2024 CHARLES SCHWAB CHALLENGE ODDS: BETTORS BACKING SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER AT COLONIAL
2024 CHARLES SCHWAB CHALLENGE ODDS: BETTORS BACKING SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER AT COLONIAL
Following Xander Schauffele's first major win at the PGA Championship on Sunday, the PGA Tour will depart from Valhalla Golf Club in favor of Colonial Country Club in Dallas, Texas. It's the site for the annual Charles Schwab Challenge, played on a par 70 course that just completed an extensive restoration effort overseen by Gil Hanse.
Last year, Emiliano Grillo beat Adam Schenk in a two-hole playoff, with 8-under-par good enough to qualify both golfers for the sudden-death playoff format. Scottie Scheffler finished one stroke back from Grillo and Schenk at Colonial in 2023.
Scheffler is fresh off of 6-under-par in the final round to record his tenth top-ten finish of the season. The World No. 1 endured a rollercoaster week at Valhalla, but now, he returns back to his native state, looking to bounce back with his fifth outright win of the year. It'd be his fifth win in the past seven events played, which includes his second major win at Augusta National during the 2024 Masters.
Bettors are hammering Scheffler to win the Charles Schwab Challenge this week, despite having significantly shorter odds than the rest of the field. PGA handicapper Matt MacKay is back to share his betting insights, plus the latest betting data available on the most popular golfers being wagered in the outright winner market ahead of Round 1 at the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge.
CHARLES SCHWAB CHALLENGE ODDS
| GOLFER | OUTRIGHT WINNER ODDS |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +280 |
| Collin Morikawa | +1400 |
| Jordan Spieth | +1800 |
| Max Homa | +2200 |
| Si Woo Kim | +3500 |
| Tony Finau | +3500 |
| Sungjae Im | +4000 |
| Adam Scott | +4000 |
| Min Woo Lee | +4000 |
| Sepp Straka | +4500 |
| Brian Harman | +4500 |
| Denny McCarthy | +5000 |
| Christian Bezuidenhout | +5000 |
| Tom Hoge | +5000 |
| Keith Mitchell | +5000 |
Outside of Scheffler, who is +280, every other golfer in this field is 14-1 or longer. This is not a Signature Event, but there are plenty of stars set to compete at Colonial.
Some notable names in the top of the outright winner market include Jordan Spieth at 18-1, Max Homa at 22-1, Tony Finau at 35-1, and Sungjae Im at 40-1 odds.
Spieth has struggled mightily this season, plus, he missed the cut at this event in 2023. He's won at Colonial eight years ago in 2016, so the Dallas native will look to set aside his miscues in an effort to record his 14th PGA Tour win, which would be Spieth's first since the 2022 RBC Heritage.
Homa contended at Augusta National with Scheffler until the back-nine, when a poor tee shot halted the Californian's momentum. Homa has fluctuated with his finishes in 2024, recording a T3 at The Masters, followed by T55 at the RBC Heritage, a T8 at the Wells Fargo Championship, which he's previously won twice, and a lackluster T35 finish at Valhalla this past week.
Tony Finau and Sungjae Im are the final noteworthy golfers to focus on at their current price. Finau recorded a T2 finish at the Houston Open, and since late March, he's added another T12 at the RBC Heritage and T18 at the PGA Championship. Ranked 14th strokes gained: approaching the green, Finau is an intriguing prospect at 35-1. Especially since he wound up missing the cut at Colonial in 2023 after recording a T4 finish in 2022.
Im only has two top-ten finishes in 14 events played this season, but he's rounding into form. A missed cut at Valhalla stopped the momentum from back-to-back T12 and T4 finishes at the RBC Heritage and Wells Fargo Championship Signature Events. However, the South Korean native has a T15 and T10 finish, along with two missed cuts at Colonial, since 2020.
CHARLES SCHWAB CHALLENGE BETTING DATA
| GOLFER | PERCENTAGE OF BETS |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 22.22% |
| Justin Rose | 15.56% |
| Sungjae Im | 12.37% |
| Tony Finau | 7.66% |
| Austin Eckroat | 4.17% |
SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER (22.22%)
Over 22 percent of the betting handle is already on Scheffler, despite the extremely short price at +280 odds. He's never won this event, although a T3 finish in 2023 was a result of going 2-over-par in Round 3.
Ranking first in nearly every strokes gained metric, excluding putting, we saw Scheffler go 4-under-par or better in three of four rounds at Valhalla, saving his best effort for the last round. The off-the-course incident that the World No. 1 experienced at Valhalla likely played a role in playing poorly on Saturday.
Heading back to Texas and competing at a course he's fared well at in past appearances, plus the added motivation of never winning this event, explains why so many bettors are bullish on Scheffler to record his fifth win in the past seven events played.
JUSTIN ROSE (15.56%)
A T12 finish at Colonial in 2023 has left bettors feeling confident about Justin Rose's outlook at the Charles Schwab Challenge this week.
A T6 finish at the PGA Championship is the best outing we've seen from the Englishman all season, so he certainly has some momentum heading down to Dallas. At 55-1, an outright ticket on Rose is extremely lucrative if he maintains his play at Colonial this week, which is why over 15 percent of the handle is going toward the 43-year-old golfer ahead of Thursday's opening round.
SUNGJAE IM (12.37%)
Sungjae Im, despite missing the cut at Valhalla, is garnering 12 percent of bets in the outright winner market for the Charles Schwab Challenge this week.
Im only has two career wins, neither a Colonial, although he ranks 38th strokes gained: off-the-tee and 41st in driving accuracy rate. The South Korean is also 44th in hole proximity, although his irons and putter have to improve to return value as an outright bet at Colonial.
A T10 finish in 2020 and a T15 finish in 2022 at this event are being valued more heavily than missed cuts from Im in 2023 and 2021 at Colonial. A T12 at RBC Heritage and T4 at the Wells Fargo Championship could also be contributors to why bettors are so bullish on Im to turn his game around this week, available at 35-1 odds in the outright winner betting market.
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GOLF ODDS
Matt is an avid writer, editor, and researcher. He enjoys analyzing the game within the game which is fantasy sports and sports betting. Music is another constant in his daily life. Matt loves spending time with his wife and three pets. He likes to read, listen to podcasts, and is constantly motivated to create the most accurate and engaging content in the sports betting industry.