Super Tuesday Odds, Predictions and Betting Data

Super Tuesday Odds, Predictions and Betting Data

Donald Trump will look to all but wrap up the 2024 Republican Primary race on Tuesday night with a major test across the board.

Trump has a chance to clean sweep all 15 state primaries, including the caucus vote in Utah and Alaska. He holds impressive -750 odds to win everything, leading to an 86% implied probability of a Super Tuesday shutout.

Assuming everything goes the way it is expected, Trump will hold an insurmountable lead to carry him to the Republican nomination this summer. However, Haley still has an outside shot to pick up a few states after winning the D.C. primary over the weekend. Let's take a look at the latest primary odds and probabilities for Super Tuesday.

Alabama Republican Primary Odds

Donald Trump is a heavy favorite in the state of Alabama, a place where he won easily in 2016 and 2020. The latest polling has him at 87% ahead of Super Tuesday, where he is expected to roll to yet another primary victory. This one shouldn't be close.

Alaska Republican Caucus Odds

Alaska will vote in their Republican Caucus on Super Tuesday, but there is not enough recent polling data to provide an accurate implied probability. There is no recent polling data to suggest where the odds stand, but similar to Utah, Alaska will use a caucus method with only registered Republicans allowed. Trump should have no problem winning Alaska with these heavily conservative registered voters, but there is not enough data to present the percentage.

Arkansas Republican Primary Odds

Arkansas will vote in their Republican Primary on Super Tuesday, but there is not enough recent polling data to provide an accurate implied probability. The most recent poll took place in August, placing Trump at a 58% chance with DeSantis trailing at 29%, who is obviously no longer in the race among many others. Trump should have no problem winning Arkansas, but there is not enough data to present the percentage.

California Republican Primary Odds

Trump has a 75% chance to take home victory in this blue state on Tuesday night, with Haley trailing back at a just 18% shot. California may be home to many moderates on the coast, but the rural inland areas are full of Trump supporters on the Republican side. Haley may have a tough time competing with them, although she does have a better overall chance here than in the southern states. Trump will never be able to win a place like California in a general election, but he should be able to pick up the primary win.

Colorado Republican Primary Odds

Colorado will vote in their Republican Primary on Super Tuesday, but there is not enough recent polling data to provide an accurate implied probability. It is unknown if Trump will win Colorado easily, but the national momentum among Republicans should carry him to another win out west. The results will be in from this blue state on Tuesday night, but there is not enough data to present the percentage at this time.

Maine Republican Primary Odds

Massachusetts Republican Primary Odds

Massachusetts is looking like Haley's best chance at an upset, both in the implied odds and the historical trends. Massachusetts is a notoriously blue state, and Trump did not win it in either general election year. He wasn't expected to do so, but it is still historically relevant, as he won the majority of the others on this list. Massachusetts is full of more moderate republicans, and many will be anti-Trump. As seen from the odds, he still has a 66% chance to win the state due to his dominating performance across the country so far, but it is Haley's best chance to steal one away on Super Tuesday at nearly 30%.

Minnesota Republican Primary Odds

Donald Trump is heavily favored in the Minnesota polls, despite not winning the state in the general election in 2016 or 2020. He had success in some of the other northern blue swing states the first time around with wins in Michigan and Wisconsin, but he was never able to gather Minnesota. Nonetheless, he is expected to maintain his advantage in the primary with a 79% chance to grab this one on Super Tuesday as support lacks for Haley.

North Carolina Republican Primary Odds

The North Carolina primary is Haley's second-best chance on this list after Massachusetts. However, it seems more unlikely as Trump won North Carolina in both general elections. There are a few blue states on here that he wasn't able to grab, but the Tar Heel state went the way of Trump both times by a slim margin. He has a 68% chance to win the North Carolina Republican primary on Tuesday night, a probability that has only increased in the new year.

Oklahoma Republican Primary Odds

Haley has a few chances to pick up a win on Super Tuesday, but it is not on the plains of Oklahoma. Trump has dominated this area and it is packed with his supporters. He is heavily favored with an over 88% chance to win, and it should be an early blowout.

Tennessee Republican Primary Odds

In another race that shouldn't be particularly close, Donald Trump is expected to roll in Tennessee. He picked up the state in both elections, and it has been red for a long time. Don't expect any crazy upset in the Volunteer state.

Texas Republican Primary Odds

Texas is another southern state that Trump should win handedly. There may be some moderates in the large city centers, but they usually do not outweigh the massive state as a whole. Texas stayed comfortably red in both of the last two elections, and Trump maintains a strong base, especially in the rural populations. He has about an 80% chance to take home the win here, so don't hold your breath for an upset.

Utah Republican Caucus Odds

Utah will vote in their Republican Caucus on Super Tuesday, but there is not enough recent polling data to provide an accurate implied probability. The most recent poll took place in January, placing Trump at a 49% chance with Haley trailing at 22%, but many other candidates were still in the race. Trump should have no problem winning Utah, but there is not enough data to present the percentage.

Vermont Republican Primary Odds

The Vermont Primary is also one of Haley's best chances at an upset. Recent polling placed her at a 31% chance on the implied odds. Similar to Massachusetts, this is a blue state that Trump never won, and is also full of moderates and libertarians. It may be small, but any victory can help Haley at this juncture, and she may have a shot up north.

Virginia Republican Primary Odds

Virginia is an interesting state in this primary race, and could see some action on Tuesday night. Trump had an 80% chance to win this state in recent weeks, but has recently dropped off to just 66% in the past few days. That could be due to news about the former president, or other developments out of the state. It is certainly something to watch, especially since Trump didn't win this battleground state in either election, but came close. Despite these changes, Haley still only has a 17% shot to pull the shocking upset.