Caleb Williams NFL Draft Odds: Is Caleb Williams a Lock to Go First Overall In the 2024 NFL Draft?
Caleb Williams NFL Draft Odds: Is Caleb Williams a Lock to Go First Overall In the 2024 NFL Draft?
The 2024 NFL Draft is happening this week! This year, the NFL Draft will be held in Detroit, Michigan, at Campus Martius Park and Hart Plaza.
Caleb Williams has been the consensus No. 1 overall draft pick for many months, even before his final year as quarterback at USC concluded. The Chicago Bears are drafting first thanks to Carolina finishing with the worst record in the league last season, as a result of the trade made between the Bears and Panthers last offseason, which brought in wide receiver D.J. Moore to bolster Chicago's offense.
Bears' general manager Ryan Poles' decision to move off of Justin Fields earlier in free agency signals that Williams is almost assuredly a lock to be selected with the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. NFL handicapper and draft analyst Matt MacKay is back to provide betting insight surrounding Williams' betting markets and more ahead of Round 1 getting underway on Thursday night.
NFL DRAFT DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
CALEB WILLIAMS NFL DRAFT ODDS
Caleb Williams put up monster numbers at USC during his three years as a starter under head coach Lincoln Riley. Williams won the Heisman Trophy in 2022 after recording over 4,500 passing yards and a ridiculous 7:1 touchdown to interception ratio, finishing with 42 touchdown passes and only five interceptions.
In 2023, Williams' completion rate went up from 66.6 percent to 68.6 percent, although his passing volume dropped by over 100 attempts. He didn't have much of a defense to rely on with the Trojans, constantly being tasked with making highlight reel plays to a speedy group of wideouts that performed well within Riley's scheme.
During all three years at USC, Williams never threw more than five interceptions in a season. His accuracy, mobility, and big arm are all reasons why scouts and oddsmakers are confident he'll be taken as the first player off of the board on Thursday night. Touted as a generational talent, Williams is set to become Chicago's next franchise quarterback.
NFL DRAFT ODDS - FIRST OVERALL PICK
| 2024 NFL DRAFT PROSPECT | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | -20000 |
| Jayden Daniels | +7500 |
| Drake Maye | +9500 |
| Bo Nix | +10000 |
| J.J. McCarthy | +10000 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | +10000 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | +20000 |
| Brock Bowers | +30000 |
The odds on Williams being selected No. 1 overall are incredibly short at -200-1 at FanDuel Sportsbook. While there are other quality quarterbacks in the 2024 NFL draft class, none compare to the hype and production Williams maintained during his collegiate career at USC. The Bears also own the ninth overall pick as well, so they may continue to stockpile weapons for Williams to utilize during his rookie campaign.
It's tempting to sprinkle on other quarterbacks to be taken at 75-1 odds or longer, however, there's less than a one percent probability that this happens. Wait until the second overall pick to get creative with NFL Draft futures, as there should be plenty of chaos and unpredicted outcomes between picks 2-32 this year.
NFL DRAFT ODDS - SECOND OVERALL PICK
| 2024 NFL DRAFT PROSPECT | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | -145 |
| Drake Maye | +135 |
| J.J. McCarthy | +1800 |
| Bo Nix | +10000 |
| Brock Bowers | +10000 |
| Caleb Williams | +10000 |
| Joe Alt | +10000 |
| Malik Nabers | +10000 |
Speaking of the second overall draft pick futures markets, we see that oddsmakers have Caleb Williams at 100-1 to be drafted by Washington at number two. This once again gives us insight into the minuscule chances that the Bears pass on Williams with the top pick in the NFL Draft.
It gets interesting with the other top quarterbacks here, as Washington's offense has some nice pieces and already moved off of the Sam Howell experiment earlier this offseason. The Commanders are currently slight favorites to draft 2023 Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels out of LSU, with -145 odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Drake Maye is the other favorite behind Daniels to be drafted by Washington at +135 odds. Maye was a one-man wrecking crew during his tenure at UNC, plus, he's a mobile quarterback that is 6-4 and 230 pounds. His big-frame and dual-threat skillset make him an intriguing prospect, but Daniels is currently the top signal caller linked to Washington, who just hired Dan Quinn as its head coach to replace Ron Rivera.
J.J. McCarthy has been the biggest riser in draft odds, so at +1800 odds to be drafted as the second overall pick on Thursday night, it may be worth staking a 0.10 unit wager on the Commanders to opt for the National Championship winning quarterback as a surprise, returning a nice payout.
CALEB WILLIAMS REG SEASON TOTAL PASSING YARDS 2024-25 ROOKIE YEAR ODDS
| Passing Yards | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 3350.5 | -112 |
| Under 3350.5 | -112 |
Oddsmakers at FanDuel Sportsbook have already released Caleb Williams' passing yards prop for the 2024-25 NFL season. Currently, the line total is set to 3,350.5 yards, with -112 odds in either direction.
For context, 16 NFL quarterbacks threw for over 3,350 yards in 2023. These included rookie C.J. Stroud with 4,108 total passing yards, Jordan Love with 4,159 yards during his first year as a starter in Green Bay, and even 3,946 yards recorded by Sam Howell.
Williams hit this mark at USC in each of his final two seasons with the Trojans, finishing with 3,633 passing yards across 12 games in 2023. Assuming he starts right away for Chicago and can stay healthy for the majority of his rookie season, it's very reasonable to think that Williams can eclipse 3,350 passing yards in 2024. The addition of new OC Shane Waldron, replacing Luke Getsy, is huge, as Geno Smith recorded 3,624 passing yards under Waldron in 2023.
Assuming the Bears draft another top wide receiver at No. 9 or later in the draft, inheriting D.J. Moore and a proven offensive coordinator sets Williams up for a late of success as a passer in Chicago. A one-unit wager on over 3,350.5 passing yards at -112 odds is warranted here.
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NFL DRAFT ODDS
Matt is an avid writer, editor, and researcher. He enjoys analyzing the game within the game which is fantasy sports and sports betting. Music is another constant in his daily life. Matt loves spending time with his wife and three pets. He likes to read, listen to podcasts, and is constantly motivated to create the most accurate and engaging content in the sports betting industry.