PGA Power Rankings: Top 5 Golfers for Valero Texas Open

PGA Power Rankings: Top 5 Golfers for Valero Texas Open

The PGA Tour stays in the Lone Star State for its next event, held at TPC San Antonio's Oaks Course for the 2024 Valero Texas Open.

Scottie Scheffler's putting regressed back to the mean during the Texas Children's Houston Open, especially on Sunday. The No. 1 golfer in the FedExCup standings was attempting to win three consecutive events but couldn't sink a five-foot birdie putt on the 18th hole to force a playoff against Stephen Jaeger on Sunday. We did recommend Jaeger at +4500 odds in the outright market last week, compared to +260 for Scheffler, so this was a huge gain for our betting bankroll heading into Valero.

PGA handicapper Matt MacKay is here to share his top PGA Tour outright bets to wager prior to the start of Round 1 on Thursday morning from TPC San Antonio.

VALERO TEXAS OPEN DATE, START TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH

• Date: April 4 - 7, 2024
• Where: TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course), San Antonio, Texas
• Where to Watch: ESPN+, Golf Channel, NBC

VALERO TEXAS OPEN COURSE

TPC San Antonio is played on the Oaks Course, which is a par 72 that runs north of 7,400 yards. Established by Pete Dye and Greg Norman back in 2009, the first cut of rough stands tall at 2.5 inches, while the thickest rough is four inches, similar to what players dealt with during the Florida Swing.

With four par 3s and four par 5s, there are plenty of birdie and bogey opportunities on the Oaks Course. Sprawling sand bunkers protect most of the overseeded Bermuda-Poa greens that run 11.5 feet via Stimpmeter, nearly a foot slower than the PGA Tour default.

Fairway width varies here, along with plenty of trees that create difficult lies out of the tall rough. Meandering creeks and other water hazards are present, but most importantly, players will need to be sharp with their ball-striking off-the-tee and on approach.

VALERO TEXAS OPEN POWER RANKINGS

VALERO TEXAS OPEN POWER RANKINGS

1. Hideki Matsuyama (+2000) CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS

We're bullish on Hideki Matsuyama based on his latest production on the links. The Japanese native won outright at Genesis, following it up with a T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a T6 at The PLAYERS Championship. He's well rested entering Valero, where he logged a T15 finish in 2023 (-7), going -5-under-par during the final two rounds. Ranked 38th SG: Approach and first SG: Around the Green, Matsuyama's putting is the only thing to be worried about. At +2000 odds, we're staking half a unit on Matsuyama to win for the 10th time on the PGA Tour.

2. Brian Harman (+3500) CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS

The last time we saw Brian Harman play TPC San Antonio, he missed the cut at even par in 2019. That was five years ago though, and Harman has since added a major win to his resumé. He was one putt away from forcing a playoff against Scheffler at The PLAYERS Championship a couple of weeks ago, so Harman is rounding into form at the right time. Ranked 50th SG: Approach, 28th SG: Putting, and 48th for driving accuracy, Harman's a great prospect to target in the outright betting market at +3500 odds. Let's wager 0.25 units on Harman to breakthrough on the Oaks Course this weekend.

3. Billy Horschel (+3500) CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS

Billy Horschel has seven career wins on the PGA Tour but he's been riding a two-year slump. That could change this weekend. Horschel ranks 14th SG: Putting, 39th SG: Off-the-Tee, and 27th SG: Tee-to-Green. He's also very solid with the driver, ranking 32nd in total driving. Yes, he missed the cut at Valero in 2019, but back-to-back finishes of T12 and T7 entering Thursday's opening round is enough to justify a 0.25 unit wager on Horschel at TPC San Antonio this week.

4. Lucas Glover (+8000) CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS

It hasn't been the fairy tale season we saw a year ago, but Lucas Glover is coming off of his best finish in 2024, managing an 11th-place finish at Valspar. Glover ranks 23rd SG: Approach and 10th SG: Around the Green. The putter remains an issue, but his driver is an asset, ranking 15th in accuracy rate. Glover has fared well at this event in past appearances, including a T18 in 2022 and fourth-place finish in 2021. A 0.10 unit wager returns eight units at +8000 in the outright market, so we're gaining quite a bit by investing in Glover to win his seventh career event on the PGA Tour this week.

5. Brendon Todd (+8000) CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS

It's been five years since Brendon Todd took the winning podium but he's still playing really good golf in 2024. The "Toddfather" has only logged one T10 finish or better this season but he's ranked 10th SG: Putting and 25th SG: Around the Green. Todd is also 17th in driving accuracy rate, so if he avoids errant lies in the tall rough, he'll have a leg up on a lot of players in the field. Approach shots haven't been kind to him in 2024 but he managed a T8 finish at Valero in 2022, so this is a course he can exploit to climb the leaderboard. A final 0.10 unit wager is sufficient to place on Todd to end his five-year winless drought.

GOLF ODDS

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