2024 John Deere Classic Odds: Bettors Backing Denny McCarthy at TPC Deere Run
2024 John Deere Classic Odds: Bettors Backing Denny McCarthy at TPC Deere Run
The PGA Tour season heads to Silvis, Illinois next for the 2024 John Deere Classic. Located at TPC Deere Run, a former Arabian horse farm, it's a scenic par 71 track that is set to yield a lot of low scores and birdie opportunities like we saw during the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
Last week, Cam Davis was the most heavily bet golfer in the outright winner market at 70-1 odds. Despite my skepticism around Davis, the Aussie won the RMC for the second time in his career, thanks to Akshay Bhatia three-putting on the 72nd hole. Ironically, Davis' only two victories on the PGA Tour have both come at Detroit Golf Club.
Min Woo Lee also garnered 10.4 percent of all outright wagers at the RMC, making a run late but falling one stroke shy of forcing a playoff against Davis with a bogey on the 18th hole on Sunday.
This week, bettors find themselves loading up on Denny McCarthy, who is still searching for his first outright win since joining the PGA Tour in 2015. A playoff loss at Valero to Bhatia earlier this year was his best opportunity of the season, while McCarthy also has one other runner-up finish in 182 events played.
Patrick Cantlay's withdrawal from the John Deere Classic has changed a lot of the betting odds in the outright market, as he was the previous outright betting favorite at 9-1. Jordan Spieth, a two-time winner at the JDC, is the new favorite at 16-1, followed by Sungjae Im and defending champion, Sepp Straka.
PGA handicapper Matt MacKay returns with his latest analysis of the current betting data for the 2024 John Deere Classic, plus odds for the outright winner market. As always, Round 1 tees off on Thursday morning, so make sure to place your outright wagers beforehand.
2024 JOHN DEERE CLASSIC ODDS
| GOLFER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Jordan Spieth | +1600 |
| Sungjae Im | +1800 |
| Sepp Straka | +1800 |
| Aaron Rai | +2200 |
| Maverick McNealy | +2500 |
| Keith Mitchell | +2500 |
| Davis Thompson | +2800 |
| Denny McCarthy | +2800 |
| Jason Day | +3000 |
| J.T. Poston | +3300 |
| Nick Dunlap | +3500 |
| Sam Stevens | +4000 |
| Kevin Yu | +4500 |
| Eric Cole | +5500 |
| Beau Hossler | +5500 |
| Taylor Montgomery | +5500 |
Jordan Spieth has had a rough 2024 after starting with three top-ten finishes in the first three months of the season. Six consecutive finishes outside of the top-25, including a missed cut, are far from encouraging results. Perhaps a return to TPC Deere Run can boost Spieth's play, winning this event in 2013 and 2015.
Sepp Straka is 18-1 and torched the field in Round 4 last year, going 9-under-par on Sunday to surge into the outright win. Straka is among the most accurate drivers on the PGA Tour, but his putting needs to be refined.
Aaron Rai, who contended all the way up until the last hole at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, enters the John Deere Classic at 22-1 odds. He was 30-1 ahead of Round 1 at Detroit Golf Club, so oddsmakers are putting a bit more respect on the ball-striker's game, despite not having an outright win on the PGA Tour.
Davis Thompson is a name to keep an eye on, as the 24-year-old recorded a runner-up finish this past week at Detroit Golf Club. Thompson is 28-1 with the latest outright odds and has three top-ten finishes in his last six events played, including a pair of runner-ups.
J.T. Poston won the 2022 JDC at -21-under-par, winning by three strokes over Emiliano Grillo and Christian Bezuidenhout. Poston is currently 35-1, which is good value considering his outright win in 2022 and T6 finish here in 2023.
Michael Kim, who has the course record for lowest score at 27-under-par, set back in 2018, is currently available at 80-1 odds in the outright market. He's an enticing prospect to wager, despite carding a T52 finish at the RMC last week.
JOHN DEERE CLASSIC BETTING DATA
| GOLFER | PERCENTAGE OF BETS |
|---|---|
| Denny McCarthy | 11.88% |
| Sungjae Im | 7.5% |
| Sepp Straka | 6.49% |
| Jordan Spieth | 6.25% |
DENNY MCCARTHY (11.88%)
Bettors are hammering Denny McCarthy to finally breakthrough with his first win on the PGA Tour this week. McCarthy has had three consecutive finishes outside the top-25 though, with his last top-ten recorded at the Wells Fargo Championship nearly two months ago.
Ranked second strokes gained: putting, McCarthy's flat stick will need to carry the load for his lackluster irons and driver. He does rank 20th strokes gained: around the green, but only hitting 60 percent of greens in regulation is a big concern.
Previous finishes at this event include T6 in 2023 and 2022, following a missed cut in 2021.
SUNGJAE IM (7.5%)
Sungjae Im is garnering over seven percent of outright wagers as the second betting favorite at 18-1 odds this week.
Im has only competed at TPC Deere Run once in the last three years, winding up with a forgettable T47 finish in 2021. A T26 in 2019 was better, but he still hasn't found a ton of success at this course in the past five years.
Ranked 27th strokes gained: off-the-tee, 39th driving accuracy, and top-40 for birdie average, par 4 scoring, and one-putt percentage, there's some aspects of Im's game that warrant a one-unit investment this week.
SEPP STRAKA (6.49%)
2023 JDC winner, Sepp Straka, naturally is receiving 6.5 percent of the betting handle in the outright winner market ahead of his return.
Straka is 18-1 alongside Im, making him the second betting favorite. Straka has had a solid 2024 campaign, including four top-ten finishes, with back-to-back T5s at Charles Schwab Challenge and the Memorial Tournament roughly a month ago.
The Austrian ranks 46th total strokes gained, including 43rd tee-to-green, 33rd off-the-tee, and 32nd on approach. Putting and around-the-green metrics are lackluster, but Straka does rank second in driving accuracy rate, which helps create ideal lies to yield strong approach shots.
Finding 67.7 percent of greens in regulation is a strong number as well. Unfortunately, he's 130th in birdie average this year and tends to score low in Round 1, while finishing with higher scores in the later rounds.
Previous finishes at JDC include the outright win in 2023, missed cut in 2021, and T26 in 2019.
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GOLF ODDS
Matt is an avid writer, editor, and researcher. He enjoys analyzing the game within the game which is fantasy sports and sports betting. Music is another constant in his daily life. Matt loves spending time with his wife and three pets. He likes to read, listen to podcasts, and is constantly motivated to create the most accurate and engaging content in the sports betting industry.