Best MLB Home Run Bets: Lock In This Expert's Best MLB Player Prop Bets for Friday
Best MLB Home Run Bets: Lock In This Expert's Best MLB Player Prop Bets for Friday
There are so many great targets for tonight's MLB home run market.
Ultimately, there are some really bad pitchers on the slate tonight, and I'm ready to attack them.
Here are three home run props to consider. Let's start the weekend off right!
May 17 Best MLB Home Run Props
Matt Olson to Hit a Home Run (+300) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
While Matt Olson hasn't had the season he had last year, he's still hitting an ISO of .158 against righties to begin the year.
That said, he's facing Matt Waldron of the Padres, who has allowed a .270 ISO and wOBA of .423 to his first 86 lefties.
In addition, Waldron has only struck out 19.8% of lefties and has induced just 31.6% of ground balls against lefties this season.
Olson has still minimized ground balls against righties to 32.9%. He's also hit 34.3% of line drives with 72.9% of hard contact, with a 15.7% barrel percentage. It's only a matter of time until Olson gets consistently hot at the plate against righties.
Joey Ortiz to Hit a Home Run (+830) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
I know Ortiz has only four home runs this season. But he's hit three against righties and is batting a .314 average with only 12 strikeouts in 70 at-bats against righties.
In 83 plate appearances, Ortiz has hit a .257 ISO and wOBA of .420 with 14.5% of strikeouts. He's also hit 25.4% of line drives to go along with a 47.5% hard contact rate.
On the other hand, he'll take on Hunter Brown, who has consistently been worse against righties to begin his MLB career.
Last season, Brown allowed a .224 ISO and wOBA of .365 to 368 righties. This year, he's given up a .169 ISO and wOBA of .452 to his first 68 righties.
So, let's take a long shot on Ortiz hitting a home run against Brown tonight.
Kerry Carpenter to Hit a Home Run (+500) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
The left-handed slugger, Kerry Carpenter, has smashed a .255 ISO and wOBA of .383 against his first 117 righties this season. Although his strikeouts are a bit high against righties, he's still hit 36.7% of fly balls with a 53.2% hard contact rate.
Beyond that, he's hit a 15.2% barrel percentage against righties.
Carpenter and the Tigers will take on Ryne Nelson of the Diamondbacks. He's a righty who has allowed a .241 ISO and wOBA of .325 to his first 58 lefties. On top of that, Nelson has only struck out lefties 13.8% of the time and has allowed 36.2% of fly balls to lefties.
Even last year, Nelson gave up a .237 ISO and wOBA of .380 and struck out only 14% of lefties. His struggles against lefties are a common theme. Let's take a chance with Carpenter tonight.
Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets Today
- Matt Olson to Hit a Home Run (+300) (Bet $100 to collect $400)
- Joey Ortiz to Hit a Home Run (+830) (Bet $100 to collect $930)
- Kerry Carpenter to Hit a Home Run (+500) (Bet $100 to collect $600)
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Article Author
Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.