PGA Power Rankings: Top 5 Golfers for Valspar Championship
PGA Power Rankings: Top 5 Golfers for Valspar Championship
The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing at the Valspar Championship this week, heading from Jacksonville to outside Tampa Bay at Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course) in Palm Harbor, Florida.
Scottie Scheffler's back-to-back wins at TPC Sawgrass during The PLAYERS Championship came after Wyndham Clark lipped a tying birdie putt on the 18th hole, which would've forced a playoff. Brian Harman and Xander Schauffele also had birdie putts at -19-under-par to force a playoff, but neither of them converted.
Will Valspar give us an equal dose of theatrics this week? Scheffler and other highly-ranked FedExCup golfers won't be in attendance at Innisbrook this week, although there are still plenty of big names. Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, and Brian Harman are the household names competing in a field of 155 golfers, so there should be plenty of quality golf played on one of the tougher PGA Tour courses in the Sunshine State.
PGA handicapper Matt MacKay returns to analyze the PGA Tour outright betting market ahead of the first round at the Valspar Championship, which tees off early Thursday morning.
VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP DATE, START TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: March 21 - 24, 2024
- Where: Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course), Palm Harbor, Florida
- Where to Watch: ESPN+, Golf Channel, NBC
VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP COURSE
Innisbrook's Copperhead Course is a par 71 track that runs over 7,300 yards. Replete with five par 3s and four par 5s, golfers will need to favor precision over power at this venue.
Rough stands closer to four inches than three, plus the Bermudagrass greens are only 5,800 square feet on average. Combine this with a putting velocity expected to be between 12 and 12.5 feet, which is slower than 13 feet we saw at TPC Sawgrass, and scorecards could be all over the place.
The notorious "Snake Pit" is a final three-hole stretch from 16-18 that challenges golfers to remain dialed into the fairways and flagsticks. Water, of course, is all over the place, along with the tall rough to punish errant lies. There's a reason we've seen winning scorecards of -10-under-par or higher in seven of the past 10 events held at Copperhead.
VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS
| GOLFER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Xander Schauffele | 650 |
| Sam Burns | 1100 |
| Justin Thomas | 1400 |
| Jordan Spieth | 1600 |
| Tony Finau | 2200 |
| Brian Harman | 2200 |
| Cameron Young | 2200 |
| Sungjae Im | 2800 |
| Min Woo Lee | 3000 |
| Nick Taylor | 3500 |
VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP POWER RANKINGS
1. Justin Thomas (+1400) CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
Justin Thomas managed a T10 finish at Valspar in 2023. He has yet to take the winning podium in 2024, just like his down year last season, but Thomas has performed well when he makes the cut, going T3, T6, T12, and T12.
Ranked sixth SG: Approach and 10th SG: Tee-to-Green, the putter is the only thing holding Thomas back from sitting atop the leaderboard every week. +1400 is solid value to acquire, so let's stake half a unit on J.T. to end a two-year outright win drought.
2. Brian Harman (+2200) CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
Brian Harman isn't being discussed nearly enough following a strong final three rounds played at TPC Sawgrass this past week. The left-handed golfer ran the table at The Open Championship a year ago, winning his first major after 12 years on the PGA Tour. Now, he seems to be playing with full confidence.
Ranked 46th SG: Approach, 22nd SG: Putting, and 47th SG: Around the Green, Harman is worth a quarter unit wager at +2200 odds in the outright betting market. Bettors should be aware that his struggles are well-documented at Valspar, only making the cut once in six visits, although his lone advancement did pay off with a T5 finish in 2022, going -3-under-par or better in all four rounds.
3. Nick Taylor (+3500) CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
Copperhead seems to be the perfect course for Nick Taylor to seize his second win of the season. The Canadian ranks inside the top 20 for SG: Putting and SG: Approach, signaling his dual-threat ability to find flag sticks and sink putts.
+3500 is way too low based on Taylor's talent-level, so we're obligated to stake a quarter unit on this line. In 2023, Taylor wound up T10 (-3), a vast improvement from T70 in 2022 after going +8 in the final round.
4. Doug Ghim (+5000) CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
Flying pretty far under the radar entering this week, Doug Ghim is a good value to acquire at +5000 odds in the outright market. Yes, he has no career wins on the PGA Tour since joining in 2020, but the 27-year-old American is consistently producing finishes T16 or better in five straight events.
A T27 finish at Valspar in 2023 is encouraging, especially with a +3 round on Saturday. Ghim ranks fourth in total strokes gained, including 13th SG: Approach and 32nd SG: Putting. In fact, he's 40th or better in all six SG metrics, a rarity.
Not to mention, Ghim is also 15th scrambling and averages over 4.2 birdies per round. He's a screaming value at this number available on FanDuel Sportsbook.
5. Billy Horschel (+8000) CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
Florida's own Billy Horschel will make an appearance at Valspar. He hasn't competed here in recent years, but Horschel should be well-rested following a missed cut at The PLAYERS Championship last week.
Horschel has won seven events in his career but is looking to end a two-year drought at Copperhead. His game fits this course, ranking 12th SG: Putting and 46th SG: Off-the-Tee in 2024.
The flat stick is certainly his best asset, although Horschel is also one of the most accurate drivers in the field, ranked 29th in this category. Third for greens in regulation percentage, at a whopping 75.6 percent, signals that the Floridian has the game and talent to deliver an outright win at +8000 odds.
We're wrapping up Valspar with a 0.10 unit wager on Horschel at this lucrative number in the outright betting market.
GOLF ODDS
Matt is an avid writer, editor, and researcher. He enjoys analyzing the game within the game which is fantasy sports and sports betting. Music is another constant in his daily life. Matt loves spending time with his wife and three pets. He likes to read, listen to podcasts, and is constantly motivated to create the most accurate and engaging content in the sports betting industry.