, you’ll notice that everyone has the same idea for Monday’s MLB State. Paul Skenes is the most popular player prop of the day and everyone seems to think he’s going to shut down the Reds. I’ve got some different thoughts for how this game is going to play out…
Reds VS. Pirates DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: June 17, 2024
- Start Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: FS1
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction
Paul Skenes is coming off an electric start against the Cardinals, where he allowed zero runs and racked up eight strikeouts. The public seems to think he’s going to follow up that performance with another gem on Monday, but I beg to differ. With the total on the rise, I’m expecting more runs in this game than everyone’s predicting.
The Reds might’ve lost the series against the Brewers, but their offense did their job. They scored four or more runs in two of the three games, and I feel confident that their young lineup won’t struggle against Skenes’ velocity on Monday. I’m banking on the Reds bats to surprise everyone in this game, putting up some runs early-on in this contest. Although Skenes has shown he’s got dominant stuff to be an elite starter in this league, there will still be some growing pains in his rookie season along the way. Considering the entire public is backing him to give up less than 1.5 runs on Monday, I feel good backing the opposing angle.
The Reds won’t be the only team scoring runs in this game. The Pirates’ bats have woken up recently, and they will be facing a starter tonight making his first start of the season. I’m not expecting the Pirates bate to cool off in Monday’s series opener, especially against a young pitcher making his first start of the season on the road. I’m willing to bet we see more runs early on from both teams that the public expects in Monday’s series opener.
Instead of backing the full game over, let’s target the sharp F5 over. I’ve watched it move from o/u 4 to o/u 4.5 on almost every book, a great sign considering more bets and handle are currently backing the under. Let’s fade these two young starting pitchers, and eliminate any chance of the bullpens locking in for the later innings. Fade the public, and isolate the F5 total; I’ll meet you at the cash counter after Skenes gives up four runs himself.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction
CIN/PIT F5 o4 (-130) CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SYSTEM PROJECTIONS - JUNE 17
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Article Author
Krabs is a contrarian bettor who isn’t afraid to fade the public or go against the grain. His betting style not only produces winners but has changed the way many think about the sports betting process. You’ll find Krabs betting on anything from the NFL (at a 60% clip in 2022) to the KBO (8-1-1 in 2022). You won’t find many handicappers with more college basketball knowledge or insight than Krabs. A native of the “DMV,” you can find his work @Krabs_Bets on Twitter, or on Behind the Lines, his daily sports betting show on twitch.