J.J. McCarthy NFL Draft Odds: Where Will J.J. McCarthy Be Selected In The 2024 NFL Draft?

J.J. McCarthy NFL Draft Odds: Where Will J.J. McCarthy Be Selected In The 2024 NFL Draft?

The 2024 NFL Draft is only one sleep away! There is quite a bit of intrigue still surrounding the top rookie prospects and where they will ultimately wind up being selected on Thursday night.

J.J. McCarthy is arguably one of the biggest risers in the draft process following his successful career at the University of Michigan. Led by head coach Jim Harbaugh, who is now the head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers, McCarthy and the Wolverines went a perfect 15-0 in 2023 to win the National Championship game over the Washington Huskies. This also included a hard-fought, nail-biter win over Alabama during the first playoff game that took place during the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California.

As always, there are a handful of NFL teams with high draft capital desperately looking to find their new franchise quarterback. McCarthy is undoubtedly high on a lot of general managers' draft boards, so it's going to be a lot of fun trying to predict where and when he gets selected on Thursday night.

NFL handicapper and NFL Draft analyst Matt MacKay is back with his latest betting insight and analysis to determine the best betting markets and odds for J.J. McCarthy's draft stock during Round 1 on Thursday night from Detroit, Michigan.

NFL DRAFT DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH

• When: April 25-27, 2024
• Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
• Where to Watch: ESPN, ESPN2, ABC, NFL Network

J.J. MCCARTHY NFL DRAFT ODDS

Michigan's 25-year National Championship drought was ended with J.J. McCarthy as the signal-caller in Ann Arbor. Despite all of his success with the Wolverines, losing only one game in 2022 and 2023 combined, on top of beating Alabama en route to a National Championship victory, critics focus on McCarthy's mediocre passing numbers.

The offense under Jim Harbaugh was a run-centric, heavy personnel scheme that resulted in running back Blake Corum handling the majority of touches. It's not a knock on McCarthy at all, who managed to finish 2023 with a career-high 72.3 percent completion rate.

McCarthy threw for 22 touchdowns in 2022 and 2023, while reducing his interception total from five to four this past season. His mobility and elusiveness in the pocket is another aspect of McCarthy's game that is enticing for NFL teams.

McCarthy's rushing production is modest, churning out 3.2 YPC and three rushing touchdowns on 64 carries in 2023. However, it's more so McCarthy's ability to be a playmaker behind the line of scrimmage, evading pressure and finding the open target, that truly makes him a special talent and a big riser on NFL draft boards.

NFL DRAFT ODDS - SECOND OVERALL PICK

McCarthy's betting market truly begins with the second overall draft pick. Caleb Williams is -20000 to be selected first by the Chicago Bears, so we're going right to No. 2.

Washington moved off of Sam Howell in the offseason and has the ability to draft McCarthy, Drake Maye, or Jayden Daniels with the second overall pick. The Commanders' decision will send ripple effects throughout the remainder of Round 1.

Daniels' Heisman winning year at LSU has him pegged as the frontrunner to be selected by Washington, who just hired OC Kliff Kingsbury to bolster the play-calling in their new regime with head coach Dan Quinn. Daniels stands to benefit from Kingsbury's air raid scheme and offensive weapons like Terry McLaurin, Austin Ekeler, and Jahan Dotson.

A 0.10 unit wager on McCarthy at 18-1 odds doesn't hurt, but don't go too big here on him in the second overall pick NFL Draft futures market ahead of Thursday night.

NFL DRAFT ODDS - THIRD OVERALL PICK

The third overall pick is where we see McCarthy's odds shorten from 18-1 to roughly 4-1. Numerous reports, including from Adam Schefter, suggest that the Minnesota Vikings, who lost Kirk Cousins to Atlanta during free agency, have been an aggressive suitor to trade up to the third overall pick.

If this happens, it'll either be for Drake Maye or J.J. McCarthy. Speculation surrounding Maye's ties to Vikings' offensive assistant Josh McCown, who coached Maye during high school, could be a big reason why we're seeing -145 odds on Maye at No. 3.

New England owns the third overall draft pick and they also need to address their quarterback room. However, new head coach Jerod Mayo, along with new general manager Eliot Wolf, now have control over the Patriots' personnel decisions for the first time in over two decades following Bill Belichick's departure.

This is a good spot to lay a full unit on McCarthy at +430 odds, since there's so much volatility involved with what New England opts to do with its third overall pick. Whether it winds up being New England, Minnesota, or the New York Giants, McCarthy's availability at number three will definitely attract several quarterback-needy teams.

NFL DRAFT ODDS - FOURTH OVERALL PICK

The odds continue to grow shorter for McCarthy within the fourth overall pick betting market. The Arizona Cardinals are fourth on the draft board but they have an aggressive general manager in Monti Ossenfort. Assuming the Cardinals stay at fourth and don't agree to trade down for more picks, as they did in 2023, then oddsmakers valuing wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. at -220 odds makes a lot of sense.

However, if they do agree to trade down to placate another team desperate to draft their franchise quarterback, McCarthy's value at +350 odds becomes enormous. Another full-unit investment is warranted in case this trade-down scenario plays out.

NFL DRAFT ODDS - FIFTH OVERALL PICK

At fifth overall, we see the shortest odds for J.J. McCarthy to be drafted. Ironically, it would be reuniting with his former head coach, Jim Harbaugh, unless the Chargers also trade down from their fifth overall pick.

It's unlikely that the Chargers opt to trade out of this pick though, since they have moved off of Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, and Austin Ekeler this offseason. A top-tier skilled player would benefit Los Angeles greatly, plus they still have Justin Herbert on their roster. This is why wide receiver Malik Nabers has the shortest odds in the fifth overall pick betting market at +230.

If the Chargers agree to trade Herbert on draft night with McCarthy still available on the draft board, don't say we didn't tell you ahead of time. Harbaugh has spoked glowingly of his former signal-caller during his time at Michigan, as well as this offseason during his transition back into the NFL. At +320 odds, Vegas oddsmakers seem to think that fifth overall may wind up being the spot that McCarthy gets drafted on Thursday night.

NFL DRAFT ODDS - TEAM TO DRAFT J.J. MCCARTHY

The Minnesota Vikings are the favorite team to wind up drafting J.J. McCarthy at +170 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook. This would have to be as a result from their decision to trade up into the top-five, as the Vikings currently have the 11th and 23rd overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

The Patriots, Giants, and Broncos are the other three teams oddsmakers view as likely destinations for McCarthy to land on Thursday night. The Giants are another team rumored to be seeking a trade up into the third spot for a new quarterback, despite recently awarding Daniel Jones with a big contract extension. Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos must address their quarterback room to find a viable starter for the 2024 season under head coach Sean Payton.

If these odds prove accurate on Thursday night, then hammering the Vikings at +170 as the team to draft J.J. McCarthy, parlayed with McCarthy's third or fourth overall draft pick odds at +430 and +350, would result in a lucrative payout for NFL Draft bettors. The tough question is whether the team that trades up to No. 3 will value McCarthy more than Maye, who oddsmakers still value as the likely number three overall draft pick on Thursday night.

I'd personally bet a full unit on McCarthy's +430 third overall pick and +350 fourth overall pick odds. The Vikings and Giants are also the two teams I'd put an additional one unit wager on in the Team To Draft J.J. McCarthy betting market ahead of the start of Round 1.

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NFL DRAFT ODDS

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